Bitcoin Accumulation Could Continue Until July if Previous Patterns Repeat

The best time to accumulate is when prices are low. Even though Bitcoin has had a huge rally this week the digital asset is still 75% down from its all-time high. Looking at previous accumulation periods may offer some insight into the current market situation.
200 Days of Accumulation
Last time Bitcoin went through a major boom bust cycle was in 2014 and 2015 when it dropped by a similar amount and most of the mainstream media and naysayers wrote the asset off. BTC fell from $1,130 to around $200 and the chart pattern virtually mirrored what happened in 2018.
During that bear cycle the accumulation period was around 216 days from January to August 2015. Only after this did Bitcoin begin to climb again throughout 2016 and 2017 recording an epic 9900% gain to its all-time peak in December.
Looking at current charts indicates that we could be half way through this accumulation phase, market by this week’s big green candle. If the pattern repeats itself charts will remain sideways until July when things really start to ramp up again.

$BTC Accumulation Pattern
It took Bitcoin 216 days for accumulation from bottom to spring in 2015
If this were accumulation, this week's $1000 candle would be the exact middle of 216 accumulation days and would end on July 19th, 2019
Pure speculation but fun to compare pic.twitter.com/I6YfHiqwdW
— Josh Rager (@Josh_Rager) April 5, 2019

Buying Bitcoin at $5,000 does not sound as good as $3,600 but with a greater chance of increasing than dumping further it becomes a more attractive investment, at least in the short term. Most investors will not catch the absolute bottom for Bitcoin which may well have been on December 15 when it dumped to $3,200.
More Bullish Momentum Above 200 MA
Fundstrat’s Thomas Lee pointed out that there will be more bullish momentum since Bitcoin has crossed above the 200 day moving average for the first time since March 2018. Many analysts would consider this a sign of trend reversal and this week’s rally could have served as the end of crypto winter.

1/ CRYPTO Definitely a positive development that #Bitcoin is now above its 200D mov. avg.–Many consider P>200D as sign of $BTC in positive trend–BTC acts significantly better P>200D, a win-ratio of 80% vs 36% when P<200D
source: data scientists @fundstrat_ken @AlexKernA pic.twitter.com/Ru19HLlE4G
— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) April 2, 2019

Another interesting statistic is that Bitcoin generally generates all of its performance within just ten days of each year and April second was one of them. Most experienced traders will agree that trying to time the market is pretty futile, especially with crypto which is still clearly extremely volatile.
The crypto bull made another one of his famous predictions this week when he appeared on CNBC and stated that the fair price for Bitcoin at the moment is $14,000. The figure was derived from multiplying the cost of mining by three.
Three days after the big pump Bitcoin is holding on to its gains and forming new support and resistance levels. It peaked at $5,300 but has consolidated just above $5,000 over the past 24 hours or so. At the time of writing BTC was trading marginally down on the day at $4,950. Many industry analysts are still confident that BTC could move all the way back up to $6,000 in the next few weeks however.
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How Bitcoin Could Reach $150,000 in The Next Cycle Peak

All markets move in cycles, and crypto is no exception. The only major difference is that cycles in this market have been more compressed since Bitcoin is just ten years old. There have been three major cycle peaks so far over the past decade and analysts have been using them to predict the next one.
$150,000 BTC by July 2023
The first cycle took 329 days to peak and occurred in 2011 when Bitcoin prices hit a high of just below $32. A bear market followed until the next peak which came in 2014 with BTC prices topping out at around $1,180.
Then came the big downturn of 2014 – 2015 when Bitcoin lost over 80%, as it has done again this time, falling to below $200. The upswing took over 20 months to initiate and began in late 2015 leading to the previous peak of just below $20,000 in the third cycle peak of late 2017.
Crypto analyst Josh Rager has observed these cyclical patterns and concluded that each cycle has had exactly 574 days added to it in order to reach the next peak. Using this figure he has made an attempt at predicting the next peak.

The next Bitcoin cycle should peak out in July 2023 and could reach a price at $150,000 or more per Bitcoin
Cycle Peak Prices:2011: $312014: $1,1772017: $19,7642023: ??? ($150,000+ projected) pic.twitter.com/ikicZbJRhe
— Josh Rager (@Josh_Rager) March 31, 2019

A 574 day addition to the current cycle would put the next Bitcoin peak in mid-2023, 2051 days after the previous one. The price estimate at this peak is around $150,000 which is not entirely implausible looking at the chart patterns.
Bitcoin Halving to Initiate Trend Reversal
This estimation falls in line with other predictions that align a major trend reversal and the end of the crypto winter with Bitcoin’s halving in May next year. The decrease in block reward and supply could compress these cycles with some claiming that a new all-time high will come in 2021.
Either way, the prediction is bullish in the long term but spells more gloom and sideways trading for the rest of 2019. Institutional investors are looking long term though and some, such as New York’s Greyscale Investments, have researched halving events to identify entry points.
Two previous halving events in 2012 and 2016 have been followed by large upside momentum and it is expected that the 2020 one will have the same effect. This could quite plausibly tie in with the cycle peak prediction and create a massive bull run for Bitcoin and crypto markets during 2021 and 2022.
At the moment Bitcoin is still struggling to overcome its four month resistance barrier at $4,200. BTC has hit this level a couple of times recently but instantly bounced off it. Over the past week it has hovered around the $4,100 range but still cannot muster enough bullish momentum to take it further just yet. The longer term outlook does look very rosy though so now would be the best time to accumulate and hodl and unspent transaction output (UTXO) levels seem to indicate that this is already happening.
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Analyst: Bitcoin Will Break Higher in Next Move Based on 12 Month Trends

Price predictions for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets have been coming thick and fast recently as the bottom appears to be extending and the bears running out of steam. Short term price action will help day traders take quick profits but most people eyeing the industry are in it for the long term. Analysts have been taking a look at the past 12 months for patterns in order to predict the next big movement and some agree that it is more likely to be one to the upside.
Resistance is Futile
Bitcoin has currently returned to its almost four month long resistance level at $4,000. It has not managed to make a sustained break above this price zone since late November when it fell through it in one almighty dump. BTC has only made it to $4,100 three times in four months and has fallen back pretty quickly. The good news is that there has been no major dump down below $3,000 as many had predicted.
That is not to say that this still will not happen yet, but one analyst believes the next move will be to the upside based on long short ratio analysis;

$BTC long short ratio analysis Ive been looking at today.
There is a well established 12 month trend going on.
If this formula holds it implies that Bitcoin will rally 25-50%.
See chart for details.
This tweet will self destruct in 7 days. pic.twitter.com/O3nruTSqLt
— fil₿fil₿ (@filbfilb) March 18, 2019

Observing the well-established twelve month trend, Bitcoin analyst ‘fil₿fil₿’ claims that BTC will rally 25% to 50% if this formula holds. Previous rallies have all been over 25% with the highest at over 50% during April last year when Bitcoin bounced from $6,600 to over $9,000. This year’s rally has seen Bitcoin climb over 28% from its lowest to highest points so far.
Volume Up – Next Move to $5,000?
A similar ratio of over 25% would put BTC back to $5,000 over the coming weeks and this echoes a previous prediction using a different metric. Using the 0.5 Fib level the same analyst has called for more bullish momentum and a move up to $5k by May.

Have been waiting patiently for the past few weekly closes to show volume increase was a mere tease for a market turn around
Looking forward to be bullish but now just isn't the time
In fact, new research shows volume as a whole is down 80% across all exchanges since Dec '17 pic.twitter.com/AV5N1zb2QT
— Josh Rager (@Josh_Rager) March 18, 2019

Daily volume has also been a solid indicator of possible reversal into bullish territory however recent reports of fake volumes and manipulation by exchanges have brought these figures into question. If Coinmarketcap.com can be taken as a true representation of total volume it is currently reported at $9.3 billion for BTC. It has over doubled since the beginning of the year and is holding these levels across all exchanges reported.
However compared to the boom months of late 2017 trading volume is around half of what it was back then. The build in volume shown alongside the four months of sideways trading below $4,000 does look like a strong indication that Bitcoin’s next movement will be a break higher. Once this happens the rest of the crypto market will follow as it has done countless times before. At the time of writing Bitcoin was trading at $4,050, where it has been for the past three days.
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Analyst: Bitcoin Is a Bull, High Possibility of $5,000 by May

With Bitcoin constantly testing a big resistance zone price predictions are coming thick and fast. The longer BTC stays below the $4,000 barrier the more likely a move to the downside will occur. Some analysts however think it could well move above this in the coming months.
Bitcoin in Bullish Territory, Above 0.5 Fib
Over the past week Bitcoin has been trading steadily higher above $3,900. However, BTC has failed to break this level since late February when it hit a monthly high of $4,200, but albeit very briefly. An intraday high of $3,950 was touched a few hours ago but Bitcoin fell back instantly to $3,875. Since then it has rapidly recovered back over $3,900 in the past couple of hours indicating bullish momentum.
Experienced trader and crypto analyst going by the twitter handle of ‘fil₿fil₿’ has produced another couple of charts to attempt a prediction at further moves for Bitcoin. He states that Bitcoin is a bull and has done enough to show this. The significant thing to note is that BTC has remained above the 0.5 Fibonacci level since February 18.

BITCOIN – [IS A BULL] – #BTCUSD chart https://t.co/Nb8YaImC9t
— fil₿fil₿ (@filbfilb) March 8, 2019

Market action shows repeated patterns recently with inverted head and shoulders being a common one. Three higher lows since December’s dump to $3,200 are also significant. BTC dips have been around $3,400, $3,650 and $3,800, each preceding one lower than the following. Other bullish signals include a MACD cross trending above zero and a Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicating strong buying pressure.
If Bitcoin breaks below $3,400 it would signal lower lows and more bearish action possibly sending it below $3,000 as many others have predicted.
 $5,000 a Major Psychological Level
If BTC remains above this key 0.5 Fib level it could turn bullish quickly which may result in a run up to $5,000 by May according to ‘fil₿fil₿’s charts. Just as $4k has been, $5k will also be a major psychological resistance level.
Other traders have predicted a longer term recovery, possibly by the end of 2019. Using the key long term 61.8 Fib retracement level Bitcoin could bounce off this at $5,000 only to dump again below $1,500 according to this rather extreme scenario.
Chart from ‘jeremyluce’, Tradingview.
By October 2019 a breakout may occur sending BTC back through this down trend line and through $5,000 again by the end of the year. In 2020 the only way is up as another major bull run has initiated.
Price predictions are purely speculation based on previous market actions so should not be taken as gospel. The primary take from nearly all crypto analysts though is that there will be a trend reversal and it is likely to come at some time this year. Until then, happy hodling and accumulating.
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Bitcoin Bulls Break Resistance, Where Will BTC Go Next?

There has been no shortage of price predictions for Bitcoin over the past couple of months. As the bears tighten their grip on crypto markets and the winter deepens it all appears to be doom and gloom.
A Short Term Bounce For Bitcoin
A ray of light broke through the winter clouds yesterday when crypto markets surged by $10 billion. Bitcoin led the charge when it punched through resistance at $3,500 and then again at $3,600 just 15 minutes later.
For weeks BTC has been lulling around these levels unable to muster the strength to get past them. Only yesterday Bitcoin fell to its lowest level for 2019 when it briefly touched $3,390. The break below $3,400 must have triggered a raft of buy trades which sent BTC surging 9% to reach an intraday high of just below $3,700. Daily volume has surged from $5 billion to $7.8 billion, the highest it has been since the bounce off the bottom in mid-December. BTC is currently holding at around $3,650 at the time of writing.
Bitcoin price YTD
The volatility has returned again as Bitcoin hits a 15 day high the day after posting a seven week low. The big question now is where will it go next? Regardless of the big green candle for the day, the market is still trending down and making lower highs and lower lows. Previous robust resistance levels will test the strength of this bull run and determine whether it is to continue. At the moment $3,600 seems to be holding but the next major hurdle to overcome for BTC will be the wall of resistance at $4,000.
Analysts have been hinting at BTC being in oversold territory on the short term. Referring to the RSI indicator, technical analyst at Fundstrat Global Advisors, Rob Sluymer, echoed this sentiment when he said “BTC is again at historically oversold levels and is retesting important support that needs to hold to suggest a bottom is developing,”
Speaking to Bloomberg recently he added that the longer term outlook was not pretty; “A break below the fourth-quarter lows at $3,100 would imply a decline to $2,270, while a move above $4,200 is needed to signal Bitcoin is beginning to improve,” So it seems that the $4,000 level, or just above it, is still the key to further upwards momentum.
As it stands this mini recovery is just that and there have been no longer term signals to spell a major trend reversal. If the likes of Murad Mahmudov are correct, Bitcoin has a lot further to fall before it really starts to come back with a vengeance.
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Prominent Analyst Identifies Bitcoin Buy and Accumulate Zones

Bitcoin price predictions have been coming thick and fast over the past couple of months as analysts and investors attempt to foresee when the bottom will be in. This serves as the best buying opportunity but very few traders get it exactly right so getting close should be good enough.
No Return For Bulls Until Trendline is Broken
Bitcoin has failed twice so far this year to break key resistance levels, the first at $4,000 and then again at $3,600. As resistance zones keep falling, the down trend line from the top gets repeatedly tested and rejected indicating that more pain is imminent.
The new resistance level for Bitcoin for the week has been $3,500. It has hit this twice in the past seven days and instantly bounced off it, settling at $3,460 or thereabouts. The signals are still looking bearish and according to some technical indicators Bitcoin will be at or below $3,000 by April.
Prominent analyst Murad Mahmudov has identified clear buying and accumulating zones if this down trend line remains intact. Only when it has been broken will the Bitcoin bulls return; “Break that trendline before we can even think about having bullish discussions.”

The only chart you need.My rough view on what I believe is going to happen.Break that trendline before we can even think about having bullish discussions.Patience is Virtue. pic.twitter.com/mb5y3Xh3cK
— Murad Mahmudov (@MustStopMurad) February 6, 2019

This chart has been used to predict future movements based on past ones which serves as the basis for most technical analysis. A return to ‘Bitcoin Hell’ puts it between $1,800 and $3,000 between April and October this year. Only when the down trend gets broken, which Murad claims will be around September or October, will and real and measured reversal take place.
The buy zone is from June to August when Bitcoin is predicted to be around the $2,400 level. Accumulation can continue until it breaks above $3,000 again later in the year, this will be the depth of crypto winter which is likely to see all other altcoins in even worse shape.
According to Murad, institutions will not enter the market until there is a clear trend reversal a stronger buy signals such as the breaking of the MA50. Neither are expected for another nine months or so if this chart action plays out.
Using the same chart Murad has also foreseen a final capitulation with one wick extending down to $1,800 before Bitcoin returns to consolidate around $2,400 for the best part of the year. This is a figure that has been echoed using fractal pattern analysis. The longer this plays out the more accurate this prediction becomes as it takes guidance from the previous bear market of 2014 and 2015.
Predictions are just that, educated guesses, but the strong probability of further losses before new gains cannot be ignored.
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Bloomberg: Bitcoin Price “Fading”, $1,500 Possible

After MarketWatch got lambasted for publishing a questionable op-ed regarding a Bitcoin mining “death spiral,” the financial media continued their bearish cryptocurrency coverage on Wednesday. More specifically, Bloomberg News, which covers the crypto industry round the clock, recently had its in-house analysts tout a $1,500 per BTC prediction — far below what many traders deem “logical.”
Bloomberg Analyst Bearish, Expects Bitcoin To Fall To $1,500
While selling pressure has begun to abate, with 24-hour volumes in the cryptocurrency market falling to $14 billion, BTC continued its seemingly endless downtrend on Wednesday. The asset, which ranged primarily between $3,900 and $4,200 for a week, fell under the former price level in recent hours. During one point on Wednesday, the foremost cryptocurrency suddenly fell to $3,668, nearing its one-year low around $3,500, originally established in November.
Related Reading: November Has Been Bitcoin’s Worst Month for Seven Years
But since its initial sell-off, BTC has found itself amid a veneer of stability, finding a short-term foothold at in the mid-3700s, as bears presumably catch their breath. Yesterday’s move clearly exhibits the sentiment that volatility has likely returned to cryptocurrency markets, after the aforementioned multi-day lull.
And, according to Bloomberg, this bearish volatility is likely to continue into 2019, contradicting sentiment that both the cryptocurrency and equities markets would undergo a “Santa Claus rally.”
The financial market resource recently noted that the Directional Movement Index (DMI) indicates that after BTC fell under $6,600 in July, the asset has been “caught in a strong selling trend.” While a single indicator isn’t enough to signal a downtrend, Bloomberg also drew attention to the Average Directional Index (ADX), which is nearing 50 — a purportedly bearish sign.
In a note relayed through Bloomberg News, coupled with a subsequent interview, Mike McGlone, an analyst at the outlet, has made it clear that the aforementioned indicators point to lower lows for Bitcoin. McGlone, who hasn’t been afraid to tout his doomsday sentiment in the past, explained that BTC could fall another ~60% to $1,500, with altcoins likely falling close behind the cryptocurrency godfather.
Interestingly, while Bitcoin Cash’s hard fork has come and passed, the analyst drew attention to the contentious event, along with year-end tax selling, as purported catalysts for Bitcoin’s move to $1,500. Elaborating, while also touching on market cycles, McGlone noted:
“We’re at a classic psychological stage where the market is reversing the 2017 frenzy… The hard fork was a key trigger that signaled the technology is way too nascent. You had these dicey characters threatening to destroy each other and institutions said ’It might be best if we stay away from this for a while.’”
Crypto Industry Savants Still See Long-Term Potential
Although McGlone painted a dismal picture for crypto’s prospects, which were already beaten and bruised to hell and back, a number of industry insiders have maintained their abiding faith in this revolutionary innovation.
Roger Ver, the infamous chief executive of Bitcoin.com, recently told the aforementioned outlet that the future is brighter than ever for cryptocurrencies. Speaking to Bloomberg on the streets of Tokyo, the zealous decentralist and anti-government crusader drew attention to a number of fundamental factors, including the Japanese FSA’s recent approval of a self-regulating crypto consortium, growing awareness of this innovation, and ramping adoption.
Keeping all this in mind, coupled with the fact that hackers and scammers continue to target the industry, Ver mused that he is still “incredibly bullish on the entire crypto-coin ecosystem.”
Mike Kayamori, chief executive at Quoine, also expressed a similar thought process. Kayamori, who heads the Japanese blockchain-centric startup, noted that while “nobody knows” where Bitcoin will bottom, taking historical trends into account, a reversal may be inbound. The Japanese crypto proponent added that by the end of 2019, he expects for BTC to surpass the all-time high it established in the wee hours of 2017.
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Tom Lee: Bitcoin [BTC]’s dip below break-even point will see cryptocurrency hit only $15,000 by EoY

Tom Lee trimmed his Bitcoin end of the year [2018] prediction down to $15,000 from his earlier prediction of $25,000 in a statement recently. Bitcoin is among the cryptocurrencies that took a massive hit due to the recent sell-off that was set-off by the contentious arguments on Bitcoin Cash fork.
Thomas Lee aka Tom Lee is the co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors and is one among the people who are known for their wild predictions on Bitcoin [BTC].
Tom Lee explained that this new prediction came as a result of Bitcoin dipping below the ‘break-even” point. Break-even point is the level where the mining costs are equal to the trading price. According to Fundstrat’s data science team, the break-even point has come down to $7,000 as compared to the earlier break-even price, which was predicted to be $8,000. These tests were conducted on Bitmain’s S9 miners.
Based on the break-even price, Tom Lee re-predicted the price that Bitcoin might hit at the end of the year.
He stated:
“While bitcoin broke below that psychologically important $6,000, this has lead to a renewed wave of pessimism, but we believe the negative swing in sentiment is much worse than the fundamental implications.”
Lee said the recent double-digit crash of most cryptocurrencies like Ethereum [ETH], XRP and Bitcoin were triggered by “crypto-specific” events. The most obvious crypto-specific event was the “hash wars” which was due to the forking of Bitcoin Cash to Bitcoin ABC and Bitcoin SV.
Lee first predicted the price of Bitcoin would reach $25,000 by the EoY on July 5, 2018, which sent shockwaves and speculations in the crypto community.
Lee’s had said:
“Bitcoin has historically traded 2.5 times its mining cost, so it’s not out of the question that it could be $20,000 by the end of the year.”
The current price of Bitcoin is $5,530, and for it to reach $15,000 by the EoY, the price has to rally by an excess of 171.24%. The recent sell-off has caused the market cap of Bitcoin to collapse below the $100-billion line and is currently at $96.12 billion.
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BitMEX CEO Accurately Called $5,000 Bitcoin in August, Is $2,000 Next?

Bitcoin has set a new low for 2018, and is now inching closer and closer to BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes’ prediction that Bitcoin will reach $5,000.
BitMEX CEO Called for Bitcoin to Test $5K Support, Nails Prediction
Outspoken CEO and co-founder of popular margin-trading platform BitMEX has made a number of predictions about Bitcoin’s price since the leading cryptocurrency by market cap reached its all-time high of $20,000 last December.
One of his most recent predictions, calling for Bitcoin to hit $5,000, is about to become a reality.
While many cryptocurrency analysts had been calling for a bottom, Bitcoin finally fell through its seemingly unbreakable and repeatedly tested support at $6,000, quickly plummeting to $5,500 yesterday, and hitting a low of $5,250 earlier this morning – a mere $250 away from Hayes’ prediction.
Hayes started the year with a far more positive outlook on Bitcoin, suggesting that the volatile asset could reach $50,000 by the end of 2018.
Considering Bitcoin’s parabolic rise from $5,000 to $20,000 in around a month’s time, exuberant predictions were the norm and at the time seemed very possible. However, as the bear market took its toll on investors scorn by continuously falling prices, Hayes adjusted his predictions. Others, such as Tim Draper or cybersecurity firm founder John McAfee are calling for as much as $250,000 and even $1 million per Bitcoin.
McAfee was so confident in the prediction he offered to “eat” his genitalia if the lofty prediction didn’t come true.
Back in August, the BitMEX CEO, while speaking on CNBC’s Fast Money, told host Melissa Lee that cryptocurrency investors haven’t “seen the worst” yet and that he would “like to see” Bitcoin “test 5,000 to really see if we put a bottom in.”
Hayes made the comments after Bitcoin briefly touched below $6,000 in late June, and began to rally before being stopped at roughly $8,250. Hayes had suggested at the time that if the rally had passed $10,000, his prediction of $50,000 was still feasible, but if the rally couldn’t break the psychological resistance at $10,000, then a test of $5,000 would be in the cards. He was right.
Related Reading: Bitcoin Break to $5,600 is Good For Crypto, Says Major Investor
Is Arthur Hayes’ New Prediction the Next Stop for Bitcoin?
Hayes isn’t done with his goal of accurately predicting the bottom in Bitcoin, and is now calling $2,000 to $3,000 his “new sweet spot.” He also thinks that the ongoing bear market, which is already nearing a year in length, could last another year to 18-months.
Hayes has based his assessments on Bitcoin’s price and its relation to the 200-day moving average. Having “lived through the 2014-2015 bear market,” Hayes has also been waiting for a “nasty #@$ candle that breaks the soul of the bulls” – a candle which most bulls are hoping occurred yesterday, and isn’t looming on the horizon.
Market bottoms are usually identified by a V-shaped capitulation event, which many have claimed has yet to happen in what appeared to be Bitcoin’s bottom at the time.
If yesterday’s drop wasn’t the capitulation event, then Bitcoin may be following Hayes’ new prediction of $2,000 to $3,000. If it was, $50,000 could be next after the bulls regain control.
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Malta PM Makes Unavoidable Bitcoin Prediction

The people of Malta and its government have already accepted the crypto world and has even tried to call itself the ‘blockchain island’ of the world.
In an address to the United Nation’s General Assembly, the Prime Minister of Malta, Joseph Muscat has said that he sees blockchain technologies as the tool which can allow Bitcoin and other digital currencies to inevitably gain a widespread appeal and essentially become the future of currency.
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Permabull Tom Lee: Bitcoin Price at $20,000 Still Possible By The End Of 2018

When it comes to Bitcoin bulls, there isn’t anyone who is as optimistic as Fundstrat’s Tom Lee. And with a recent appearance on CNBC, Lee has only cemented this theme, drawing attention to indicators that could indicate that Bitcoin bears are losing steam.
Fundstrat Analyst Remains Bullish, Even After Eight Months Of Bearish Price Action
Where’s Bitcoin headed next? That’s the question that has been weighing on the minds of crypto investors worldwide. Tom Lee, the head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, recently appeared on CNBC’s “Fast Money” segment to discuss his outlook on this market.
Lee, dubbed “Wall Street’s biggest Bitcoin bull” by some, debuted his time on the show by drawing attention to a throng of positive indicators. Alluding back to the countless number of appearances he made on Fast Money, the permabull noted that the break-even cost of mining, along with favorable “network efforts” still heavily drive Bitcoin’s value. Anyhow, he then unexpectedly brought up a macro market indicator, and although it has no direct correlation to crypto, Lee sees it as Bitcoin’s next “leading indicator.”

The macro indicator in question compares the performance of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which measures the value of equity markets in global markets, and the US-based S&P 500. Lee went on to put the aforementioned indicator and Bitcoin’s logarithmic chart side-by-side, in a bid to show CNBC viewers that connections can be drawn between these two charts. As Bitcoin rocketed in value last year, so did the MSCI Index, albeit not exponentially. This seemingly isn’t a one-ended relationship, with Bitcoin undergoing a trend reversal as the macro indicator hit its peak in early-2018.
Although this could be an untimely coincidence, the Fundstrat research guru revealed why this indicator should be of interest to crypto investors. Lee stated:
“So why do we think they’re connected? Well, there is two factors. The first is hedge funds — see hedge funds typically rent emerging market stocks. So they do risk-on, risk-off. So when they’re risk-off, Bitcoin also suffers because they are risk off. The second reason has to do with wealth effect. Wealth effect means that if you are living in an emerging market, and you see your stock market fall hugely, that you will have a lot less money to buy Bitcoin.”
In other words, the Fundstrat executive believes that as emerging markets underperform, so will Bitcoin. Later speaking on market conditions, Lee added that the trading ecosystem “has shifted,” which has drawn ambitious macro hedge fund managers to BitMEX, where margin trading is a dime a dozen.
Additionally, he noted that funds are beginning to hire crypto-friendly, talented individuals straight out of college, which may play a role in a hedge fund’s decision to look into crypto. So for now, the permabull noted that hedge funds will continue to dominate the trading landscape until the market gets other fiat on-ramps.
Tom Lee: The Misery Index May Be At 36, But Bitcoin Is Still Ready To Roar
Concluding his time on the show, Lee brought up Fundstrat’s Bitcoin Misery Index, which aims to calculate the overall sentiment of crypto traders on a scale from zero to 100. As it stands, the misery index sits in a “very miserable zone”, at 36/100. He attributed this low figure to the SEC’s near-rejection of nine Bitcoin-backed ETF proposals, along with these Chinese government’s moves to curb the development and propagation of crypto.
However, as incessantly noted by the analyst, the misery index can often be seen as a contrarian indicator, where a low figure reported by the index may often be a precursor to a short to mid-term Bitcoin rally. CNBC host Melissa Lee closed off this episode’s crypto segment asking Tom Lee about his $20,000 price prediction. Remaining ever so bullish, he stated:
“It only takes ten days for Bitcoin to see all its returns in a year. So I still believe that ($20,000 by the end of 2018) is possible.”
 
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Crypto Week In Review: Sentiment Starts To Shift As Bitcoin Moves Up 15%

Sentiment regarding the cryptocurrency market took a large shift this past week, as Bitcoin rallied 15% due to a series of positive technical and fundamental indicators.

IBM To Use Stellar-Based Stablecoin For Faster Financial Payments

IBM, one of the largest technology firms in the world, has just announced that it will be exploring the utilization of a Stellar-based token for cross-border payments.  The token in question was created by asset management firm Stronghold and was fittingly named Stronghold USD, which is a stablecoin that is pegged to the value of the U.S. dollar.

Unlike other stablecoin projects like Tether, prospective Stronghold USD users will make a deposit to the Nevada-based Prime Trust bank, with Stronghold issuing tokens on a 1:1 ratio. Additionally, this project was created with institutions in mind, rather than consumers, making the aforementioned stablecoin a much better choice for IBM in comparison with something like Tether or TrueUSD.

Tammy Camp, the founder and CEO of Stronghold, explained the use cases of the token more in-depth, stating:

“The token allows folks to do payments, foreign exchange between companies in a very seamless and frictionless and more secure way. It enables people to be able to trade that token with other assets and other tokens as well.”

Despite The Bear Market, Greyscale Investments Sees An Influx of Institutional Capital

Grayscale Investments, a digital asset focused investment firm, recently revealed that it had received an influx of institutional investment and interest, despite market woes.

Grayscale, which is headed by cryptocurrency expert and long-time investor Barry Silbert, released a report that cited that it had received just around $250 million from investors, looking to invest into Greyscale’s array of investment products. Although this is an impressive figure by itself, Silbert noted that 56% of the aforementioned figure was generated from institutional investors, potentially noting that these firms see a good entry point at current prices.

Bithumb To Expand Into New Asian Markets

Bithumb, a popular Korean exchange, has announced that it has plans to expand into the Japanese and Thai markets within the upcoming months. The exchange is currently working on obtaining the required regulatory approval from the local governments, namely the Japanese Financial Services Agency and the Thai Securities and Exchange Commission.

The Thai Bithumb branch is the furthest in development, with its parent company creating a webpage for the platform, along with allocating 3 million Thai Baht (~$90,000 U.S.) to the newly-opened subsidiary.

It is expected for Bithumb Thai to launch by the end of October, while Bithumb Japan is expected to open its doors early next year, despite harsh regulation imposed by regulators. The exchange will not be any ordinary platform, with ZDNet Korea noting that Bithumb “plans to set up an exchange that supports the largest number of coins (cryptocurrencies) in Japan.”

Tom Lee And Barry Silbert Call For Bitcoin To Continue Upwards

CNBC’s “Fast Money” show hosted industry leaders Tom Lee and Barry Silbert this week, with the two stating that they hold positive sentiment regarding Bitcoin’s price.

Barry Silbert, who is a long-time cryptocurrency investor and the aforementioned founder of Grayscale Investments, expects an influx of institutional “dry powder,” or highly liquid assets, in the near future. Silbert also stated that the bears have “run out of energy,” and have no more Bitcoin to sell, therefore resulting in less selling pressure placed upon prices.

The Bitcoin proponent later pointed out that the criticisms placed upon the industry by regulatory bodies don’t hold any value, and come unwarranted. He said:

“So I started buying Bitcoin in 2012 when the price was ten dollars and I’ve gone through now two 80 percent corrections, and this was a 65 percent correction. It’s the same old criticisms… Its just (that) they’re uninformed because everybody on this desk, anyone who spends the time to look into what is this asset class, why is it important, why does it have so much potential comes out of it being a believer.”

Tom Lee, the head of research at market analysis firm Fundstrat, also pointed out that fundamentals and technical indicators are starting to turn bullish once again, expecting for the world’s foremost cryptocurrency to head upwards from here.

Crypto Experts Hold Bullish Price Predictions

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder and CEO of the BitMEX exchange, tripled-down on his $50,000 price prediction, while also making an appearance on the CNBC show that seems to cover cryptocurrencies each and every day. Despite stating that he believes the market hasn’t “seen the worst” yet, expecting for Bitcoin to bottom at $5,000, he is betting that the cryptocurrency market will return to a bullish state as we move into the second half of the year.

Hayes noted:

“I don’t actually think we’ve seen the worst. I would like to see us test $5,000 to really see if we put a bottom in. But come back in Q3, Q4, I think is when the party is going to start again.”

Bitcoin Holds Weekly Gains, As Altcoins Slightly Pullback 

On Tuesday, Bitcoin saw an astonishing run-up, easily surpassing the heavily contested resistance levels at $6,800 and $7,000. Altcoins quickly followed, with a majority of the cryptocurrency market posting ~8-9% gains on that day alone. Many attributed this run-up to a series of positive news that was released prior to the run-up, namely discussion regarding institutional involvement, with this variety of investment being held as the primary catalyst for the expected bull-run of 2018.

Additionally, as Tom Lee stated on CNBC, the technical indicators were starting to become more favorable as discerned by a variety of analysts.

Since then, many altcoins experienced a slight pullback, with Bitcoin’s market dominance rising from 43% to 45%. Bitcoin has continued to hold the gains it made earlier this week, with the cryptocurrency sitting at around $7,450.

It has become apparent that the sentiment surrounding the cryptocurrency market is starting to change, with an onslaught of positive news coming from all corners of the industry. Arthur Hayes put it best when he said:

“But come back in Q3, Q4, I think that is when the party is going to start again.”

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