Bitcoin Rise May Appeal to Investors amidst Intensifying Geopolitical Risks

The bitcoin price has soared this week on the prospects of Fed rate cut, the Facebook coin, and uncertainty due to the US-China trade war.
The world’s leading cryptocurrency rallied on Saturday, with its price flying past the $10,000 level for the first time since March 8 last year. Investors allegedly bid up bitcoin in expectations of more US dollar flowing into the markets. On Wednesday, Jerome Powell, the chairman of Federal Reserve, indicated that the US central bank would cut interest rates next month, prompting investors to take their money out of the US Treasuries.
From the day of announcement until 1000 UTC today, bitcoin has surged by more than 20 percent to $10,949.

probably one of the most interesting charts out there: Bitcoin vs. UST10Y inverted pic.twitter.com/qEuFqD6JJ9
— Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) June 21, 2019

The US-Iran Issue
Tensions in the Gulf of Oman touched peak after Iran said it shot down an “intruding” US drone after it entered into the country’s skies. The territory was already under the lens after the US officials blamed Iran for attacking oil tankers last week, with President Donald Trump himself accusing Iran on national TV.
“It was them that did it,” Trump told Fox News.

The benchmark S&P 500 dropped for the first time in an otherwise bullish weak on the news. The Dow Jones, too, closed in red after briefly surpassing its October 3 peak.
David Donabedian, the chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth Management, told Bloomberg that the US market had turned its impressive performance this week to an outright flat action owing to the “news coming out of Iran.”
“It’s a testament to how important monetary policy is and how much the market is hanging its hat on the Fed here in the second half of the year.”
Haven Assets in Demand
Anxieties concerning a potential US-Iran military lockdown — coupled with Fed’s dovish stance on the US economy — proved bullish for the leading haven asset gold. The precious metal’s spot price surged above $1,400 for the first time in six years. It could see more upsides, according to Market.com’s chief market analyst, Neil Wilson. Excerpts from his statements to Business Insider:
“The opportunity cost of holding gold is significantly lower as real yields fall, while the rather dubious and risky outlook for the global economy, US-China trade and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East mean there is plenty of reason to be seeking shelter in gold.”
Mainstream investors could also explore alternative hedging opportunities in Bitcoin, whose current market capitalization is 3,746 percent lower than that of gold but, on a year-to-date scale alone, has returned 20 times more gains than the precious metal.
Venture capitalist Barry Silbert believes bitcoin’s higher returns is a sign of new capital inflow. He told CNBC:
“Whatever money is in gold is not going to stay in gold. That gets handed down to millennials — I’m highly confident a lot of that will go into bitcoin.”
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Donald Trump and Fed Chairman Distrust is Bullish for Bitcoin: Billionaire Investor

Bitcoin is going to benefit from the growing distrust between the US President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, believes Mr. Michael Novogratz of Galaxy Digital, LLC.
The billionaire founder said on Wednesday that he is becoming “more bullish” on bitcoin after President Trump reportedly threatened to demote Mr. Powell if he decides against lowering interest rates. The Federal Reserve is set to announce its take on the said matter today at 1400 Eastern Time upon concluding a two-day meeting.

Makes me more bullish $BTC https://t.co/oePdtMT1GD
— Michael Novogratz (@novogratz) June 18, 2019

Bitcoin against Rate Cuts
Economists believe the Fed is not likely to cut interest rate in June despite May’s weak job data and softer consumer price inflation. But, the central bank’s likelihood of decreasing the rates after July 30-31 meeting is higher.
Meanwhile, with an 80 percent approval of a rate cut by traders, the sentiment in the US stock market has turned bullish for the near-term. The June session so far has witnessed the S&P 500 Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite posting more than 6 percent profits each through Tuesday’s close.
On the other hand, bitcoin’s month-to-date gains are lower than that of the US benchmark markets — at 3.69 percent by Tuesday’s close. The cryptocurrency’s uptrend went silent on Tuesday after the announcement of Facebook’s token Libra. Nevertheless, bitcoin’s broader bias remains bullish owing to market catalysts like the Hong Kong protests, the US-China trade war, and news related to its potential adoption by mainstream institutions (Fidelity, TD Ameritrade, etc.).
Bitcoin Price has Surged More than 150% in 2019 | Image Credits: TradingView.com
Hand in Hand
The two diverse markets now meet at the crossroad constructed by the Federal Reserve. Investors who have both the US stocks and bitcoin in their portfolios are looking at rate cuts as a hedge against a potential economic slowdown. According to Barclays, the US benchmark markets could witness a surge of as much as 21 percent following the next rate cut. The same theory stands true for bitcoin, which could see an increase in buying sentiment if US dollar borrowing becomes cheaper.
But the interim sentiment holds if only Mr. Powell decides to cut interest rates. An opposite scenario, meanwhile, could hit the bitcoin market in the wrong way — at least according to Robert Leshner, the founder of Compound Finances.
“We’re finally starting to enter an environment of rising interest rates which crypto has never seen before and it’s going to be potentially challenging to the price of a lot of crypto assets just like it will be for a lot of assets in general, including equities.”
Long-Term Sentiment
The following rate cut scenario does not guarantee a soft landing for the US economy, according to Ryan Detrick of LPL Financial.
The senior market strategist noted that the Fed is going to cut interests at a time when a potential recession is looming around. He said the previous two times the Fed slashed the rates were in 2001 and 2017, which eventually cut the stocks cut by half.
“But the reality is if you go back further in time, you can also see explosive rallies after that first cut,” Mr. Detrick said.
Meanwhile, data collected by Barclays shows the S&P 500 records a loss of approx 17 percent when the Fed cuts rates ahead of an impending recession.
Bitcoin’s impressive performance in May against the backdrop of the US-China trade war has proved that investors would likely consider it a hedge under challenging times. US-based Grayscale Investments found plenty of evidence that showed the bitcoin price rising against a string of regional economic tensions, ranging from China’s capital control to the Greece debt crisis. The firm wrote in its report:
“While it is still very early in Bitcoin’s life cycle as an investable asset, we have identified evidence supporting the notion that it can serve as a hedge in a global liquidity crisis, particularly those that result in subsequent currency devaluations.”
That somewhat raises hopes of bitcoin behaving as a perfect hedge for handling a global economic crisis.
No wonder Mr. Novogratz is more bullish on the cryptocurrency.
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Bitcoin Price Jumps Above $8,700 following Binance US Closure

Bitcoin is becoming a hedging instrument even against the rest of the cryptocurrency market.
The largest cryptocurrency profited as much as 6 percent on Friday to close above $8,700. At the same time, other leading cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum, Litecoin, and EOS, trended in negative territory. The massive contrast between the bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrency market indicated a capital flight. Traders suggestively exchanged a bulk of altcoins for bitcoin as a safety measure against the latest Binance announcement.
The Malta-based cryptocurrency exchange, which accounted for the highest global cryptocurrency volume, announced on Friday that it is barring US customers from accessing its services. The announcement indicated that Binance would lose about 15 percent of its net monthly traffic, amounting to over 40 million customers. The firm’s sudden shutting down reportedly prompted the US customers to withdraw a large number of altcoins, which included Binance’s very own native token BNB coin.
Binance Coin (BNB) Dropped Close to 18% on Friday | Image Credits: TradingView.com
The BNB price dropped by as much as 17 percent against the BTC on Friday.
Bitcoin against Altcoin Liquidity Crisis
Alex Krüger, a prominent market analyst, said today that Binance’s issues with its US customers are bullish for bitcoin. He cited Tether, the company behind the controversial stablecoin USDT, to explain the correlation of bitcoin with the rest of the altcoin market. In April 2019, the New York Attorney General’s office on April 25 announced that it had obtained a court order against Tether and its associate firm BitFinex for allegedly hiding $850 million loss from USDT investors.
“Upcoming Binance’s issues with US residents = Bullish for BTC,” wrote Krüger. “This was even clearer than with April’s Tether “FUD.” Speculators are supposed to act on meaningful news, not just theorize about it.”

Upcomimg Binance's issues with US residents = Bullish for $BTC. This was even clearer than with April's Tether "FUD". Speculators are supposed to act on meaningful news, not just theorize about it. https://t.co/7bAfEOiXTW
— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) June 14, 2019

Also, in October 2018, USDT dropped its dollar-peg to fall to its 18-month low of $0.92. The slide in the stablecoin pushed bitcoin $600 higher on BitFinex.
What’s Now for Bitcoin
The bitcoin market’s intraday arrangements point to a small downside correction, according to its overbought Relative Strength Indicator on Coinbase daily chart. Nevertheless, market analyst Josh Rager suggest that the cryptocurrency has fuel to retest $8,750, given it manages to float above $8,000.
“Break and close above $8,948 is bullish,” he added.

$BTC…
Nice break up out of that rising wedge, big players painted it perfect on the chart to trap many into shorting followed by liquidations
Would like to see a pullback to $8500s before another retest to break above $8750
Break & close above $8948 is bullish pic.twitter.com/bAlkGNFxz2
— Josh Rager (@Josh_Rager) June 15, 2019

Pseudonymous analyst BitBit believes bitcoin is due for a much larger upside move than what is suggested by Rager. He measured the cryptocurrency based on monthly performance, stating that it could continue its bull run to touch the five-figure status.
“I’m saying above 10k by the end of the month, might even touch 11k,” said BitBit.
The bitcoin price was trading at $8,645 at the time of this writing.
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Despite Warnings of Analyst For Fall to $6,100, Bitcoin Surges Above $8k

The bitcoin price has dropped by as much as 18 percent from its 2019 high of $9,090. And it could lose more value in the coming 20 days, according to an analysis provided by a cryptocurrency analyst.
Mr. Teddy Cleps of Crypto Freak Network said on Monday that the bitcoin price historically contacted its 21-weekly exponential moving average (EMA) in every 70-to-90 days.
On the 70th day since the last contact, bitcoin was trending almost a thousand dollar above the EMA in concern, which means the cryptocurrency has approximately 20 more days to plunge and retest it. Meanwhile, the EMA (represented via a green curve) has adjusted somewhere near $6,100, as shown in the chart below.
Bitcoin Price Eyes an Extended Downside Run Towards its 21-Weekly EMA | Image Credits: Teddy Cleps
“Any trend regardless of the bias has to retrace and confirm the direction by bouncing off a key moving average ( 21ema here) – very healthy for the trend,” said Cleps. “It has been 70 days since the last contact – historically it ranges between 70 and 90.”
The statement came hours ahead of the latest bitcoin price push above $8,000. At 1200 UTC today, the BTC/USD rate settled a session high towards $8,090, only to correct to the downside later. At the press time, bitcoin was trading at $7944, awaiting a push to sight bull targets above $8,300.
Parallel Theories
In May, bitcoin jumped by about 60 percent, marking its best monthly performance since December 2017. Ahead of the month’s close, the cryptocurrency surged to $9,090 but fell more than 11-percent in a matter of minutes. The super volatile move quickly transformed into an intense selling action, that brought the bitcoin price as low as $7,427 on Coinbase on June 4.
Tuur Demeester, the founding partner of Adamant Capital, noted that the cryptocurrency had not found concrete support to start a new rally. The analyst wrote in his latest blog that bitcoin is initially looking to retrace by as much as 44 percent from its session top of $9,000. He backed his prediction by a Relative Unrealized Profits & Losses indicator, which compared bitcoin investors’ total profit and losses with the asset’s price action, as shown in the chart below.
Comparing Bitcoin Price with Investor Sentiment | Image Credits: Tuur Demeester
“Should $9,000 prove the top (which is not a given) and if then we’d see a 2012-style correction repeated, we would expect after an initial crash to see bitcoin trade in a range between $6,800 and $7,680 (27–44% retrace of the rally),” wrote Demeester.
Would Bitcoin Upside Continue?
While the technicals have their ways to explain a bitcoin plunge, the fundamentally-driven bitcoin bulls believe that the cryptocurrency would touch a six-figure valuation this year.
Brian Kelly, the chief executive of digital currency investment firm BKCM LLC, told CNBC that bitcoin is at the beginning of a broader price rally. He said that miners are preferring to hoard more bitcoins instead of passing it down to the market for circulation.
The reason why the global mining community has become so bullish is an event that would reduce the supply of bitcoins by half next year. According to Kelly, a reduction in stock against a rising demand is simple economics to prove that the asset rate would grow higher.

After a more than 50% rally in the last month, Bitcoin is stuck at $8,000. Here's what @BKBrianKelly says could drive it higher. pic.twitter.com/Smxy7v2Pgw
— CNBC's Fast Money (@CNBCFastMoney) May 21, 2019

“Every time the supply of bitcoin cut in half, you have a rally that goes into it, and a rally that goes out of it. We’re just at the beginning of that stage,” said Kelly.
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Bitcoin is Having a False Price Rally, Says Gold Bull Peter Schiff

A sharp rebound that sent the bitcoin price 179 percent higher this year could soon fizzle, according to Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Asset management.
The veteran stockbroker said bitcoin has not accurately recovered from 2018’s bearish sentiment, wherein its rate dropped from $20,000 to $3,200 in just 11 months. Adding that every bear market has fake rallies that attempt to “sucker in” the bulls, Schiff noted that the ongoing bitcoin price boom is one of the same things. Excerpts:
“A lot of people got suckered into this pump-and-dump scheme because they heard all the stories about young kids taking their Bar Mitzvah money into bitcoin and bought a Lambo […] Pretty soon, it is going to be stories about people who lost their life savings because they put real money instead of play money into bitcoin.”
Schiff asserted that the bitcoin market has an abundance of fake buying sentiment because the cryptocurrency serves neither the purpose of money nor a store of value. He refuted bulls who believed bitcoin would play the role of a haven asset in times of a monetary crisis, adding that central banks and individual investors would always prefer gold because of its historical significance as money for thousands of years.
“Central banks are buying gold; they are not buying bitcoin because gold is money,” said Schiff.

It's almost like @PeterSchiff has no idea how Bitcoin works. pic.twitter.com/pdam7CxCr4
— 𝒮 𝒜 𝒟 (@StopAndDecrypt) June 2, 2019

Bitcoin Worth Nothing
The statement appeared amidst a Gold vs. Bitcoin debate with Barry Silbert, the founder, and CEO of Greyscale Investment. The prominent investor, who recently supervised a #dropthegold campaign in favor of his bitcoin investment product, argued that the cryptocurrency possesses almost all the characteristics of gold, adding that it is scarce, finite, and divisible. That becomes the basis of why there are now thousands of companies in the bitcoin space metamorphosizing a nascent market into the one that is as mature as gold.
“The thousands of companies that have been launched in the last five years has created tens of thousands of jobs,” said Silbert. “There is a real innovation happening — and I assure you that it is going to propel the bitcoin price higher […] The gold will only perform well when the sh*t hits the fan.”

Schiff believed otherwise. The gold bull argued that bitcoin has no value compared to precious metals, stating that people are buying bitcoin expecting while huge returns on investments. But in the case of gold, people buy fearing the devaluation of national currencies.
“We are in the biggest bubbles that the central banks have ever blown,” he said. “And when it gets popped, the 2008 economic crisis will appear like a Sunday school picnic. Then, people will figure out why gold is important.”
The bitcoin price at the time of this writing was $8,733.
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Bitcoin Trading Volume Skyrockets in Latin America, Value Hits ATH in Argentina

Weekly peer-to-peer trading volume in the Latin American bitcoin market has been rising steeply, according to data provided by LocalBitcoins.com.
The over-the-counter bitcoin trading portal found that Argentina, Chile, Mexico, Columbia, Peru, and Venezuela are posting more offline trading activity than that reported on the global average scale. Measured against their local fiat currencies, the volumes appeared higher even during the 2018’s cryptocurrency crisis, wherein bitcoin lost more than 70 percent of spot market valuation.

Interesting that the crypto market is following a totally different pattern in LatAm (source data from LocalBitcoins) – there was no winter. pic.twitter.com/4hPiAFpY18
— Brian Armstrong (@brian_armstrong) May 29, 2019

Inflation
Even the countries which noted a minor drop in trading volumes last year picked up momentum in 2019. That might have to do with bitcoin’s unexceptional rebound during the second quarter of this year.
The cryptocurrency surged by more than 120 percent since April 1 to settle a fresh yearly high just shy of $8,950. The move brought bitcoin’s net bottom-recovery to 135 percent, according to a real-time data provided by Messari.io.
The trading volume, per se, indicated both the buying and selling orders placed via LocalBitcoins.com. Nevertheless, the bitcoin-to-fiat rate statistics of the six Latin American countries — as mentioned above — showed that the cryptocurrency is growing stronger against the national currencies.
Argentina Pesos, for instance, touched its all-time low against bitcoin at 388,670 pesos on May 26, 2019. In another case, the Mexican Pesos dropped to its 10-month low against bitcoin on May 28, 2019. The situation appeared similar across other Latin American fiat markets, indicating that more people have been choosing bitcoin over their local fiat throughout the year.

Bitcoin hits all-time high in Argentine pesos https://t.co/k9BAow4wdP via @financialtimes
— Barry Silbert (@barrysilbert) May 27, 2019

Emergency Exit
A mistrust in most South American economies, especially after decades of inflation, is becoming the main reason why people are moving to cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, at least according to the popular opinion.
Agustina Fainguersch, a managing partner at Wolox, an Argentina-based software firm, called bitcoin a practical solution amidst growing economic concerns towards legacy financial systems.
“In Argentina, we exchange pesos into dollars and then back again within a week,” she told TechCrunch, adding that their national currency had lost 50 percent of its value against the dollar in 2018. “Many Argentines are often just trying to make sure they have enough money to cover basic expenses.”
The entrepreneur remained unfazed by the bitcoin market’s underlying volatility, arguing that it was still lower than Argentinian Pesos.
“Many Argentines are often just trying to make sure they have enough money to cover basic expenses,” she explained. “So long as bitcoin is less volatile than the peso, it’s attractive. Argentine’s have a long history of navigating volatility.”

The story is similar in a socio-economic catastrophe Venezuela, where the local currency Bolivar fell to a point where even a McDonald burger started costing around $350. BBC reported in March 2019 that more Venezuelans had started dumping bolivars for cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, with weekly trading levels topping $8.76 million in February.
“Many Venezuelans are using Bitcoin to convert their bolivars, which are being permanently devalued by hyperinflation, to keep something of value,” confirmed economist Asdrubal Oliveros of Econanalitica, a Caracas-based consultancy.
Bitcoin was trading at $8,720 at the time of this writing.
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Uber Angel Investor Predicts Bitcoin Price will Fall to $500

The bitcoin price will likely fall anywhere between $0 and $500 in the future, according to Jason Calacanis.
The prominent venture capitalist said on Wednesday that the world’s largest cryptocurrency operates in a manipulated market. He further discussed the possibility of [a] new, emerging technology replacing bitcoin that would eventually hurt its long-term fundamentals as an asset.
“It’s possible [bitcoin] is built to last, but not probable, so keep your position to an amount you’re willing to [lose],” suggested Calacanis. “For most, that’s 1-5% of net worth.”

My position remains the same. #Bitcoin will likely be replaced by a new technology & it’s manipulated
It’s possible it’s built to last, but not probable, so keep your position to an amount you’re willing to loose
For most, that’s 1-5% of net worth
It will likely go to 0-$500. https://t.co/8Bs4PGmiN5
— (@Jason) May 27, 2019

The statement appeared in the wake of growing buying sentiment noted lately in the bitcoin spot market. The asset, which had slipped more than 70 percent last year after establishing a historic high at circa $20,000, made one of the most significant comebacks ever seen in both nascent and traditional markets.
Bitcoin’s rate in the US dollar markets posted a maximum rebound of 186 percent in just 163 days — as of May 27, 01:00 UTC. In comparison, Nasdaq and S&P 500, which also published their worst performance in a decade in 2018, rebounded by a dwarfed 23 and 25.94 percent from their lows, respectively.
Calacanis argued much of the bitcoin bullish bias that sent prices skyrocketing, predicting that early holders would exit their positions at suitable peak formations while leaving the new bagholders behind.
“It’s possible that the early holders will clear their positions to a new group of global refugee seekers, making it built to last,” said Calacanis. “I put that at [more than] 30 percent right now.
“Energy consumption, hacking, regulation & a better version are likely negative scenarios — I bundle those at 70 percent.”
Bitcoin Community Reacts
The bearish outlook presented by Calacanis met criticism from the bitcoin community, with many arguing that the prediction relied on a fictional phenomenon. John Carvalho, the chief operating officer of BitRefill, a Stockholm-based crypto startup, found Calacanis’ argument unconvincing. He asked:
“Why do you think replacement is likely? What evidence or relevance does manipulation have on BTC persistence? Have you done the math on what size the market would be if 1-5% of all investment-ready wealth [were] stored in Bitcoin?”
Meanwhile, prominent cryptocurrency analyst Parabolic Trav said bitcoin’s scarcity and resilience as an asset is adequately strong to sustain its dominance in the crypto market.
“Unless a “new technology” will achieve perfect scarcity a la free market, any goofy features don’t matter and will do nothing for dethroning BTC,” Parabolic Trav wrote in response to Calacanis’ prediction.

Unless a “new technology” will achieve perfect scarcity a la fee market, any goofy features don’t matter and will do nothing for dethroning BTC.
BTC is going to be perfect scarcity and perfect resilience. Everything else is irrelevant. LLB.
— ParabolicTrav (@parabolictrav) May 27, 2019

Other feedbacks included requests to Calacanis to look more deeply into the bitcoin technology for its non-confiscatable and censorship-resistant features.
Fundamentals Support Bitcoin
While one cannot predict where the bitcoin price would eventually land, the majority of fundamental factors appears on the bullish side. The cryptocurrency witnessed a renewed wave of buying sentiment, particularly after major US financial firms like Fidelity Investments and TD Ameritrade announced that they would launch bitcoin trading services.
On the other hand, bitcoin’s supply will be going to get reduced by half in May 2020, which has further improvised the asset’s bullish bias in the long-term.
Bitcoin was trading at $8,733.91 at the time of this writing.
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Fund Manager Discusses Three Factors that Will Trigger Next Bitcoin Rally

The bitcoin price has slipped by almost 5.5 percent from its yearly high at $8,388 and could be in for a massive downside correction. But that has not deterred a prominent fund manager from projecting a bullish case for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
Brian Kelly, the founder of BKCM, LLC, a New York-based digital currency investment firm, said in an interview that bitcoin is ready for another breakout action owing to three three core fundamentals: institutional adoption, retail anticipation, and supply cut. He explained that people were bullish because big financial firms are entering the bitcoin market, retail-level trading applications are looking to be rolled out, and the Bitcoin protocol was about a year away from cutting bitcoin supply in half.

After a more than 50% rally in the last month, Bitcoin is stuck at $8,000. Here's what @BKBrianKelly says could drive it higher. pic.twitter.com/Smxy7v2Pgw
— CNBC's Fast Money (@CNBCFastMoney) May 21, 2019

Factor 1: Fidelity and Wall Street
Bitcoin’s jump above the psychological level of $6,000 took place on May 9, almost over a week after Fidelity Investments announced that it would offer a bitcoin trading service to its institutional clients. The Boston-based asset management firm, which had $2.6 trillion worth of assets under management as of March 2018, expects to pump bitcoin’s demand among the so-called Wall Street investors.
Incidentally, a similar anecdote helped bitcoin sustain its price above $6,000. Garry Tan, a prominent seed investor, said in October 2018 that big investors assumed $6,000-level as an opportunity to purchase bitcoin cheaper. He cited David Swensen and Yale’s Warren Buffet, who had invested an undisclosed sum into two crypto-funds.

Galaxy Digital’s billionaire CEO, Mike Novogratz, called $6,000 the bitcoin-bottom in September 2018, again citing institutions’ interest in purchasing the cryptocurrency around the level.
“I think institutions are moving towards investing. It’s shocking how much has happened,” said Mr. Novogratz.
But bitcoin broke below $6,000 in November 2018 and stayed there until May 9. Mr. Kelly believed that the move above the level is prompting people to revisit the 2018’s institutions-pumping-bitcoin narratives.
“You are starting to get that long-waited-for institutional adoption,” said Mr. Kelly. “Fidelity is rolling out institutional custody – they are getting customers from the mainstream and people are buying the institutional [narrative].”
Factor 2: TD Ameritrade and Retail Investors
TD Ameritrade, one of the significant US-based electronic trading platforms, invested an undisclosed sum in ErisX, an upcoming cryptocurrency spot and futures contracts exchange. The announcement followed a TD’s anticipation of launching a bitcoin trading service for retail-based investors, which, as Mr. Kelly noted, was also one of the significant factors behind the ongoing bitcoin price boom. He said:
“We softened TD Ameritrade and they invested. They will now start offering Bitcoin trading to their retail customers over the coming months – perhaps, three to four months.”
Factor 3: The Bitcoin Halving Event
The supply rate of bitcoin will reduce by half in May 2020, according to the cryptocurrency’s underlying protocol that reduces the bitcoin mining reward by 50 percent in every four years. Historical evidence shows that the bitcoin price has always surged following a “halving event.” The first supply cut, which took place in November 2012, pushed the BTC/USD rate from $11 to above $1,000. The next halving in 2016 saw the price later establishing an all-time high towards $20,000.
Bitcoin and Its History of Halving | Source: Reddit
Mr. Kelly called the next halving a “big picture” for bitcoin bulls. The analyst expected that the price would rally before the next bitcoin supply cut, and would continue its uptrend even after it.
“So you got this competition of a lot of demand coming in, and we’re heading into a period where the supply will cut,” he said. “That is generally very bullish.”
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NYPost Columnist Asks Donald Trump to Investigate Bitcoin Manipulation

A New York Post columnist has asked the United States, the European Union, and Chinese authorities to investigate who is behind the price manipulation in the bitcoin market.
Finance journalist John Crudele wrote that bitcoin is nothing more than a confidence game – where people denote value to an asset based on faith. It is likely for people to suddenly lose interest in “a fake digital currency,” which is backed by nothing and is “the definition of a con.” Excerpts:
“I’ve said the same thing when a bitcoin was selling for $20,000. And still was saying it when it plunged to $4,000. Its real worth: $0.”
Crudele asked authorities to look into bitcoin’s wild price moves, believing the likelihood of investors losing money like they did when bitcoin plunged from $20,000. The columnist also claimed that US President Donald Trump is an avid reader of his columns, which means that anything he writes against bitcoin would spontaneously alert the White House.
“Since I happen to know Donald Trump and I also happen to know that the president reads my column regularly, that’s what I’m suggesting right now,” warned Crudele. “No need to even make a phone call.”
The Criticism of Critics
Crudele’s recommendations followed the reactions he received after publishing an anti-bitcoin article on May 20, titled “Bitcoin will soon be worth zero.” The 93-word editorial attracted a lot of flacks from the cryptocurrency community, mostly for its lack of constructive criticism of bitcoin. Mike Dudas, a crypto-researcher at The Block, called Crudule’s article a “very lazy BTC trolling.” Morgan Creek Capital co-founder, Anthony Pompliano, joked that NYPost’s worth would fall to $0 before that of bitcoin.

Lol at this rate, NY Post will hit $0 before Bitcoin
— Pomp (@APompliano) May 21, 2019

In response, Crudele accused his critics of losing their minds whenever someone like him writes anything negative about bitcoin. The columnist wrote that he is keeping all the hate emails and tweets handy, taunting that their senders would be “thrilled to defend bitcoin in front of the investigators” from the US regulatory agencies, including the Securities & Exchange Commission, the Justice Department, and the IRS.
The Great Examples
Crudele said he did not start a hate campaign against bitcoin. Instead, he appeared to advise that it was financial heavyweights that have been critical of bitcoin. The journalist reminded that Warren Buffett, the chairman, and CEO Berkshire Hathaway, called bitcoin “rat poison squared,” while his associate, Vice Chairman Charlie Munger, said the cryptocurrency was “just dementia.”
The article further mentioned JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon who called bitcoin a fraud in 2017. However, the executive later backed-off that statement, saying that he was wrong about the cryptocurrency.
“Dimon was probably getting pressure from his company’s traders, who figure they can make a quick score before bitcoin collapses,” reasoned Crudele.
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Why the World’s Largest Bitcoin Exchange is Fighting a VC Behemoth

Changpeng Zhao has filed a claim for compensation against Sequoia Capital (China) for unfairly preventing him from raising funds for Binance, which has since become the biggest crypto exchange in the global market.
The chief executive blamed the venture capital firm for falsely accusing him of breaching exclusivity by initiating parallel discussions with a competition for equity. Zhao said that Sequoia received a December 2017 injunction order in an ex parte procedure without cautioning him, and consequently named him as a claimant in a notice for arbitration filed later in January 2018.

2/ I won, but the case was very damaging. First, Sequoia took out an injunction against me which prevented me from raising finance for Binance at the end of 2017 which was a critical time in the market and when there was huge interest in Binance from other VCs and investors. pic.twitter.com/Y6c5t2ngeb
— CZ Binance (@cz_binance) May 23, 2019

Three months later, a Deputy High Court Judge said in his judgment that Sequoia “use of the ex parte without notice procedure was an abuse of process,” which allowed Zhao “to seek to set aside the injunction that ground alone.” The judge further ordered Sequoia to compensate Zhao with 25 percent of the legal costs, adding that the Binance CEO could seek a revision in the compensation suggested by the court but within seven days of the ruling.
“Sequoia (China) paid $2,400,000 in legal fees for their part, and lost the case,” revealed Zhao. “I had to front $779,043 for over a year to cover my legal expenses, which eventually was paid by Sequoia because they lost. But I had to front it.”
Loss of Opportunities
Zhao noted that Sequoia took out an injunction order against him at the end of 2017, a period when funding into the crypto/blockchain startups had touched its historic high. The legal conditions eventually discouraged Binance from continuing their deals with other venture capitalists and investors who, according to Zhao, had a “huge interest” in their cryptocurrency exchange.
Cryptocurrency Market Valuation Established its All-Time High at Approx. $815 Billion in January 2018 | Image Credits: CMC
The Binance CEO also accused Sequoia of harming his reputation, adding that “a loophole in the legal system” did not allow him to make April 2018 rulings public. But the fact he got sued was made known right away.
“I have to countersue to make the results public,” stated Zhao.
Startups against Legal Loopholes
Zhao believes the case shows a broader pattern of bullying practiced by the venture capitalist firms all around the world. Most entrepreneurs or startups will not be able to front additional costs to fight a lawsuit, mainly when they have limited funding to develop their products.
“It is a huge distraction to have a legal case while running a startup,” said Zhao. “Many start-ups would have had no choice but to give in to the unfair terms/practices employed by the VC, a very famous VC at that.”

9/ For VCs, this tactic would have worked in most cases. It is a tool legally available to them. It is a weakness in our legal system, and unprofessional behaviour by VCs. VCs are supposed to help entrepreneurs. I don’t know how many other cases like these are out there.
— CZ Binance (@cz_binance) May 23, 2019

The executive thinks that startups can reduce their dependency on venture capital fundings by going through blockchain-based fundraising.
“We don’t just play defense. We fight for our industry,” Zhao said.
The court hearing will begin on June 25 in Hong Kong.
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Could Bitcoin Reach $100,000 in 2020? This Indicator Says Aye

Bitcoin is about to get a lot more expensive than it is today, according to Dr. Julian Hosp.
The author of ‘Cryptocurrencies Simply Explained‘ evaluated bitcoin’s future performance based on a textbook indicator that measures abundance in commodity markets. Titled Stock-to-Flow Ratio, the index measures the amount of an asset held in inventories (stock) with its annual production rate (flow). Overall, the ratio describes how much time it would take the Stock to reach the Flow.

Dr. Hosp noted that it would typically take 62 years for available gold to reach from Stock to Flow, which curbs its supply against high demand. At the same time, silver would take approx 22 years to complete a similar flow, making it slightly cheaper than gold.
However, bitcoin would take about 27 years to reach its total circulation of 17.7 million (stock) – at the rate of 657,000 per year. But following the halving, an event that would slash bitcoin’s supply from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC, the bitcoin’s annual Flow would reduce to 328,500 BTC.
Production Rate vs. Price
Gold’s Stock to Flow Ration is Highest Among Commodities
Dr. Hosp said the production was the most crucial factor in determining an asset’s value. Taking cues from Gold, the analyst noted that a higher valued yellow metal typically boosts production since miners expect higher profits which, in turn, increases the Gold’s Stock-to-Flow ratio. Meanwhile, the rise in mining output takes gold to the stage of overproduction, which means supply exceeds demand. As a result, the gold price comes down, makes mining unattractive, reduces the production rate, and eventually pushes the Stock-to-Flow Ratio up.
“In bitcoin,” said Dr. Hosp, “even if the price goes up, you cannot produce more bitcoin – it does not work, not like gold where you can increase production. There is always the same amount of flow because it’s 12.5 bitcoins every minute. The production remains stable.”
Bitcoin SF Model
Dr. Hosp added that bitcoin required to match Gold’s Stock-to-Flow Ratio of 62 years. But because the cryptocurrency’s production is stable, the ratio could only go up by price.
Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow 95% Accurate To Date | Image Credits: PlanB
The analyst applied Bitcoin SF Multiple – a ratio of bitcoin price to its SF model price – to understand the cryptocurrency’s top and bottoms. He found that the indicator had a 95 percent success rate to date, for it accurately called bitcoin’s overvaluation in 2011, 2013, and 2017. At the same time, the indicator was able to notice the cryptocurrency’s undervaluation during 2017 and summer 2018 session.
The SF Multiple showed that the bitcoin rate was 3-13 times higher than its SF model price thrice every time it jumped above 3.
At present, noted Dr. Hosp, the SF Multiple settled bitcoin’s actual price between $8,500 and $9,500.
There are also halvings which briefly separated the SF Multiple cycles. As bitcoin’s supply rate got slashed by half, the Stock-to-Flow Ratio will double to 54 (very close to gold). Dr. Hosp predicted it would take the cryptocurrency to at least $100,000, adding:
“Suddenly, we will have way less [bitcoin] production that what we have now. So in order to keep the Stock-t0-Flow Ratio stable, the bitcoin price will need at least to double. But it so much lower right now compared to Gold, if we get closer and close to the [precious metal], the price should approximately to go to a $100,000 – maybe even $300,000.”
There are also questions about who/what would move large amounts of fiat money into the bitcoin market. PlanB, the cryptocurrency analyst who first brought the Stock-to-Flow model to notice, believes that commodity markets, countries with negative interest rates, troubled economies, and institutional investors would more likely invest money in the crypto market.
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Here’s Why Gold Bull Peter Schiff is Blessing in Disguise for Bitcoin

The economic atmosphere in the United States has changed drastically over the last six months. Ahead of last year’s close, the stock market tanked, consumer spending experienced a sharp decline, and prominent economists predicted that a recession was around the corner.
And now, in May, the US economy is working smoothly and steadily without any sudden changes. Nevertheless, the pessimism and uncertainty about the future are higher than they have been since the last economic crisis. Business confidence underwent a terrible shock earlier this year due to the US government shutdown and further dipped owing to escalating economic tensions between the US and China. The risk: an economy which appears stable but is working on a life support system provided by the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Reserve Bluff
American stockbroker Peter Schiff explained the market’s overwrought conditions aptly in his latest analytical article, titled ‘Nope!, Nothing to See Here.’ The 56-year old financial commentator, who heads Euro Pacific Capital Inc, a broker-dealer firm based in Connecticut, discussed how the Federal Reserve was attempting to assure market players with everything-is-fine rhetoric based on Jereme Powell’s speech from May 20.
The Federal Reserve chairman talked about the high quantity of corporate debt, recognizing that it has reached “a level that should give businesses and investors reason to pause and reflect.” Nevertheless, he added that corporate leverage reaching record levels is not really “too big a cause for concern.”
“As of now, business debt does not present the kind of elevated risks to the stability of the financial system that would lead to broad harm,” Powell said.
Schiff believed that Powell’s reassurances meant nothing, now that the Federal Reserve was clueless after pumping the economy artificially over the last decade. It was a die-and-die situation for the US central bank, as the world looked upon it to decide on interest rates.
Die-and-Die
Reuters reported that the Fed was reluctant to cut the interest rates because the move would lead to another sharp increase in corporate debts. On the other hand, as Peter Schiff noted, the Fed could not even raise the rates, fearing that the move would “jack up the cost of servicing” of corporate debt.
“And,” the analyst added, “since the economy is built on all of the borrowings the central bank encouraged over the last decade, how can the boom keep going without more borrowing?”
Schiff believed that a recession was an unavoidable phenomenon. The Federal Reserve’s response to the 2008 economic crisis did not help the economy stabilize but pushed it further into a rabbit hole with zero interest rates, quantitative easing (QE) and money printing. And now, the market had no choice but to pop the bubble.
Back to Gold vs. Bitcoin Debate
The exciting thing about Peter Schiff’s argument is its similarity with the financial experts in the bitcoin industry. The cryptocurrency community has consistently spoken against the control of a central bank over its national economy – and it has long envisioned a recession, just like Schiff.
The only thing that separates Schiff with the rest of the cryptocurrency community is his belief in gold. The analyst positions the precious metal as a safe asset for investors should the worst come. But, at the same time, he rejects bitcoin, which is considered as ‘digital gold’ by its fans.

Schiff on Monday appeared in a Gold vs. Bitcoin debate with Saifeadean Ammous, the author of the Bitcoin Standard, where he explained why central banks and investors would never choose bitcoin over gold as a haven asset.
“When Nixon took us off the Gold standard in the 1970s, he said it was temporary. His decision did not just take the US but the entire world off the Gold standard because at that time the world was on the dollar standard and the dollar was backed by gold. The world trusted us to keep our promise, but we basically scr***d everybody.
“We’re going to have a monetary crisis, and then the world will go back to the Gold standard, one way or another.”

Huge props to @PeterSchiff for being the only gold bug willing to publicly defend gold and engage in the bitcoin vs gold debate
Amazing to me that a $8 trillion asset class has so few public advocates. The bench of informed bitcoin proponents is super deep and growing#DropGold
— Barry Silbert (@barrysilbert) May 22, 2019

Schiff added that bitcoin has no value – it’s all based on what people want to pay for it. In his response, Ammous argued that people would want to move to a non-confiscable, decentralized, and easily transferrable asset like bitcoin, which is what gave value to bitcoin.
Gold and Bitcoin Can Coexist
Austrian economist Ron Paul said in July last year that gold and bitcoin could co-exist as haven assets, stating that the marketplace has space for both cryptocurrencies and precious metals.
“The biggest challenge will be to get the government out of the way to allow this choice,” he wrote in his paper ‘The Dollar Dilemma.’ “It’s conceivable that cryptocurrencies, using blockchain technology, and a gold standard could exist together, rather than posing an either-or choice — Different currencies may be used for certain transactions for efficiency reasons.”
That said, with Schiff making the argument for the next economic crisis in public – just like he did ahead of the 2008 crash – the gold bull is more likely to help bitcoin than damage its prospects before the potential investors.

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Hedge Fund Execs Predict Bitcoin Price will Close 2019 at $9,659

The bitcoin price has surged a little above 114 percent in 2019 so far. But, according to a new poll, the cryptocurrency has extra fuel to sustain its upside action further.
US comparison website Finder surveyed ten FinTech capitalists, including executives from hedge funds Arca and BitBull Capital, on Friday. The portal found that a majority of them expected that bitcoin would pullback from its recently tested $8,000-level. However, they forecasted a strong rebound in June, which would push the cryptocurrency’s rate to as high as $9,659 by the end of this year.
Why So Bullish
Prices of bitcoin rose impressively in 2019 following an 85 percent depreciation the previous year. The April and May trading session alone saw a 50 percent appreciation in the bitcoin rate, having risen from $4,000 to above $8,000. At the same time, mainstream financial markets underperformed owing to escalating economic tensions between the US and China.

The surge in $BTC continues as the mounting fear about war with China drives US investors to look for safety, The only asset to outperform is the non correlated #Bitcoin, proving again that all $USD denominated assets such as stoc…https://t.co/j3Y1wz9hsc https://t.co/evkI9yIozO
— Alex Mashinsky (@Mashinsky) May 15, 2019

The Finder survey participants were quick to notice the inverse relationship between the two events. Almost half of them said mainstream investors diverted their capital from interim bearish equities to bitcoin as a sign of risk management.
Mark Pimentel, the founder, and one of the chief executives at Kronos, a high-frequency crypto trading company, admitted that they have been using bitcoin as a haven against the bearish mainstream markets, stating they were able to make substantial gains out of bitcoin’s volatile price swings.
“The cryptocurrency market is swayed by news and attention, so as bitcoin begins to rise in price again, more traders enter the market. It is much more likely for these entrants to buy bitcoin than sell. So this predictably creates price appreciation,” Pimentel said, adding that the bitcoin price could retest $20,000 in 2019.
Meanwhile, there were also who credited mainstream institutions, which have been lately building new services around the bitcoin market, as one of the main drivers behind the latest bitcoin price rally.
“Eight out of 10 panelists think the price of bitcoin increased due to cryptocurrency-related announcements made at Consensus 2019 in New York City,” said Finder.
The bitcoin price surged by as much as 77 percent upon the conclusion of the Consensus event.
Broader Adoption
David Wills, chief operating officer at Kinetic Capital, a cryptocurrency trading firm, said the bitcoin price is due for gains because of its potential for broader adoption as a currency. The Hong Kong-based executive cited Whole Foods, an Amazon-backed retailer, and Nordstrom, a North American chain of luxury department stores, for making his case. Both the retail stores accept cryptocurrencies as payments.
“Last year, the bear market was in part caused by the fallout from many loss-making, unsuccessful initial coin offerings, and the participation by [a number of] questionable players that attracted regulatory scrutiny in cryptocurrencies,” Wills told the South China Morning Post, adding that the bitcoin industry has become more mature than before.
The bitcoin price was trading at $7,960 at the time of this writing, up 152 percent since its cycle low.
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South Korean Bitcoin Exchanges Post Highest Fiat Influx

An average bitcoin investor in South Korea has dumped more fiat money than the one in other countries, reveals CryptoCompare.
The London-based data analytics firm found that cryptocurrency exchange BitHumb has received over $16 billion worth of fiat money in April 2019. The firm further noted that Upbit, a BitHumb-rival, posted the second-best influx of fiat-based capital at around $7.5 billion in the same month. At the same time, US-based exchanges Coinbase, Gemini, and Kraken paled in comparison, posting capital injections between $1-5 billion each.
South Korean Crypto Market Attracting Most Fiat Influx | Image Credits: Crypto Compare
The fiat statistics were similar if not the same in months before the bitcoin price boom.
Both BitHumb and Upbit topped the monthly fiat-to-crypto volume in February and March this year, revealing that the South Korean investors were accumulating cryptocurrencies better than others ahead of April 2, the date on which the bitcoin price popped through a rigorous resistance area. Nevertheless, crypto-to-fiat volumes on BitHumb dropped in April despite a favorable buying sentiment. The statistics, however, remained higher compared to the rest of the cryptocurrency exchanges, including Upbit, whose own crypto-to-fiat trading activity went up in April.
“Malta-registered exchanges represented the majority of trading volume, followed by those legally registered in Hong Kong and South Korea,” wrote CryptoCompare. “Monthly trading volume from Malta-registered exchanges increased 56% since February, while that of Hong Kong and South Korea-registered exchanges increased by 54% and 21% respectively.”
More Crypto Account Registrations
Hank Yung reported on Friday that more South Korean investors were lining up to register at the local cryptocurrency exchanges. The news service cited an individual who works for NH Bank, the institution which handles banking for BitHumb. He complained about working past office hours due to a rise in applications for virtual currency accounts. Excerpts (translated from Korean):
“As bitcoin price has surged to more than 10 million won, the demand for issuing password exchange accounts for investment has also increased.”

An employee at NH, a major bank in South Korea that handles banking for Bithumb, says new registrations for crypto trading is up substantially this week.
Seems like the rapid recovery of bitcoin has gotten the interest of retail investors.https://t.co/fPe08LC02p
— Joseph Young (@iamjosephyoung) May 18, 2019

Mati Greenspan, a senior market analyst at eToro, believes the crypto trend is South Korea exists beyond the spot exchanges and their banking partners. The analyst said on Monday that LocalBitcoins posted its highest bitcoin trading volume day on May 18, 201 against the South Korean Won.
“It’s not a lot,” said Greenspan. “Just about $165k. Still, it’s a good indication that the wave is growing again in one of the most enthusiastic crypto trading nations.”

SK also just reported their highest volumes ever @LocalBitcoins.
It's not a lot. Just about $165k. Still, it's a good indication that the wave is growing again in one of the most enthusiastic cryptotrading nations. pic.twitter.com/OcLsPWw6fE
— Mati Greenspan (@MatiGreenspan) May 20, 2019

US Dollar Dumped More than Won

In April, 60% of all #Bitcoin trading into fiat was made up of the US Dollar@CryptoCompare pic.twitter.com/1ibrFm1ZW1
— Unfolded (@cryptounfolded) May 20, 2019

Despite South Korea’s regional influence, the bitcoin market continues to attract the most substantial capital from the US market. CryptoCompare reports that bitcoin-to-dollar trading comprised 60 percent of the total fiat-enabled volume in April, followed by Euro, Japanese Yen, and South Korean Won. It loosely means that the South Korean exchanges attracted most of the fiat influx in the dollar.
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Here’s Why Peter Schiff Lambasting 60 Minutes For Pro Bitcoin Show is Optimistic

What happens when a bitcoin agnostic witnesses a 138-time Emmy award-winning TV show featuring the cryptocurrency in a good light? Peter Schiff can tell better.
The prominent stockbroker, who successfully predicted the 2008 economic crisis, lambasted CBS’ 60 Minutes for airing a “one-sided” segment on bitcoin. He argued that the successful TV show owed a significant degree of skepticism to a cryptocurrency which, according to his earlier statements, had no intrinsic value and resembled the infamous Tulip Mania bubble of the year 1637.
“60 Minutes just aired a free commercial for Bitcoin,” said Schiff. “Great press for Bitcoin owners looking to sell to CBS viewers who may be suckered into buying based on this very one-sided segment. At a minimum, CBS owed its audience a healthy degree of skepticism. Very bad reporting as usual!”

60 Minutes just aired a free commercial for Bitcoin. Great press for Bitcoin owners looking to sell to CBS viewers who may be suckered into buying based on this very one-sided segment. At a minimum CBS owed its audience a healthy degree of skepticism. Very bad reporting as usual!
— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) May 20, 2019

Weak Criticism
The 60 Minutes’ bitcoin report, which aired across the US on May 20, surprised even bitcoin believers with its pro-cryptocurrency narrative. The feature included comments from cryptocurrency influencers like Charlie Shrem, Marco Streng, and Neha Narula, with additional commentary on how a computer programmer named Laszlo Hanyecz who made the first real-world crypto payment by paying 10,000 BTC (almost $800 million per the current exchange rate) for a pizza.

Laszlo Hanyecz talks for first time on television about what is believed to be the first real-world transaction involving cryptocurrency. He paid 10,000 bitcoin for some pizza https://t.co/gOf1BKeQ6W pic.twitter.com/aCpT9w8bb6
— 60 Minutes (@60Minutes) May 19, 2019

Meanwhile, the show included responses from Lael Brainard, one of the governors of the Federal Reserve, who criticized bitcoin for lacking any government support.
“The US-currency has a whole set of legal protections around it,” Brainard told the 60 Minutes host Anderson Cooper. “The federal reserve and ultimately the U.S. treasury stand behind it. And when you hold your dollars in a bank account, you have deposit insurance.”
Brainard’s statement was the only criticism bitcoin received during the latest 60 Minutes episode, Schiff argued, while bitcoin believers took the rest of the screentime.
“And the criticism they chose to air was [feeble],” he added.
A few hours after Brainard’s statement made to the wire, the bitcoin community was already at it. Anthony Pompliano, the co-founder of Morgan Creek Capital, said the governor didn’t respond to the questions that concerned price manipulation in the US dollar market.
“Instead, she decided to talk about FDIC insurance and “legal protections,” said Pompliano followed by his trademark “Long Bitcoin, short the bankers” slogan.

In the 60 Minutes piece on Bitcoin, a Federal Reserve governor couldn’t respond to @AC360’s question about central bankers’ manipulation of US dollars.
Instead she decided to talk about FDIC insurance and “legal protections.”
LONG BITCOIN, SHORT THE BANKERS!!
— Pomp (@APompliano) May 19, 2019

Bullish Coverage?
Schiff hinted that 60 Minutes coverage made a bullish case for bitcoin before its viewers. He added that CBS viewers who believed the 60 Minutes coverage could end up buying the cryptocurrency at a higher rate only to realize heavy losses.
“The worst thing about Bitcoin is that after millions of people lose billions of dollars, the libertarian cause for sound money will suffer a major setback,” said Schiff. “Governments will get more powerful, and use the losses to increase regulation on legitimate alternatives to fiat currency.”
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