Ethereum (ETH) Is On The Verge Of A Game Changing Crash

Ethereum (ETH) broke past $200 in an impressive run up yesterday as the price shot straight past the 50 EMA on the 4H time frame breaching the 38.2% fib retracement level from the local top. RSI on the 4H chart for ETH/USD shows that the price is now trading under overbought conditions but if circumstances were different, this may not have stopped it from rallying higher. However, the reality on ground is that Ethereum (ETH) remains in bear trend despite the recent bullish move. The descending triangle that ETH/USD is trading in could end in a lot of blood especially because the next crash is going to be a game changer. The decline below $180 will convince a lot of traders that they have been wrong about the bear market being over or altcoin season being around the corner.

The ICO space is full of scams that are just ready to unfold. When the proverbial hits the fan, we are going to see a lot of these ‘projects’ declare bankruptcy and all of that is going to terribly hurt the altcoin market and coins like Ethereum (ETH) that have been used for such scams are going to be under fire from regulators and investors alike. It is true that there are some very hardworking teams in this space that really want to see this space succeed and they are more interested in the tech than the money but the fact remains that unregulated markets like these attracts all kinds of people and in the absence of meaningful regulation, investors are not protected which means founders of these scam ‘projects’ can just get away with anything. Of course, the end result of all that is that it brings a bad name to the entire space.

I’m a strong believer in the idea that news events or similar developments follow what is happening on the charts. So, if the price is poised for a decline, we will find a reason that supports the crash. Most of the times, it is either an exchange hack, regulatory crackdown or a ban. If we take a look at the daily chart for ETH/BTC, there is no way this looks bullish in any way. The price remains within a descending channel and it has yet to break past the trend line resistance.
Conditions are now ripe for Ethereum (ETH) to begin its next decline which I believe will have game changing consequences. Confidence  in altcoins is going to decrease further and when that happens more of the scams in this space will get exposed which is going to induce more fear in the market that will in turn hasten the inevitable which is Ethereum (ETH) falling to a price of $60 or lower toward the end of this bear market. There are a lot of people that are even more bearish calling for Ethereum (ETH) to go to zero but I don’t think that could happen. I wouldn’t discount a move to a single digit price but I don’t see ETH/USD going to zero despite all its flaws, shortcoming and unreasonable valuation. 
Source: Crypto Daily

Bitcoin (BTC) Manipulation Reaches New Highs As Turning Point Nears

Bitcoin has broken above the bearish pennant in an unprecedented turn of events. This move was quite surprising considering there was confluence of resistance zones and also because bearish pennants are usually broken to the downside. If we take a look at the definition of a bear pennant, it is pennant that results in the price breaking to the downside soon as it exits it. A pennant is a continuation pattern. So, if the price is going up before it enters a pennant, it is likely to keep going up after it exits the pennant. Similarly, when the price is going down as it enters a pennant; it is likely to keep going down after it breaks out of the pennant. This has already happened two times in the recent past but this time the price has invalidated classical technical analysis because the price is now at a turning point and the stakes are too high.

If we take a look at the 4H chart for BTC/USD, we can see that the price just shot past the 50 EMA. This happened because it was too obvious and a lot of bears had their stops just above the 50 EMA in anticipation of the pennant breaking to the downside. Needless to say, most of them were shaken out and I think this is what this move was all about. This is in no way an indication of real buying interest in the market. I think it is just manipulation because the whales had two pronged objectives here. They wanted to shake out the bears and they want to trap the bulls that took this is a sign of a bullish reversal. They are going to give the longs more time to stack up and then they are going to ‘help’ the market do the inevitable and a lot of these bulls will be either liquidated or left holding the bags.

It is interesting to note that the last time Bitcoin (BTC) invalided a bearish pennant was in December, 2018. I think the fact that we have seen a move similar to December, 2018 is not just coincidence. Over the next few days you will find posts on Crypto Twitter saying that “when Bitcoin invalidated the bear pennant last time, it ended up rallying hard as it ended up shooing past $13k.” This is what the market makers want them to believe. They want them to believe that they will come to their rescue again to ‘help’ the price rally higher again with Tether pumps. This is why some analysts and traders are now talking about the “bull flag” on the daily chart but they won’t go back in time to see how that ended back in 2017-18 when everyone was expecting that “bull flag” to lead to the price rallying towards $50,000. I think times like these calls for less greed and more caution. If you want to protect your investment, this might be the time to do it, because in the upcoming days and weeks, it might be a little too late.  
Source: Crypto Daily

Bitcoin (BTC) Rally Comes To An End As Price Runs Into Strong Resistance

Bitcoin (BTC) made an impressive rally in the past 24 hours but that rally has now come to an end as the price has run into a strong resistance at the 38.2% fib retracement level at the $10.691 level. This is a strong resistance level but it is important to note that the price is currently trading above the 50 day EMA. It shot up past the 21 day EMA as well but it soon retraced below it and is now expected to close the day below both the 38.2% fib retracement level as well as the 21 day EMA. That would formally mark the end of this bullish advance to the upside as further downside follows in the days and weeks ahead.

It is becoming increasingly clear that there is not enough bullish momentum for BTC/USD to rally past the 38.2% fib retracement level towards the top of the descending triangle. The most likely scenario is that the price is not going to rally to the top of the descending triangle and end up crashing below it to find a temporary bottom around in the low $8,000s. This could pave the way for a rally to the upside but investors need to be careful as this move will tilt the balance in favor of the bears and mark the beginning of a more brutal correction. Recently, the Token Plus exit scammed siphoned off more than $3 billion dollars of their victims money. Now that is an obvious exit scam where the team just runs away with your money. However, there are other more organized scams in this space that are yet to unfold.

Amateur con artists run away with investors’ funds but those that are more skilled in the game try to do this Bernie Madoff and Elizabeth Holmes style. They try to sell you a dream and a hope and they dump on you while you buy. Sounds a bit far-fetched? Just do a comparison of market cap and coin supply of most of the ICOs. I know it is going to be hard in some cases to see what time insiders bought and sold but even a look at token supply should tell you what time the founders were dumping tokens on their investors.
In my days as a penny stocks trader, I have seen all kinds of things but usually it is a company pretending to be big. They do not necessarily have the wrong intentions; they just want to get the money to grow. That was wrong too but it comes nowhere close to what we have here. If we take a look at the 4H chart for BTC/USD, we can see that the bearish pennant has been broken to the upside. This is a prime example of a fake out. Market makers are fighting tooth and nail to get traders to buy those coins, preferably on margin so they can dump on them in the weeks ahead. It is important to note that Bitcoin (BTC) could still have a future long term but at this point we are a long way from the end of this bear market just yet.     
Source: Crypto Daily

Ethereum (ETH) Bulls Are Fighting A Lost Battle Hoping For Altcoin Season

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are fighting a battle and that battle is to prove to the world that Bitcoin (BTC) could be a good hedge during times of crisis and that it can be a store of value. That may be considered a lost battle as well but not as lost as the one Ethereum (ETH) bulls are fighting and in this analysis we will see why. First of all, while Bitcoin (BTC) is hailed as digital gold by some, Ethereum (ETH) is not digital anything. It is just a smart contracts platform that derives its valuation from the high number of useless ICOs that have been accepting ETH as the primary payment method. So, if everyone was buying ETH to partake in ICOs, it is not surprising to see how Ethereum (ETH) became the second largest coin by market capitalization.

Ethereum (ETH) still has an unjustifiable market capitalization and the price still remains in a downtrend. If we take a look at the 1H chart for ETH/USD, it has run into the 61.8% fib retracement level as well as a strong trend line resistance at the same time. Meanwhile, its RSI has shot past 70 and it is trading in a bear flag that could break to the downside anytime now. In the recent past when its RSI was above 70, it was followed by large moves to the downside. The same is expected to happen this time but not just because it has rallied to far too fast. Ethereum (ETH) has run into a confluence of resistance zones and is now in no position to rally higher from here. This means that the bears are better positioned to take control and drag the price below $180 resulting in ETH/USD forming a lower low.

If we take a look at the 4H chart for Ethereum Dominance (ETH.D), we can see that it already broke below our fib circle and is now trying to test the last broken ring again. However, before it could do that, it got stopped at a strong resistance around the 7.72 mark and is now expected to decline further. One thing that is very important to note here is that when we are in a bull market or an altcoin season, Ethereum (ETH) dominance rises not falls because cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP) and Litecoin (LTC) outperform Bitcoin (BTC) most of the time during a bull market. 
The fact that Ethereum Dominance (ETH.D) is in a downtrend tells us that there is more downside to come for the market. A lot of popular influencers on Crypto Twitter have recently changed their tone but they won’t admit that they were wrong and we are still in a bear market. I think the next few months will make that clear to everyone when Ethereum (ETH) falls to a double digit price and ends up falling below the $80 mark to find its true bottom towards the end of this bear market.
Source: Crypto Daily

Bitcoin (BTC)’s Rally Towards $11,000 Loses Steam, Downtrend Remains Intact

Bitcoin (BTC) seemed to be rallying towards the top of the descending channel when it found a temporary bottom in the $9,400s but the price action now indicates that it may not have the momentum to pull that off. This is because the price has run into a number of bearish setups at the same time. First of all, the price is trading within a bearish pennant that is close to being broken anytime now. Second of all, it has run into the 38.2% fib retracement level from where it topped out at the top of the descending channel. Meanwhile, the 50 EMA has broken below the 200 EMA and BTC/USD is trying really hard to remain above the 21 EMA on the 4H chart. All of these developments make a rally towards $11,000 less probable from here. 

When BTC/USD first declined towards $9,482 and found support at the bottom of the descending triangle, we pointed to the possibility of it rallying towards the top of the descending triangle. However, we also noted that it does not have to necessarily happen and even if it were to happen, betting on the price going up would be going against the trend. There is no harm in going against the crowd as the crowd is wrong most of the time but you have to follow the trend because the trend is your friend. The trend here is a downtrend. The price could break below the $9,482 level without having to go towards $11,000 again. When that happens, it will decline towards the bottom of this descending channel and find a temporary bottom in the $8,000s.

Chasing the price of Bitcoin (BTC) to the upside from here is synonymous to fighting a losing battle. The chart we see above is the daily chart for EUR/USD. The Euro declined massively against the US Dollar since the beginning of 2018 but it has yet to see a brutal crash down to the next support. Usually, such drastic moves are supported by global political or economic events. Regardless of what the catalyst might be, we have seen many a time that real life events support what is happening on the charts most of the time.
If EUR/USD is meant to decline, we will see some sort of political events that will lead to the US Dollar rising against the Euro. This has happened before countless times and it will happen again. The trade war situation, the conflict with Iran and developments in the Middle East are some of the trigger points. When the market needs a push, world leaders use some of these trigger points to make it happen. EUR/USD is very likely to break below this descending triangle and when that happens, you do not want to be holding Bitcoin (BTC) or any other cryptocurrencies because when the US Dollar goes up against the Euro, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) comes down in dollar terms.
Source: Crypto Daily

Ethereum (ETH) Likely To Plunge Below $180 To Complete Correction

Ethereum (ETH) is trading within a large falling wedge. The price is likely to eventually break out of this falling wedge and rally higher potentially towards the 38.2% fib retracement level at $232.15 but it is unlikely to happen before the price sees further downside from current levels. We can spot a downtrend on the RSI on the 4H chart for ETH/USD. That being said, the support at $180 is a strong one but we expect it to be broken nonetheless in order for Ethereum (ETH) to complete its correction. There is also the possibility that this falling wedge might be invalidated in the face of strong bearish momentum and the price could fall a lot lower. 
Any hopes of the price going up to test the $232.15 resistance or to go higher than that are just temporary. If the price breaks below the $180 mark and begins its downtrend, it is going to have a very hard time to break above this level again. This is how we expect the systemic downtrend to begin and this is how ETH/USD will decline to a double digit price before it finds its true bottom. Ethereum (ETH) is not the only altcoin that is on the verge of a brutal downtrend. Most other altcoins face the same fate as BTC/USD is due for further downside and when it begins to fall, altcoins are going to fall a lot harder. If we take a look at the 4H chart for ETH/USD again, we can see that the price has decline in a symmetrical manner. The most likely scenario here is for the price to decline below the $180 mark and test the bottom of the rising wedge. Then it is expected to break out of the falling wedge but remain below $180 after which it could fall sharply to resume its downtrend.

Investors are losing faith in altcoins. The daily chart for Altcoin Dominance (Others.D) shows us that there is plenty of room for altcoin dominance to decline now that it has faced a strong rejection at the 38.2% fib retracement level. This is in line with our expectations because we expect Bitcoin dominance to rise close to 90% in the months ahead. The only way this is going to happen is if Bitcoin (BTC) were to hold its ground better than most altcoins. 
We expect BTC/USD to fall further because we don’t think the bear market is over just yet which is why it makes sense to think that altcoin dominance has yet to fall further. Just because a coin is down 90% does not mean that it couldn’t fall by another 90% from there. In other words, if you invest in an altcoin thinking it has declined 90%, you could still be down by another 90% if it declines that much in the future. It could also end up a lot worse than that in the case of altcoins because most altcoin projects are completely useless with nothing to back their insane valuations.
Source: Crypto Daily

Litecoin (LTC) Stays Strong Above $70 But Bigger Threats Loom Over

Litecoin (LTC) has done a really good job at holding its ground above $70 but that should not be confused for a bullish momentum long term. In fact, the manner in which LTC/USD is holding this level will only pave the way for a short term relief rally but that’s all it is going to achieve. Litecoin (LTC) is extremely unlikely to rise to a new yearly high from here. Recent moves have exposed its game plan and it has now broken below critical trend line supports which means that further downside is very likely after a short term relief rally while Bitcoin (BTC) completes its move up towards the top of the descending triangle.

The price of Litecoin (LTC) profited the most off its halving hype. Although other cryptocurrencies profited off the halving hype as well but Litecoin (LTC) was its main beneficiary as it ended up rallying aggressively and laying the trend for the rest of the market. Now that it has topped out and broken below key structural supports, we are going to see it fall hard as it completes a long overdue correction. While it may be a sign of relief short term to think that Litecoin (LTC) is holding its ground above $70 but we need to think about the bigger threats that loom over. Apart from the correction that the price has to go through, we need to think about how the next downtrend is going to affect the altcoin market.

The altcoin market as a whole is at risk of a major cleansing that will wipe out most useless tokens. Litecoin (LTC) is the fifth largest coin by market cap which makes it hard to think that it will be wiped off the market despite it arguably being a useless token. However, in this market, we have seen something happen over and over again and that is investors moving towards the next hot thing. So, Litecoin (LTC) might be the fifth largest coin by market cap today but it may not be in that position for long.
The daily chart for LTC/BTC shows that we could still see further downside in Litecoin (LTC) before it breaks out of the falling wedge. Even if it breaks out of the falling wedge, it is not likely to begin its next bullish cycle till it completes its correction and falls below $50 in the months ahead. Litecoin (LTC) is a coin that has received most of its major boosts from hype. The first major boost came from the Coinbase hype when it was first listed there. After that, we have seen halving events prop up its price. For some reason, this coin has managed to not only stay around but it remains the fifth largest coin by market cap despite being nothing more than a Bitcoin (BTC) spinoff. Whether or not it has a future long term remains to be seen but for now investors need to be cautious as Litecoin (LTC) is at risk of more than just a price correction.
Source: Crypto Daily

Bitcoin (BTC) Likely To Fall Below $9,500 Again As Bulls Lose Control

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading within a bear flag that could soon break to the downside and then the price would be on its way to fall down to $9,473 again. We have been expecting a retest of this level and it is likely that it may happen soon. However, it is important to note that there is too much uncertainty in the market. Traders are unsure as to which way the price could go from here and that is seen in the form of extreme volatility in the market. There have been a lot of misleading moves today. At first, the price gave traders the impression that it was forming an ascending triangle. Soon after, it invalidated that triangle and entered a bearish pennant. Then it invalidated that bearish pennant and has now entered a bear flag.

The bear flag seen on the 15 min chart for BTC/USD has a very high probability of breaking to the downside. That being said, it may not necessarily see the price decline to $9,473. One thing to realize here is that the price does not have to form a double bottom. For all we know, it could start rallying from current levels and we need to be prepared for that eventuality. The market makers are having fun liquidating bulls and bears to both sides as uncertainty prevails in the market. The whales and market makers just love uncertainty and it is during such times that they make the most money. The same goes for professional traders. Eventually, Bitcoin (BTC) will fall below $9,473 and fall towards lower levels as it breaks below the descending triangle but before that happens, it is going to shake out a lot of impatient traders.

Bitcoin (BTC) is eventually going to break below the descending triangle seen on the daily chart and when that happens, it’s all going to unfold very quickly. We still expect the price to rise towards the top of the descending triangle before it breaks below it but this should not be your focus as a long term investor. The move up from here might present trading opportunities but now that BTC/USD has topped out after the parabolic run up, investors need to realize that this is the time to be selling and not buying Bitcoin (BTC) or other cryptocurrencies.
The Fear and Greed Index is at 31 today up from 13 yesterday which is a sign of extreme bullish euphoria in the market. A lot of people are still too eager to buy the dips and this is why we are seeing this double bottom forming inside the descending triangle as the market makers and whales prey on this bullish euphoria. Long term, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has to decline below $3,000 to find a bottom most likely between $1,200 and $1,800. We expect that to happen around Bitcoin (BTC)’s next halving. Despite Bitcoin (BTC)’s bearish outlook for the time being, we still believe that Bitcoin (BTC) has a real shot at becoming a global digital currency in the years ahead.
Source: Crypto Daily

Ethereum (ETH)’s Next Move Will Have Major Implications For Altcoins

Ethereum (ETH)’s next big move is going to have major implications for the altcoin market. This next big move is not only happening on the ETH/USD front but also on the Ethereum Dominance (ETH.D) front. The Fib circle on the daily chart for Ethereum Dominance (ETH.D) shows that Ethereum (ETH) could either make it or break it from here. The outlook of the altcoin markets hinges on the next big move on Ethereum (ETH). Just like Bitcoin Futures, Ethereum (ETH) Futures are offered by a lot of exchanges and this affects the price action in Ethereum (ETH) in a major way. The altcoin market moves with Ethereum (ETH) which is now also heavily influenced by futures trading.

Market makers have finally tamed the altcoin market because they control Ethereum (ETH) now. Whichever way they send Ethereum (ETH), the rest of the altcoin market will follow. So far, Ethereum (ETH) and other altcoins have performed miserably against Bitcoin (BTC) but all of that might soon change if Ethereum dominance (ETH.D) rises above the previously broken support at 8.92. Fortunately, we don’t have to wait that long to see how this is going to play out. If the dominance breaks the upper fib circle, we will see a retest of the previously broken support which means Ethereum (ETH) will rise more than Bitcoin (BTC) or hold its ground better against Bitcoin (BTC) as it did in the past few days. If dominance breaks the lower ring, then we will see it fall to new lows and Ethereum (ETH) and other altcoins will get battered hard as a strong downtrend follows.

It gets interesting when we take a look at the ETH/USD chart. We can see that Ethereum (ETH) is on the verge of declining below the 38.2% fib extension level any time now. It is already trading below the 200 day EMA and could soon see further downside from here because the price is simultaneously trading within a descending triangle as well which could see it break to the downside to find support around $144 short term. By the look of things, it appears that all of this is going to happen soon. We already have a decline below the bear flag on the RSI and there is a lot of room for further downside from here.
Eventually, we see the price declining to $60 or lower levels before it finds its true bottom. A decline to double digits will be accelerated by a lack of faith in altcoins. What we see at the moment in the form of Bitcoin (BTC) losing ground against Ethereum (ETH) is mainly because whales cashed out from altcoins into Bitcoin (BTC) first so Bitcoin (BTC) pumped insanely while altcoins lagged behind. Now, they are cashing out Bitcoin (BTC) into fiat (USD, EUR, GBP etc.) which is why the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is falling harder than altcoins. As a lot of retail traders see big spikes on their ETH/BTC or Altcoin/BTC charts, they are going to buy these altcoins expecting a trend reversal and that is when the whales will dump on them again. So, yes it helps to look at the charts but it helps more to understand the game plan.
Source: Crypto Daily

Correlation Between Insured Unemployment, S&P 500 And Bitcoin (BTC)

Everyone is trying to time the next recession. There are analysts that have been calling for “the crash” since 2012. People have different ways of looking at this. Some use debt to GDP ratios, some use debt to the S&P 500 ratio, some use unemployment to the S&P 500 ratios. Analysts then delve deeper into specifications of the variables they intend to use. So, analysts use different models comparing different kinds of debts and different kinds of unemployment. I like to use the Insured unemployment to S&P 500 ratio. Insured unemployment means that if you get unemployed without it being your fault, the government pays you. If we look at Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment) on the monthly chart, we can see that it is close to where it was during 1975.

In other words, there are plenty of jobs around because there are plenty of businesses around. More than a decade long quantitative easing after the last financial crisis made borrowing cheaper. So, people borrowed money from the banks and started businesses. Central banks around the world started cutting rates and there was free money to be injected into everything. The end result of all that was a massive boom in the stock market as shown by the S&P 500. If we look at the last two peaks in the S&P 500 and how the market corrected from there, they look minor pullbacks compared to what we will see this time. If we take a look at the chart again, we can see that the last two times the market topped out, we saw insured unemployment bottom. As we can see on the chart, insured unemployment is about to bottom again, but a lot of analysts and traders mistakenly believe that the next rise in insured unemployment is going to trigger the next recession in a year or two from now.

I disagree with that because I think the S&P 500 still has plenty of room to rally. I think we will see a sharp pullback as insured unemployment rises in the months ahead but I don’t see this triggering the next recession just yet. In fact, the Fed is very likely to go back to quantitative easing from here. We could see more rate cuts after the next pullback which will pave the way for another rally. So, what does all of this mean for Bitcoin (BTC)?
If we take a look at the monthly chart for BTC/USD, we can see that it is close to beginning a sharp downtrend. It will see the price find its true bottom below $3,000. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 will decline as well and it will be a strong decline that will maximize fears of the next recession. Smart money will buy in and the market will rally again and then the retail investors will follow. The same goes for Bitcoin (BTC). As the Fed keeps cutting rates, the stock market and the altcoin market will benefit well from this during the bullish cycle that will follow after the correction. In six to seven years from now when Bitcoin (BTC) is finally at a point where it is not making such volatile moves, maybe it will be a safe haven asset in times of crisis especially during the next depression (not recession).
Source: Crypto Daily

Litecoin (LTC) Risks Further Downside Against Bitcoin (BTC) But Not For Long

Litecoin (LTC) is at risk of further downside against Bitcoin (BTC) as the price has just run into a strong resistance at the 38.2% fib retracement level. LTC/BTC is now likely to decline to the bottom of the falling wedge but the big picture tells us that we might see further upside from here soon as the price breaks out of the falling wedge. This tell us that we could see a mini altcoin rally towards the end of the year but this does not mean that we are on the cusp of a bull market. All it means is that Litecoin (LTC) might soon see further upside against Bitcoin (BTC). Confidence in altcoins has been the lowest for the most time since the beginning of the year.

Investors have been more comfortable keeping funds in Bitcoin (BTC) instead of altcoins. This has now turned into a mainstream trend which is why it might be time for it to reverse. The price could rise towards the 61.8% fib retracement level to say the least soon as it breaks out of the falling wedge but that means that should not be confused with the beginning of a bullish market cycle. Litecoin (LTC) failed to rally after its Litecoin (LTC) halving. We expect that the price might see some moves to the upside after the upcoming downtrend. This is likely to convince some investors that we are probably in a bull market and that is what we expect to happen from this point onwards. The market makers are going to keep on trapping more bulls and then systemically wipe them out.

Before we get all excited about an upcoming bullish rally in Litecoin (LTC) against Bitcoin (BTC), we need to consider that LTC/USD still remains on the verge of a strong downtrend. The price broke a key uptrend as it declined below the strong support established since the beginning of the parabolic advance. This support will now be tested as resistance and the price will have a hard time breaking past it. The most likely scenario is that the price will decline to the 61.8% fib extension level and then eventually decline well below it. It is true that the price will see further upside against Bitcoin (BTC) from here but it has yet to see more downside against the US Dollar (USD) and that is more important to focus on.
Any investments in altcoins to capitalize on the mini altcoin season should be considered just that accounting the risks of further downside in Litecoin (LTC) against the US Dollar (USD). A lot of traders and analysts lay too much emphasis on halving but we need to realize that Litecoin (LTC) was hyped up enormously before its halving. It is now likely to see a major correction as investors cash out. It is important to realize that in every market, the whales and the market makers are that profit the most off every opportunity. If the price were to keep on rising from here that would mean that retail traders have most of the coins that mostly have weak hands and give in to emotions. This is why we don’t see a new bullish cycle before most of the coins change hands from weak to strong hands at lower prices and that is when we will see the beginning of a new cycle.
Source: Crypto Daily

Bitcoin (BTC) Likely To Plunge Below $10,000 In The Weeks Ahead

Bitcoin (BTC) has already begun its downtrend to the bottom of the descending triangle and the price has just broken below the fib circle on the weekly chart. It would not be surprising to see the price decline straight to the bottom of the descending triangle in a matter of one or two weeks. It could take longer but we are most likely to see a sharp decline which will serve two objectives. Firstly, it will discourage shorts from stacking up. Secondly, it will create the right conditions for a bounce up towards the top of the descending triangle again. Like it or not, this decline is going to be boring. Now that BTC/USD has broken this fib circle, it is expected to decline to the next fib circle but it will take its time.

Unlike most other cryptocurrency pairs, we are yet to see BTC/USD, decline even below the 21 day EMA. This means that the majority of retail bulls have every reason to keep on expecting further upside from here. A small percentage of bulls would recognize that the price has topped out and it is time to sell but the majority will keep expecting this rally to continue until it is too late. If we were to not to take other factors into account that tell us that further downside is to follow, then it would make sense to keep thinking that the price could still go up. In other words, thinking that the price is going to fall from here is against the trend. Bitcoin (BTC) remains in an uptrend for now, but we believe that it has topped out here.

Those that entered bullish positions early on would still be very reasonable and responsible traders if they want to wait this out until we have a bear trend. They would want to wait at least till BTC/USD falls below the 21 Day EMA but they will lose a lot in potential profits. That being said, those that are still bullish would need to keep an open mind to turn bearish if the conditions change as we expect. The vast majority of traders are too stubborn and too reluctant to change their mind if something goes against them which is why only a small percentage of traders make consistent profits. Bitcoin (BTC) confirmed an uptrend soon after it shot straight past the resistance zone around $6,000 but a lot of traders still worried as to what might follow next. They were right to worry because Bitcoin (BTC) has not bottomed yet.
Previously a lot of analysts and traders thought that we might be in the 2015 part of the last cycle but now we know that we are in the 2014 part of the cycle. Bitcoin (BTC) still remains bullish for now but that should not make us oblivious to the fact that market is long overdue for a major correction that is going to pull the price down to around $9,482 from here. After that it might rally towards the top of the descending triangle again but eventually it is going to decline lower till it bottoms between $1,200 and $1,800. To a lot of new traders that come from an equities trading or forex trading background, it does not make much sense why they shouldn’t just go with the flow but considering the pace of movements in this market it is not only an edge, but a necessity to analyze all such moves in advance.
Source: Crypto Daily

Bitcoin (BTC) Primed For A Major Decline Below $11,000

Bitcoin (BTC) is primed for a major decline below $11,000. In the past 24 hours we have seen it attempt to test the $11,093 support and it succeeded in holding that support. However, back then the price had room to rally. Now, the RSI has run into its downtrend resistance and the price has already begun it decline from the key resistance zone of $11,476. We expect the price to crash hard from here most likely before the end of the day. We could see a major move all the way down to the 200 EMA on the 4H chart for BTC/USD which might subsequently be followed by further downside. Ultimately, we expect the price to decline to its true bottom around $1,200-$1,800 but it is not going to happen in a manner that would spook the bulls. 

The market makers do not want the bulls spooked. We have the Longs to Shorts ratio for Bitcoin (BTC) at 70% to 30% in favor of the bulls which means that most retail traders are likely to be punished hard for their extreme optimism eventually but it is not going to happen in a way that would spook them and convince them to cash out. What’s more likely to happen instead is that the price is going to decline and then the bulls would be presented opportunities to “buy the dip”. They will keep buying the dip and when they realize what is going on, it will be too late. This is nothing new, it happened during the previous downtrend as price declined from its all-time high. However, traders keep falling for the same tricks over and over again and this is how financial markets keep operating.

Influencers on Crypto Twitter and elsewhere are really making it difficult for amateur retail bulls that see Bitcoin (BTC) as a “store of value” or a “hedge against everything”. Some of these influencers may actually be naïve enough to not realize what is going on but I wouldn’t think that most fund managers with billions in asset under management would be unaware of what is really going on. They want to keep the average investors optimistic so they can dump systemically on them as they have before. We do not have to go very far in history to see their track record. If you look at their statements when BTC/USD was trading around all-time high, most of them were unanimously calling for a rally to $30k or $50k. 
Now, if we take a look at Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) we can see that its uptrend remains intact despite a minor pullback. It is still possible for the dominance to decline to the top of the ascending triangle that it broke but the most likely scenario would be for it to shoot up from here as Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies tumble from here. Even if Bitcoin dominance closes the day around current levels without going higher, we will have a close above the 200 Week EMA which is a strong bullish indicator for Bitcoin dominance and a strong bearish indicator for the market in general indicating that further downside is to follow.  
Source: Crypto Daily

Ethereum (ETH) Tumbles To A New Low Against Bitcoin (BTC)

Ethereum (ETH) has just declined to a new low against Bitcoin (BTC). We have not seen it declined this low against Bitcoin (BTC) since the beginning of the bear market. It appears that ETH/BTC is now prepared to decline to the pre-bull run levels of 2017 effectively erasing most of its gains. Needless to say, things do not look good for Ethereum (ETH) and the rest of the altcoin market. Investors still have some hope in Bitcoin (BTC) as it is holding its ground better compared to Ethereum (ETH) but they have no confidence in Ethereum (ETH) which is shown by the price action. ETH/BTC broke a key support against Bitcoin (BTC) in the beginning of July and since then it has been in a steady decline.

We can see that the price did not even attempt to retest the support as it declined. In fact, it is now eyeing a decline towards the bottom of the descending channel. Before the price touches the bottom of this channel, there is no hope because there is no strong support that could save the pair from falling that low. When it reaches the bottom of this channel around the end of the year, we might see some short term relief. We expected Bitcoin (BTC) and the rest of the market to bottom before June, 2020 and that seems to be in motion now. It is not clear yet how that is going to affect coins like Ethereum (ETH) and whether or not they might rise to a new all-time high again but it is quite clear that these coins have yet to see maximum pain and that they will in the weeks and months ahead.

The 4H chart for ETH/USD shows that the price of Ethereum (ETH) has tanked brutally in the past 24 hours. It is now trading around $211 and could plunge below $200 anytime now. It is pertinent to note that we are not going to just fall slightly below $200 this time; the price is going to tank a lot lower than that and it is going to end up finding a bottom at a double digit price. We expect this to be around $50-$60 but it could fall lower.
If Ethereum (ETH) closes the day around current level, it will accelerate its downtrend. When this week began, we said that Ethereum (ETH)’s move to the upside towards $240 was a fake rally just to shake out the bears because we had just seen the price close below the 21 Week EMA and it did not make much sense to see the price go that high amid all the bearish signs. However, whenever the market is too obviously bearish, the market makers give the bears a run for their money. That is what happened this time as well, most of those bears with tight stops around obvious levels were shaken out and now the price is doing what it was supposed to do in the first place.
Source: Crypto Daily

Litecoin (LTC) Halving Finally Happened But Why Is The Price Not Shooting Up?

Litecoin (LTC) halving has finally occurred but the price is not shooting up as the market expected it to. In fact, it keeps on falling back to the $100 mark and is struggling to remain above it. If we take a look at the daily chart for LTC/USD, we can see that it has finally broken the 38.2% fib extension level to the upside which is a bullish sign but it has yet to break past the 50 day EMA. It has now retraced aggressively below the 50 day EMA and for good reason. If we take a look at this daily chart since December, 2018 we can see that Litecoin (LTC) traded more aggressively than any other coin and was extremely bullish until June. In fact, Litecoin halving is what gave most investors reason to expect further upside in the market.

So, if we think about it, people who invested based on hype or FOMO are still in profit. This rarely happens in the market and even if it happens it does not end well as we have seen in the past. Let’s just assume that Litecoin (LTC) will keep on rising from here. Now, there are two things to consider. First of all, retail traders have gobbled up most of the coins as Litecoin (LTC) halving neared. So, this means that the market makers have fewer coins than before and the balance is now in favor of retail traders. Second of all, once traders saw the parabolic advance begin, they started entering margined longs. Even if most of these traders entered long positions at a late stage, they are still in profit. So, if LTC/USD were to go up from here, the market makers would not only have fewer coins than retail traders but they would be paying massive payouts to those sitting on margined longs.

Fortunately, the market is not yet a place to reward dumb money over smart money. People that do their research and due diligence will always be ahead of those that follow the hype. Let us now take a look at the daily chart for LTC/BTC. The second last Litecoin halving was on August 25, 2015. You can take a look at the chart and see what happened to the price after that. It flashed crashed by 95% and it ended up declining 81% eventually.
That is when the Litecoin halving FOMO bubble burst and retail investors were left surprised because they expected a rally to the moon after halving. It is very important to note that this correction during Litecoin (LTC)’s second last halving of August, 2015 happened when the market was just preparing to enter a bullish cycle. I think the circumstances are even worse this time as we are not on the verge of a bullish cycle.  We are in the 2014, not in the 2015 part of the last cycle which means that Litecoin (LTC) might end up falling more than 90% against Bitcoin (BTC) from here onwards.
Source: Crypto Daily