Bitcoin Beats a Retreat Below $5k, Has The Final Capitulation Started?

The inevitable pullback has started and crypto markets are beating a retreat at the moment. Bitcoin is leading them down as it drops back below $5,000 dumping 6 percent on the day. The question now is how low will it go?
Minor Pullback or Major Correction?
A number of analysts had predicted a major capitulation before any real trend reversal begins and this could be the start of it. Looking at the charts last bear market cycle in 2015 they’re virtually identical to patterns emerging this time around.
If the same scenario plays out Bitcoin is about to dump back to around $4,000 or lower in what has been termed a final capitulation. This will be the trigger for an influx of buyers to drive prices back up and through current resistant levels at moving averages to mark a longer term trend reversal.
Crypto trader Josh Rager has anticipated more sideways trading until the CME futures expire later this month. A long drawn out accumulation period has also been predicted with some not expecting any real upwards momentum late this year.

$BTC could see some sideways action in the next couple weeks up until Bitcoin CME Futures expiration on 04/26
Not exactly expecting fireworks yet but it's only one scenario and it is a volatile asset
This accumulation cycle can likely take a lot longer than most people think pic.twitter.com/nPYLOFV4IB
— Josh Rager (@Josh_Rager) April 11, 2019

Others are a little more confident that markets will not slide back to new lows. A couple of months ago several analysts were predicting a massive dump all the way down to $2,000 or lower but those notions appear to have dried up.
Technical analyst Alex Krüger does not expect Bitcoin to fall that far back as there is major support still at $4,600 where the 200 day moving average is.

Coinbase high was $5489. Don't expect a pullback to $4000. Too deep.
– Support: 5000, 4780-4680, 4550 (200DMA), 4400, 4200– Resistance: 5350, 5500, 5750 (weak), 6000, 6400 https://t.co/IbAe07wTEZ
— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) April 11, 2019

Total Market Cap Bleeds $18 Billion
This sentiment has been echoed by other traders looking at the market cap as a whole;

Odds are this bounces very soon. If you're still holding, I wouldn't panic and sell here.$crypto pic.twitter.com/secIs3gwrr
— The Hodlonaut Dog (@TheCryptoDog) April 12, 2019

Crypto markets have dumped over $18 billion since their 2019 high of $185 billion on Monday. Altcoins are purging the most at the moment with several such as Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin SV and Ethereum Classic dumping double digits on the day. Markets have hit their lowest levels for the week with total cap dropping to $168 billion today. One key take is that total volume is still at its highest levels since the 2017 bull run, currently almost $60 billion traded per day.
According to TradingView Bitcoin dropped to a weekly low of $4,940 a few hours ago before making a slight recovery back to just below $5,000. BTC RSI on the one day chart has now dropped below 70 so the selloff could decelerate a little. The next few hours will be crucial in determining whether this is just a minor pullback or a major correction which could be the catalyst for the final capitulation.
Image from Shutterstock
 
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Bitcoin Miners Capitulated in Dec 2018 and it Could Signal the End of Bear Market

The biggest discussion point around Bitcoin currently, is whether or not the first-ever cryptocurrency has bottomed or not, and if the bear market will soon be ending or if a lot more pain is ahead for crypto investors.
While many crypto traders and analysts are feverishly reviewing price charts and other important indicators searching for a sign, one particular analyst suggests looking at Bitcoin mining difficulty levels and potential capitulation by crypto miners as the signal the bear market has ended.
Bear Market Grand Finale: Break of $6K Caused Miners to Capitulate
Like any good fireworks display, the grand finale is a spectacle worth waiting for. As was the case throughout the crypto bear market, where powerful price swings over the course of 2018 ended with an explosive move below critical support and into the current trading range Bitcoin price is currently in.
The move below $6K was exceptionally violent due to a large number of stop loss orders being placed directly below the seemingly unbreakable support level. Buyers and bulls felt confident that the price would hold, but prepared for the worst by placing stop orders just below this level.
Related Reading | Peter Brandt Calls For 80%+ Bitcoin Price Decline Over A Year Ago With Chilling Accuracy 
When the worst-case scenario became a reality, the stop orders executed further propelling the price per BTC downward. But it wasn’t just investors, hedge funds, and other bulls that capitulated during the violent move.
Bitcoin miners were also forced to sell off their holdings or risk having the price per BTC fall too low and remove any chance for maintaining profitability. The fallout experienced by Bitcoin miners may have signaled the end of the crypto bear market of 2018 and 2019, according to one crypto analyst.

ICYMI: the biggest #bitcoin sellers, miners, have already capitulated in Nov/Dec 2018. Miners have switched off old mining hardware because of low prices and difficulty has adjusted downwards. In 2011 and 2015 downward difficulty adjustment signaled the end of the bear market .. pic.twitter.com/yOZL26aqYC
— planB (@100trillionUSD) March 3, 2019

According to Plan B, Bitcoin miners, the “biggest Bitcoin sellers,” have “already capitulated.” He further explains that due to the price being so low compared to the cost of mining a BTC, miners have “switched off old mining hardware” and “difficulty has adjusted downwards.”
Most chartists look to past Bitcoin bubbles to get an idea of how the aftermath of the most recent bubble pop may play out. Rather than look at the MACD, RSI, or other price-related statistics, Plan B’s chart depicts spikes downward in BTC mining difficult adjustments. When comparing the most recent capitulation event against previous bear market bottoms, the downward movement in this key metric could be the signal everyone is looking for that suggests the current bear market bottom is in.
Halving: More Evidence That the Bear Market Tides Are Turning for Bitcoin
Data shows that Bitcoin miners are clearly tied to Bitcoin price in a variety of ways. Not only could miner capitulation signal the bear market has ended, but the block reward miners receive could be the key to unlocking the next bull run.
Another chart shared by Plan B shows in different shades of color the proximity to Bitcoin’s “halving” date. The closer price gets to this halving date, the higher the price per BTC begins to trend upward.

#bitcoin chart update: 14 months to halving. Note that 2011 bottom was at 12 months, and 2015 bottom at 10 months before halving .. pic.twitter.com/Vxp41PlX4J
— planB (@100trillionUSD) March 3, 2019

According to the chart, the 2011 bear market bottom was at 12 months out from halving, and in 2015 the bottom was 10 months away from halving. When comparing the amount of time in proximity to past bear and bull cycles, Bitcoin may be anywhere from 2- to 4-months away from slowly returning to a bull market.
Related Reading | Poll Reveals Majority of Crypto Investors See Bitcoin Price at $100,000 to Millions Long-Term 
Each halving reduces the BTC reward miners receive for validating each new block. In the coming halving, the 12.5 BTC reward will be cut in half to 6.25 BTC. The lowered Bitcoin supply stream flowing into miner’s wallets helps to reduce sell pressure on the market, and demand eventually takes over supply and the price grows exponentially. When this begins to happen again, FOMO should return to the market in a massive way, potentially taking Bitcoin to $100,000 to “millions” per BTC, investors believe.
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