Coinbase leads Bitcoin-USD trading volumes; Binance dominates BTC-USDT trading charts

The importance of exchanges is significant in the industry. Without the presence of these crypto-institutions, the distribution of assets would not be possible. However, the high concentration of any digital currency on a single exchange calls for potential risk which could surface in an event of a hack or cyber-theft. A recent report released by […]
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Source: AMB Crypto

Bitcoin Stats Fall as BTC Drops Under $10,000: Is a Drop Lower Coming?

On Wednesday, Bitcoin (BTC) continued to weaken, falling to a weekly low of $9,600 as buyers failed to step up to the plate. As of the time of writing this, the cryptocurrency trades at $9,750, still over 5% higher than the monthly low of $9,150.
Related Reading: Analysts Believe Bitcoin is on The Path to $7,600 As 2018 Bear Market Fractal Continues to Unfold
While some have taken this price action optimistically, claiming that it is only a matter of time before Bitcoin resumes its crusade to proverbially slay the bears, fundamentals and technicals suggest BTC may have further to stumble.
Bitcoin Fundamentals on Shaky Ground
When Bitcoin started to rally in early-April, activity on the asset’s blockchain began to understandably surge, as investors began to speculate with and use BTC once again.
Active addresses and daily confirmed transactions spiked. The daily value of BTC transactions began to trend higher, entering the billions on some days. And most notably, hash rate effectively mooned to fresh all-time highs week-over-week — fortifying BTC as the most secure blockchain network, not to mention the world’s most powerful supercomputer.
However, since Bitcoin has paused after tapping $14,000 just one month ago, network activity has hit a clear roadblock. As CoinMetrics’ Nic Carter points out, “the numbers are going down”. And by “the numbers”, of course, the crypto analytics specialist is referring to the network fundamentals.

I regret to inform you that the numbers are going down pic.twitter.com/ceQ7yHABpO
— nic carter (@nic__carter) July 23, 2019

Although the declines are nothing to write home about, they’re notable. Per the firm’s data from last week and this week, the number of transactions is down 4%, the blockchain’s hash rate has stagnated,  the U.S. Dollar value of transactions is down 24%, and the count of active addresses has shed 6%.
Interestingly, the strong decline in network use is not confined to just Bitcoin. In fact, CoinMetrics observed a similar, often more dramatic trend for Ethereum, XRP, and Litecoin — suggesting that for the time being, the rally is on the backburner.
Timothy Peterson, a cryptocurrency investor and analyst, has noticed these diminishing fundamentals too. He recently wrote that this is the first “BTC price stall” in this cycle that has been accompanied by a declining number of active addresses, implying fewer users are actively using Bitcoin for its intended purpose.

Unlike past recent $BTC price stalls, this one is accompanied by a decline in fundamentals. pic.twitter.com/85Vb4G6tQk
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredcrypto) July 23, 2019

Models Predict a Further BTC Price Decline
The decline active address count isn’t exactly a negative price catalyst per se. But, as previously reported by NewsBTC, Peterson’s model, which relates the actual value and “fair” value of BTC to the number of active addresses, suggests Bitcoin has room to fall.
In fact, last week, he suggested that his model pins Bitcoin’s current fair valuation to $8,000, which is just around 20% lower than current levels. Of course, models aren’t 100% accurate, but should the model hold up, BTC may at least try and approach that price point in the coming days and weeks.
That’s not the only worrying sign. As Dave the Wave, a prominent analyst, recently remarked, the “mini-parabola” that supported BTC from $4,200 to $14,000 has “near definitively” been violated.
With this, Dave believes that Bitcoin will begin to reapproach its long-term trend line, which is a move that the trader expects will put BTC back on a path of decreasing volatility and price discovery.

The 'mini-parabola' near definitively broken its trend…. pic.twitter.com/bVbgRzLZzL
— dave the wave (@davthewave) July 24, 2019

Featured Image from Shutterstock
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Crypto Analytics Firm: Single Strategic Actor Responsible for Bitcoin Price Surge

The Bitcoin rally heard ‘round the world that began on April 2, 2019 painted the first higher high on Bitcoin price charts since the price of the leading cryptocurrency by market cap reached its all-time high back in December 2017. The powerful surge many believe could have signaled the end of the bear market and confirmed that a new uptrend has begun.
The over $1,000 rally may have also been the work of a single, calculated and strategic actor, who may have precisely executed a plan that drove the price up as much as possible.
CoinMetrics: Committed Actor Executed Trades At Key Times to Maximize Price Impact
The massive green candle that occurred on Bitcoin price charts on April 2 had everyone talking, from brokers, to bankers, and everyone in between. The powerfully bullish movement may have been the final blow to bears that signaled the end of the crypto winter that’s plagued the asset class throughout 2018 and 2019 thus up until now.
Related Reading | Crypto Analyst: Bitcoin Price Chart Shows Textbook Bump and Run Reversal Bottom 
The move, according to crypto research firm CoinMetrics, was orchestrated across multiple exchanges, at very specific times where liquidity is the lowest, in order to “maximize price impact while trading,” the firm said. More interesting is their theory that the entire thing was executed by one, single “committed actor.”

Our theory is that a single committed actor went long and traded in a manner that maximized price impact. The movement in price started at 04:30 UTC time, the point in the day where global liquidity is at a minimum.
— CoinMetrics.io (@coinmetrics) April 17, 2019

 
CoinMetrics reveals that the price movement started at approximately at 04:30 UTC time, which the firm says it the “point in the day where global liquidity is at a minimum.”

“Although this cannot be known for sure, such trades would have been designed to trigger stop losses and force a short squeeze through liquidations of margin positions and short futures positions,” they added.

The large price movement on April 2, 2019 occurred during the window of lowest global liquidity. It began at 04:30 UTC and lasted until 05:30 UTC. This time may have been deliberately chosen so that a committed actor could maximize price impact when trading. pic.twitter.com/vktxpGBwlQ
— CoinMetrics.io (@coinmetrics) April 17, 2019

The entire move lasted about one hour, ending at about 05:30 UTC. CoinMetrics further suggests that the time was “deliberately chosen” in order to create the most price movement possible in the shortest amount of time, maximizing “price impact.”

Here's a closer look at our three exchanges of interest pic.twitter.com/yFgxBG2EEM
— CoinMetrics.io (@coinmetrics) April 17, 2019

While conflicting reports across the web from various experts have suggested the move originated across three exchanges, Coinbase, Kraken, and Bitstamp, CoinMetrics instead claims the move began at HitBTC where roughly 500,000 Tether were traded for Bitcoin, then was followed by simultaneous buy orders executing on Coinbase and Bitfinex.
Related Reading | Bitcoin and Ethereum Trading Volume Reaches Crypto Bull Run Peak Levels
Other theories crypto analysts have offered have pointed to mistaken programmatic buying following an elaborate April fools prank. Bots did appear to influence the move, but only because the initial actor planned it that way, and took out stop loss orders that further caused a cascading effect, sending the price higher and higher. As the whale had planned, the trades had a significant impact – enough to potentially end the bear market and ignite a new crypto bull run.
Featured image from Shutterstock
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