Eerily Accurate Fractal Suggests Bitcoin (BTC) Price to Fall 25%

While Bitcoin’s price seemingly moves without rhyme or reason — collapsing by dozens of percent and embarking on face-melting rallies on a whim — the cryptocurrency market is filled to the brim with fractals.
Related Reading: Blockchain and Crypto: Binance CEO Has High Hopes for the Future
A brief aside: A fractal, in the context of technical analysis and financial markets anyway, is when an asset’s price action is seen during a different time. This form of analysis isn’t that popular, but it has proven to be somewhat valuable in analyzing Bitcoin.
One eerily accurate fractal suggests that the recent bout of pain that the crypto market has seen will continue. In fact, it suggests that the price of BTC will fall by 25% in the coming weeks — then return to where it is trading at now by the start of next year.
Bitcoin Ready to Fall by 25%
For the past few months, popular crypto trader NebraskanGooner has been tracking a fractal of the leading cryptocurrency. Bitcoin has been tracing this fractal, whose origin is seemingly the bull run and subsequent bear market of 2014/2015, “almost [perfectly] since I started watching it in September.”
Indeed, as can be seen below, BTC’s recent price action, including the 42% jump seen late last month, line up with the fractal. Should the fractal continue to hold its water, Bitcoin will dip to the $6,700 level by the end of the year, representing a 25% drop from the current price of $8,500.

According to this fractal:
1. Dip to $8,250 area.
2. Bounce to $8,600 area.
3. Dip to $6,700 area.
I'm not trading based off this fractal but it's been following along almost exactly since I started watching it in September.
— NebraskanGooner (@nebraskangooner) November 15, 2019

The fractal isn’t the only sign that implies Bitcoin has further to fall. Per previous reports from NewsBTC, the Hash Ribbons — an indicator tracking the health of Bitcoin’s hash rate — has just seen a bearish crossover. While this may not mean much in and of itself, the bearish crossover of the Ribbons was last seen “just before Bitcoin broke down from $6,000 in November 2018… TL;DR this is a bearish signal.”
To better illustrate the importance of miners capitulating, here’s a chart from industry podcaster and Bitcoin bull Preston Pysh. As Pysh’s chart below clearly depicts, the mining capitulation was seemingly what catalyzed the now-infamous crash from $6,000 to $3,000 in late-2018.

Potential miner capitulation at a hash rate cross.Great chart by @caprioleio. #Bitcoin
— Preston Pysh (@PrestonPysh) November 14, 2019

History repeating would see Bitcoin tumble 50% in the coming six weeks to find a bottom, especially as miners start to pull their machines from active operation and start to sell their stashes to keep the lights on.
Also, the Bitcoin network’s metrics are harrowing. Cryptocurrency analytics startup Bytetree noted that “Bitcoin Network struggling to retain short term volumes, dropping back to 12 Wks average of $2Bn per day.” They went on to state that their proprietary Market Health Signal remains in “bear mode”:
“Long term transaction volumes are steadily declining, velocity remains below the critical 600% level and short term NVT continues to signal caution.”
Related Reading: Time to Pay Attention: Bitcoin Nears Major Confluence Level as Bulls Fight Back
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Fractal: Bitcoin Price to Surge Back Above $10,000 in Coming Weeks

While Bitcoin’s price seemingly moves without rhyme or reason — collapsing by dozens of percent and embarking on face-melting rallies on a whim — the cryptocurrency market is filled to the brim with fractals.
A brief aside: A fractal, in the context of technical analysis and financial markets anyway, is when an asset’s price action is seen during a different time. This form of analysis isn’t that popular, but it has proven to be somewhat valuable in analyzing Bitcoin.
One fractal popularized by a well-known individual on Crypto Twitter suggests that BTC is ready to bound even higher in the coming weeks. In fact, the fractal suggests that it will only be a few weeks before Bitcoin retakes $10,000, then continues higher from there.
Related Reading: Institutions Accrue Bitcoin Long Positions as Price Looks to Break Past $9,300
Bitcoin Fractal Implies $10,000 Inbound
Recently, popular crypto commentator Starbust recently posted the chart below, depicting Bitcoin’s price action in mid-2017 — the middle phase of the last bull market. During the highlighted period, Bitcoin had found a local top at $3,000, retreated in a descending triangle, capitulated as low as $1,900, then shot higher in a massive spike to the upside, creating a bull flag.

That’s cool and all, but where does the fractal come in? You might be asking. Well, Starbust also posted this image, which shows Bitcoin’s price action from the peak in June to now. This period also saw BTC find a local top, retreat in a descending triangle, capitulate, then surge out of that capitulatory bottom to establish a bull flag.
Bitcoin playing out this fractal in full will see it rally to the upside to retake $10,000 and beyond in the coming weeks.

Related Reading: Crypto Market to Form Golden Cross as Bitcoin Gains Momentum Above $9k
Does This Have Credence?
Fractals alone, however, aren’t good enough to determine Bitcoin’s future price action. But there is a confluence of technical signals implying that strength is building for the leading cryptocurrency.
Trader Smokey recently argued that it makes no sense that traders have a strong bearish bias here. While he did admit that Bitcoin has yet to break above a trendline resistance and the weekly horizontal resistance of $9,600, he noted that BTC has decisively reclaimed $9,111 — a level which has been essential for the cryptocurrency since May.
What’s more, the buying volume on the reclamation of this key support was higher than it was on the breakdown, implying that bulls are attempting to assert control over the market.
Also, a trader going by HornHairs has noted that he likes the chances Bitcoin hits $14,000 before $7,000, highlighting how the cryptocurrency held above the one-month bullish breaker, the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement of the entire cycle, the Point of Control as defined by the volume profile, and the yearly pivot point.
Related Reading: Bakkt Bitcoin Futures See Huge Week: Growing Institutional Interest
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Is Bitcoin Becoming A Leading Indicator For Gold?

Throughout 2019, Bitcoin and gold became highly correlated, rising and falling in value at or around the same time, and further fueling the Bitcoin as a safe haven narrative.
Even now, the two assets are showing similarities in their price charts that suggests they are still correlated in some way, and gold could soon be following Bitcoin and making a “deep cycle low,” much like the leading crypto by market cap did last month.
Is The Precious Metal Ready To Set a Cycle Low in December?
As tensions between the US and China were heating up and fears of a looming recession mounted, 2019 has thus far been the year of the safe haven asset – namely, the precious metal gold and its digital gold counterpart, Bitcoin.
Related Reading | Bitcoin Could Follow Gold Fractal With 44% Drop to Under $7,000
The two assets rose and fell hand-in-hand as investors fled stocks and other traditional investments. Eventually, though, just as Bakkt launched in late September, Bitcoin diverged and dropped over $2,000 in less than 72 hours, erasing over 20% of its 2019 rally.
With the assets showing such similar performance, could Bitcoin somehow be a leading indicator for gold? Just before Bitcoin broke down, it had been consolidating at the top of its rally and trading inside a triangle pattern before its big fall.

Gold is very cyclical and is due a deep cycle low in Dec. working towards that.
— Bob Loukas (@BobLoukas) October 13, 2019

According to gold charts, the precious metal is trading inside a very similar pattern and could be at risk for a deeper drop ahead.
Career trader and investor Bob Loukas backs up the theory, suggesting that gold is ready for a correction much like Bitcoin’s, and could put in a “cycle low” in December.
Investors Seeking Safe Haven Assets Driving Both Bitcoin and Gold
Although Bitcoin may appear to be acting as a leading indicator for gold currently – given the shape of the pattern gold is now trading in looking eerily similar to the formation Bitcoin just broke down from – the leading crypto by market cap has been following a fractal from gold’s price charts.
Even Bitcoin’s recent triangle pattern and drop were first seen on gold price charts, and if the fractal continues to be followed, it suggests a very long, drawn-out consolidation phase where Bitcoin trades mostly sideways – the epitome of max pain for those accustomed to the wild price swings and volatility in crypto markets.
Related Reading | Gold Fractal Predicted Bitcoin Distribution, Up Next Is Two Years of Sideways 
The truth is, neither asset is likely to be following or leading the other, but due to their like-attributes they behave similarly. Markets and price fluctuations are driven by the emotional state of investors. And with each asset being attractive to the same sub-set of investors, the emotions driving each market are bound to be similar as well.
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Bitcoin Price Continues to Track Bullish $3,200 Bottom Fractal

When asked about the drawbacks of Bitcoin, many people cite the cryptocurrency market’s immense volatility — multiple days a year, BTC and its ilk have 10%+ days.
Case in point, the Bitcoin price tumbled off a cliff in late September, falling from the lofty price point of $10,100 to $7,700 in a week’s time. This move, as made evident by over $500 million in BitMEX long position liquidations in an hour, caught many investors were their pants down.
Related Reading: Does Crypto Need a Bitcoin ETF? CNBC Analyst Says Maybe Not
But Bitcoin’s price action in this scenario may not be as random as it seems. In fact, some have argued that the chart structure formed after the precipitous drop shows that bears are running out of steam. And quick.
Bitcoin Bottoming Fractal Gains Credence
If you’ve perused Crypto Twitter at all over the past week or two, you likely would have noticed the incessant mentions of a Bitcoin price fractal.
(A fractal, in the context of financial assets and their respective charts, is a certain historical chart formation/price action repeating on a smaller scale at a different time or for a different asset.)
Their fractal thesis, as hinted at earlier, is that Bitcoin’s 20% drop seen a few weeks ago is structurally similar to November’s dramatic drop from $6,000 to $3,000.
Related Reading: Could Bitcoin Collapse By 25% to $6,000? GBTC Premium Implies So
While some have laughed off the similarities of the movements as pure coincidence and mental gymnastics, the fractal has continued to gain traction.
Smartcontracter, a popular Twitter analyst, recently posted the chart below. As can be seen, the price action seen over the past few weeks and back during the capitulation phase of the last bear market are effectively identical. What’s more, the moving averages and trend lines on the charts are in similar formations and territories.

As Smartcontracter explained: “I really feel we have lived and breathed this before. When you compare the 2 scenarios to scale, even all the moving averages are in the same places.”
That’s far from the end of it. Back in December 2018, analysts were mentioning harrowing price targets, eyeing $2,000 (or even low). Now, analysts are calling for moves down to $5,000 or even lower — again, a sign that a fractal is playing out in the current.
Should this fractal play out in full, Bitcoin will rocket back towards $10,000 by the end of this month.
Others have further corroborated this analysis. Truenomic recently drew even more apparent parallels between the current Bitcoin price action and what took place at the end of the bear market. Referencing the charts below, he wrote:
“In addition to the fact that bitcoin moves in cycles, many movements on the chart are repeated on completely different time frames, because these are ordinary patterns. I have gained confidence in the similarity of these two situations, so at the moment I’m bullish.”

$BTC: In addition to the fact that bitcoin moves in cycles, many movements on the chart are repeated on completely different time frames, because these are ordinary patterns. I have gained confidence in the similarity of these two situations, so at the moment I'm bullish.
— Nik Jaremczuk (@truenomic) October 12, 2019

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Crypto Analyst: Bitcoin Continues To Follow Bear Market Bottom Fractal

After Bitcoin price broke down from its multi-month triangle formation, the entire crypto market is watching, waiting, and wondering where the bottom of the current downtrend is.
But according to a fractal that appears shockingly similar to Bitcoin’s bear market bottom, the crypto asset has already bottomed and is about to explode back up to retest – and potentially break above – former highs.
Bitcoin Bear Market Fractal Is Too Compelling To Ignore
Fractals are among the most contested chart patterns of the crypto analyst community. Some believe that fractals can be like roadmaps for predicting price movements in assets like Bitcoin and other crypto assets, while others think that they’re not only worthless, but adhering to them can cloud judgment, cause bias to occur, and lead to poor trading results.
Related Reading | Bitcoin Price Fractal Suggests Repeat of September Drop, Is $7K Next? 
However, oftentimes, these fractals can be so compelling by comparison to past price movements, they become difficult to ignore. Such is the case with the current price action playing out in Bitcoin markets following the deep September drop.
After Bitcoin’s triangle broke down, it resulted in a powerful $2,000 drop to from $10,000 to $8,000, and leading crypto asset by market cap has struggled to even make an attempt at getting back over $9,000 so far. But if this fractal plays out not only will $9,000 be broken, but $10,000 will be reclaimed, and Bitcoin will go on to set a new all-time high.
The idea is all based on a fractal that matches up almost perfectly with Bitcoin’s bear market bottom. According to a crypto analyst, the similarities are starting to “get weird” they’re so chillingly accurate.

It's pretty crazy.
$10k $BTC next week?
— John Smith (@johnsmith3264) October 11, 2019

According to the fractal, the rejection overnight last night that sent Bitcoin price from $8,800 to $8,300 in minutes, mimics the rejection at $4,100 midway through March 2019 – just a couple weeks before Bitcoin broke up out of that trading range and went on a seemingly unstoppable parabolic rally, and generated over 350% ROI for investors who bought the bottom.
Could $10,000 Level Be Reclaimed As Early As Next Week?
Other analysts chimed in on the conversation and added that if the previous lows aren’t broken, Bitcoin price could retest $10,000 as soon as next week. If Bitcoin price can reclaim $10,000 so quickly after a drop, the market will likely view that as extremely bullish, and could result in the first-ever crypto asset continuing on what most believed to be its next bull run.
Related Reading | NVT: Top and Bottom Indicator Signals Time To Buy Bitcoin 
After Bitcoin reclaims $10,000, it will still need to also take back price levels at $11,000, $12,000, $13,000, and break the local high of $14,000 to put an attempt of the previous all-time high of $20,000 on the table.
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Fractal: Bitcoin Price Likely to Hit $7,500 Before Rally to New Highs

Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market have been crushed by bears. According to Coin360, the BTC price is trading at $8,500, 12% lower than the day prior.
While the selling pressure has just begun, leaving much left uncertain in the charts, analysts are convinced that Bitcoin will only see more pain in the coming days. You see, BTC is now sitting under an array of prominent technical supports — the descending triangle bottom, 21-week moving average, and $9,000 horizontal just to name a few.
Related Reading: Crypto Twitter Divided Over Bakkt; 50% Expect the Bitcoin Futures to “Flop”
But, one fractal from an analyst on TradingView is showing that this flash crash won’t cause lasting effects on Bitcoin’s market structure. In fact, it predicts that the cryptocurrency market may soon resume its long-term march to new all-time highs.
Bitcoin Price May Soon Recover
Tuesday was an absolutely jaw-dropping day for the cryptocurrency market. Over $550 million worth of Bitcoin long positions were liquidated on BitMEX as the cryptocurrency market cratered in the first volatile trading session in weeks.
According to a fractal analysis — a way of using previous bouts of price action to try and forecast Bitcoin’s future movements — published by CryptoBullet on September 20th, this volatility will continue. But, they suggest that this volatility may be in favor of bulls.
Related Reading: Bitcoin Need Accentuated as Negative-Yielding Debt Hits $17 Trillion
CryptoBullet noted that in 2017, Bitcoin, during the early stages of the previous bull run, found itself in a descending triangle that eventually broke down in a spectacular fashion. What’s crazy is that BTC started rallying as fast it plummeted just a few days later, eventually entering back into the triangle, then surging to new all-time highs.

Finally some common sense featured on the first page of Trading View. I like this idea.
— The Crypto Monk (@thecryptomonk) September 22, 2019

What we saw over recent months and on Tuesday seems to be an eerie reenactment of this chart formation from mid-2017, but with Bitcoin at a different price and the with fundamental backdrop being arguably even more bullish.
The fractal, should it play it out in full, implies that by the end of this year, the Bitcoin price should be back on its way to fresh all-time highs.
Another analyst has corroborated this fractal and sentiment. Paris-based cryptocurrency trader Marvin Chebbi issued his own message on the fractal, seemingly agreeing with the idea proposed by CryptoBullet. In it, Chebbi referencing the same market event, which saw BTC lose the support of a descending triangle in 2017 to only break to fresh all-time highs just weeks later.
Chebbi, referencing the fractal, wrote:
“A break down of the descending triangle doesn’t necessarily mean the end of the bull market. We had a similar price action in June ’17 with some sort of descending triangle formation (lower highs+equal lows) that broke down, found support a bit lower, [then recovered.]”
Not in Clear Waters Just Yet
While this fractal likely has bulls over the moon, so to speak, Bitcoin’s chart is far from bullish. Prominent analyst Josh Rager suggested in a tweet of his own that Bitcoin could easily “head down to the low $7ks” should it fail to break above the current resistance of $8,800.

If Bitcoin fails to break above the current level, we'll get another retest of the support below – which has bounced once and could hold
But if this isn't a bear trap I do see price heading down to low $7ks
Lots of buyer are waiting between $6180 & $6500
— Josh Rager (@Josh_Rager) September 25, 2019

The technicals back further losses. While the one-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flashing “oversold”, the one-day MACD still has copious room on the downside to head lower.
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Fractal Pattern Analysis Indicates Bitcoin Could Fall to $2,500 Before Recovery

Chart and pattern analysis has been widely used to try to predict when Bitcoin and crypto markets will hit the bottom. A huge range of technical indicators combined with historical snapshots are put to work in order to tell us when the optimum time to get back in is. The latest price prediction tool is a fractal which is when a pattern repeats itself on a smaller scale.
Fractals can be seen in all forms of nature and are repeated in financial markets. Mathematical patterns and an element of chaos theory indicate that a random cyclical action will produce a fractal. A recent Forbes piece has applied this pattern to Bitcoin charts stating that fractal patterns tend to repeat at different scales showing nested repeated versions of the same chart pattern.
Looking back at the past year or two on Bitcoin charts are not pretty but there are some similarities in the patterns. The major dump of 80% during 2018 has been repeated by another dump which is 25% of the size of the first. This is a classic example of a fractal.
Chart from
Using this to predict further prices, a 25% fractal of the second crash would look like this:
Chart from
Each reiteration of the original pattern is 25% smaller as the losses decrease and the bottom nears. Using this to predict where that would be puts Bitcoin at around $2,500 within the next two months. Author Clem Chambers, who is the CEO of stocks and investment website ADVFN, stated that “a trading thesis is just a crude map to act as guide” before adding “predictions should only ever be used as pathways to pivot on.”
Analysts Agree: Bitcoin to Fall Further
Predictions are all we have to go on at the moment but this fractal hypothesis does line up with a number of other analysts who have arrived at similar bottom figures using different techniques. Prominent technical analyst, Murad Mahmudov, has predicted that the pain will go even deeper than $2,500 with a final bottom of $1,800 by the end of Q2 this year.
Earlier this month he correctly predicted that Bitcoin would not overcome a huge wall of resistance at $4,000 and would make further declines. Other analysts have also predicted sub-$3,000 bottoms for Bitcoin before reversal. Today BTC is struggling to break resistance at $3,600 so the two figures above are not that far away.
The consensus among technical and theoretical analysts is more short term anguish for Bitcoin. Specific figures aside, they all agree on the sentiment that it will rise up from this bottom as the snow from the crypto winter melts later this year and these losses fade into memory.
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