Bitcoin Could Fall by 20% to Bottom Around $8,000: Network Value Model

Bitcoin (BTC) has been absolutely slammed over the past five days. Since passing above $13,000 for the second time this year on Wednesday, the cryptocurrency has been on a clearly downward-sloping trend.
Related Reading: Crypto Markets Crash $35 Billion as Bitcoin Revisits Four Figures
In fact, the asset has lost around 25% since hitting $13,200, reaching a multi-week low of $9,750 on Monday. Despite the fact that analysts are expecting for bulls to experience some short-term reprieve, indicators suggest a drawn-out move to $8,000 — 20% lower than current levels.
Bitcoin at $8,000, Could it Happen? 
So, what is making analysts suggest that a move to $8,000 could come to fruition?
Firstly, Timothy Peterson, a prominent American crypto fund manager, notes that Bitcoin’s current active account figure suggests that BTC is overvalued. This is an evident reference to the fact that Bitcoin, like other technological phenomenons, can be valued by its number of users, transactions, and other key statistics.

I hate short term price predictions but fundamentals tell me #bitcoin should be at about $8k right now. pic.twitter.com/z8PIU8mCdb
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredcrypto) July 14, 2019

According to Peterson’s model, which takes a 30-day median (as of July 13th) of the number of active accounts on the Bitcoin blockchain, BTC currently has a fair valuation of just above $8,000.
Sure, Bitcoin has deviated from its fundamental value on certain trading days, but as the analyst explained in a different tweet, in the medium to long term, network value should reflect actual value.
Peterson isn’t the only analyst eyeing $8,000. In a tweet issued on Saturday, Josh Rager, a prominent technical analyst and cryptocurrency commentator, looked to this level.

$BTC Weekly Chart
Another drop today, price has multiple long wicks at wkly resistance
Atm, there only sellers beyond this price & could lead to strong pullback
Confluence w/ both on-chain & chart data that could suggest any pullback would likely bottom out at $8k pic.twitter.com/VHP01caJtA
— Josh Rager (@Josh_Rager) July 13, 2019

Rager notes that a “confluence” of chart data and on-chain data suggests that a pullback “would likely bottom out at $8,000”. As he explained in the chart above, $8,000 acted as a key horizontal support and resistance level in the recent rally and 2018’s crash.
What’s more, there is also a CME Bitcoin futures gap around $8,500, which is one of the last gaps waiting to be filled.
And as Alfonso Esparza, senior market analyst at Oanda Corp, recently told Bloomberg: “[Bitcoin] continues to trade lower as comments from President Trump put downward pressure on the cryptocurrency. It could fall further to $8,000, giving back all the gains made in June.”
Ready to Rally Into Year End
While the outlook is currently negative, there are signs that Bitcoin will recover hard into the end of 2019.
Peterson recently laid out a model which plots how BTC’s performance in the first half of any given year relates to the second half’s performance.
Interestingly, the model, which can be defined as the positive slope y = 1.1409x + 0.5151, fits the trend to 90%, implying that it should be fairly accurate.
Related Reading: Refreshed Model: Bitcoin (BTC) to See $100,000 After 2020’s Halving
According to Peterson, Bitcoin gaining 180% year-to-date (effectively the 2019’s first half) implies that it has another 250% (“give or take”) left to run by the end of the year.
A 250% gain from current levels would mean Bitcoin ends the year at $40,000 — practically double BTC’s 2017 all-time high of just around $20,000. According to Peterson, even $50,000 is realistic.
Also, Thomas Lee, the co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, believes that BTC will rally to $20,000 or even $40,000 in the fourth quarter, citing the increased awareness of cryptocurrencies caused by Donald Trump, Libra, monetary policy, and macroeconomic events.
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Clear skies ahead if Bitcoin closes over monthly-ATH of $13,800; bold claim or given?

As the $13,000 mark is left shattered yet again, all eyes now point to the monthly close of Bitcoin. The all-time high for the top cryptocurrency, in 2019, was recorded at the close of June when the price tapped out just above the $13,800 mark. Now, with the market stabilizing around $13,000, BTC dominance soaring […]
The post Clear skies ahead if Bitcoin closes over monthly-ATH of $13,800; bold claim or given? appeared first on AMBCrypto.
Source: AMB Crypto

Bitcoin [BTC] Going Above $7,950 will Start Another Breakout – Analyst

Bitcoin has been in a slight pullback for a few days now and those who have been watching the charts during this time may be confused as to the direction Bitcoin, and indeed the whole market is going next. A cryptocurrency trader known as DonAlt on Twitter has given some light on the market. He said the lead currency will see some light if it manages to rise to $7,950 from the current $7,842 price.
Bitcoin market chart from TradingView
When will this happen?
Bitcoin grew really fast especially in May, rising way above $8,000 and the crypto community expected a move towards $10,000. However, the market started pulling back in what seemed to be a crash, but analysts said was normal. At the time, the cryptocurrency was said to be growing too fast and needed to correct again before rising at a slower pace.
This seems to agree with DonAlt’s position as the cryptocurrency has eventually corrected but its growth has become significantly slower than before. Another analyst Josh Rager says the asset will be consolidating this week and great volatility should be expected on Friday, May 31st. This may eventually lead to a climb to DonAlt’s critical $7,950 price and the long-awaited recovery above $8,000 again.
A long-awaited rise
The initial price rise evidently raised the expectations of the crypto community and many Bitcoin holders cannot wait for the price to go up again. Not only that, altcoins were expected to rise with Bitcoin’s pullback but the current one has held down even the alts. The rise of Bitcoin is currently probably the only hope for the market and the entire space is looking forward to it.
The post Bitcoin [BTC] Going Above $7,950 will Start Another Breakout – Analyst appeared first on Coingape.
Source: CoinGape

Analyst: Inverse Bitcoin Price Chart Points To Bitcoin Reaching “At Least” $6,130

The entire crypto community of traders, analysts, and investors alike are all watching Bitcoin closely, as the digital asset reaches an important inflection point in its life as a financial instrument. As traders seek to predict not only the direction of Bitcoin price, but the price target itself, oftentimes a chart will be turned upside-down to gain an unbiased and unfiltered look at support and resistance levels, as well as any patterns that may be playing out.
One particular analyst has flipped a high-timeframe Bitcoin price chart on its head, hoping to glean additional insight from it. According to the “support” levels, which are actually resistance levels, the trader says Bitcoin “is heading to at least $6,130.”
Analyst: Bitcoin Price Is Headed to $6130, Can’t Convince Me Otherwise
Bitcoin is close to putting the final nail in the bear market coffin, and is potentially entering either an accumulation phase or the beginning stages of a new bull trend. With fear and panic still felt throughout the market, crypto investors are in disbelief.
The gain more confidence, traders take to charts in order to help to determine and predict price movements. Occasionally, more advanced chartists will turn a price chart upside-down to try and remove any existing bias from the new perspective.
Related Reading | Sell in May and Go Away? A Look At Historic Bitcoin Price Performance in May 
Prominent crypto analyst Josh Rager has shared such an inverse chart via Twitter, and on it clearly demonstrates powerful “support” at roughly $6,137. The trader claims that from the looks of it, Bitcoin price is headed to “at least $6,130,” and that it would be hard to convince him otherwise.

$BTC – Inverted Chart to $6k+
On high time-frame, looks like Bitcoin is heading to at least $6130 and hard to convince me otherwise
From there, a pullback to $4100 would set up some nice opportunities pic.twitter.com/THxyYAPbLG
— Josh Rager (@Josh_Rager) May 6, 2019

At that level, the analyst expects Bitcoin to bounce at “support” around $6,000. He further predicts that a pullback to $4,100 – the last level of powerful resistance Bitcoin broke through to spark a massive $1,000 early April rally – is possible if Bitcoin makes a correction before moving up further.
At that level, he says “you know what to do,” suggesting that it is now time to start buying dips, further hinting that a bull run could be beginning.
Both areas on the chart posted by Rager show high volume nodes at each key price level, suggesting that this is where there is much liquidity to be tapped into for traders.
Related Reading | Bitcoin Price Has Gained On Average 77% Post-Consensus, Altcoins 161%
Resistance at $6,000 will be difficult to break through, as Bitcoin bounced off the price level as support multiple times throughout the bear market. It wasn’t until that support broke in November 2018, when Bitcoin fell to its ultimate bear market bottom at $3,150.
Bitcoin is now valued at nearly double in price from its bear market low, causing most of the cryptoshere to consider the bear market over.
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Is The Bottom In? Bitcoin Price (BTC) Has Nearly Doubled Since Bear Market Low

The current price action across the crypto market, especially when it comes to Bitcoin, has both bears and bulls alike in disbelief. Following the longest and among the most painful bear markets yet, both sides have become accustomed to rallies being swatted down the moment any confidence in the market has returned.
But in recent days, shorts have piled on, while the price has only increased. Bears are being taken by surprise as Bitcoin inches closer to the $6,000 resistance level that once played important support during the first half of the bear market. The current Bitcoin price is trading up nearly double from its 2018 low of $3,150 – does such growth suggest the bear market bottom is actually behind us?
Bitcoin Price Has Nearly Doubled Since $3,150 Bear Market Low
Overnight last night, Bitcoin climbed higher to above $5,700 following an early April rally that sent the price of the leading crypto by market cap up by over $1,000 in the course of an hour.
Most traders and analysts had been expecting a pullback due to overbought indicators, bear divs, and the cryptocurrency being overdue for some consolidation after such a powerful upward movement. Fears and uncertainty surrounding Tether and Bitfinex drama had only added to the bearish sentiment.
Related Reading | Sell in May and Go Away? A Look At Historic Bitcoin Price Performance in May 
But regardless of the confusion and disbelief across the market, the rally continues on. Some crypto analysts attribute the buy pressure to investors fleeing the once safe-haven stablecoin Tether, selling the asset into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to send them off of Bitfinex, and away from potential risk.
Whatever the reasoning is for the continued bullish momentum in Bitcoin price charts, it’s becoming more and more probably that the bear market bottom is behind us, and that a new bull market may be in the beginning stages.
If The Bottom Is Behind Us, Most Crypto Investors Missed Buying It
If the bottom of the longest ever Bitcoin bear market is now in the past, most investors missed their chance to buy it.

$BTC – Volume at Recent Market Bottom
Buyers had major hesitation under $3400 as volume at these levels were the lowest at market bottom
Showing that the majority don't catch the bottom typically due to fear or waiting for lower prices to buy pic.twitter.com/w2xiUxIHni
— Josh Rager (@Josh_Rager) May 2, 2019

According to volume analysis below $3,400 in Bitcoin price charts, volume data shows that buyers were hesitant to buy at the extreme lows. Crypto analyst Josh Rager speculates that most traders missed the bottom either due to fear, or because the most bearish traders were waiting for lower prices – lower prices that never materialized.
Related Reading | Bitcoin Price Has Gained On Average 77% Post-Consensus, Altcoins 161%
While there are still a select few calling for sub-$3K prices in Bitcoin, much of the market has shed their bearish bias, and have since started to consider that a new bull market could be around the corner. With a convincing break of $6,000, Bitcoin can achieve 100% gains in a matter of six months following the final bear market bottom – if it is indeed it – which should signal that bull market type gains are returning to the cryptosphere once again.
Featured image from Shutterstock
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Bitcoin Technical Indicator Confirms New Uptrend After 16 Months of Red

Ever since last week’s Bitcoin rally that broke through critical resistance at $4,200, bulls have appeared to be back in charge. What is still unclear at the moment, is if the bottom of the 2018-2019 crypto bear market is in, and the early signs of a new bull run are beginning.
Giving further merit to bulls claiming the bottom is now behind us, one specific Bitcoin technical indicator has turned bullish for the first time in 16 months, which according to many confirms that a new uptrend has begun.
Bitcoin Super Guppy Multiple Moving Average Indicator Flips Bullish
The crypto bear market has been hard fought by bulls, who eventually succumbed to bearish sell pressure in November, causing a break of repeatedly tested support at $6,000. The violent move down took Bitcoin into a new trading range, touched its local bottom, and began a multiple-month accumulation period.
Related Reading | 2019 Crypto Alt Season Kicks Off With Over 20 Altcoins Doubling in Value 
Investors and traders can only know a bottom was indeed the final bottom in hindsight. Until a new bull trend has long been confirmed, the market will continue to wonder if Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may test new lows.
However, one particular technical indicator for Bitcoin has flipped bullish for the first time since the bear market began back in early 2018, following the break of Bitcoin’s parabolic advance to its all-time high price of $20,000 in December 2017.

$BTC SuperGuppy shows confirmed uptrend
I don't always guppy but when I do… it's a thing of beauty watching these EMAs turn blue and green for the first time in 16 months pic.twitter.com/MPUE0zGBNU
— Josh Rager (@Josh_Rager) April 10, 2019

According to crypto analysts, the Bitcoin Super Guppy indicator turning green is confirmation that a new uptrend is here. If this uptrend turns into another full blown bull market is still anyone’s guess, but if bulls follow through with conviction it could revive the FOMO and hype that drove the 2017 crypto bubble.
Guppy, Whales, and Other Big Fish
The indicator, called the “Super Guppy” takes multiple moving averages – both short- and long-term moving averages – and averages them in such a way that can help traders spot changes in trends, breakout confirmations, and other potential profit opportunities. The indicator is named after its creator, Australian trader Daryl Guppy.
Related Reading | Crypto Analyst: Break of Current Bitcoin Resistance Will Commence Bull Run 
Now that the Super Guppy has confirmed a trend reversal, the whales that accumulated Bitcoin during the extremely brief stint in the $3,200 to $4,200 trading range should be looking to mark up the price of their assets sooner than later. The sudden surge in pricing, followed by additional bullish momentum, could cause the bear and bull cycle to occur at a faster pace than previous cycles, resulting in a new all-time high sooner than expected.

Feel cute might delete later $btchttps://t.co/dfVH9p8b5q
— fil₿fil₿ [OBV Maximalist] (@filbfilb) April 10, 2019

Crypto analyst FilbFilb has shared a previous chart created that outlines what a faster cycle might look like, with one scenario bringing Bitcoin to a new all-time high peak coinciding with the next halving in May 2020. The other scenario has Bitcoin peaking again shortly after halving, closer to July 2021.
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Bitcoin Price Plunge Incoming If Bulls Don’t Follow Through With Volume

This week, Bitcoin price rallied from the previous 2019 high of $4,200 to the first higher high of the bear market at over $5,000. While there is much speculation across the crypto community as to what sparked the massive rally, most conclude that the powerful upward movement was the result of one major player buying over 20,000 in BTC across three different exchanges.
Because the market was moved by one large whale, one analyst warns that if buyers don’t step in and follow through with substantial volume, Bitcoin price is at risk for a significant drop.
Recent Bitcoin Price Rally In Danger Of Drop If Buyers Don’t Capitalize
The entire crypto community is in an uproar over the latest Bitcoin rally, as it is the first higher high set since Bitcoin last touched its all-time high price of $20,000 per BTC back in December 2017. Since then, the leading crypto asset has ping-ponged between support and resistance, diminishing the asset’s value down to a 2018 low of $3,150.
Related Reading | Crypto Community Speculates On What Triggered Massive Bitcoin Price Rally
That low, is increasingly looking to be the elusive Bitcoin bear market bottom, which can only can be concluded in hindsight. But this recent rally has taken Bitcoin well out of the previous trading range between $4,200 and $3,200, topping out at around $5,150.
Because the crypto consensus at large is convinced that the entire movement was the result of one whale buying a large amount of BTC, one exceedingly bearish analyst (short-term) who has been calling for Bitcoin to set new lows, warns that a drop is incoming if buyers don’t follow through with volume.

If this was one buyer spiking the price, I want to see follow through with continued volume for Bitcoin
At this time, don't care about total marketcap with the garbage coins included$BTC makes up over 50% the cap
Lack of follow through in the coming weeks mean potential drop pic.twitter.com/WQa5dy5Tid
— Josh Rager (@Josh_Rager) April 2, 2019

Volume in markets is typically an indicator that confirms the strength of a trend. If a massive candle appears with low volume, chances are, the move is a fake out designed to hit stops and trap traders in bad positions. However, it a move up or down is accompanied by substantial trading volume, the direction is typically confirmed to be a legitimate market movement.
Related Reading | From Banks To Funds To Brokers, Everyone Outside of Crypto Is Talking Bitcoin Today
Take the drop from $6,000 into the $3,000 range that occurred back in November 2018 for example, when the bear market really ramped up in severity. The panic-induced plummet through $6,000 and continued bearish trend was confirmed by a significant increase in sell volume following the drop.
The inverse will need to happen following this most recent rally for buyers to confirm there is bullish momentum to support a trend change, and resume a cryptocurrency bull market. During the move, Bitcoin volumes on Coinbase topped over 40,000 BTC, so the trend is already off to a good start. However, it’ll need to continue to remain strong while Bitcoin price consolidates above around the recent higher high, before the market can continue upward with confidence.
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