Bitcoin Traders Eye $5,600 As BTC Suddenly Ticks Higher: Can The Rally Continue?

Over the past few hours, Bitcoin (BTC) and its altcoin brethren have begun to quietly rally. As of the time of writing, BTC is up 3.5% in the past 24 hours, finding itself trading for $5,240 apiece, according to data compiled by Coin Market Cap.
This move isn’t as notable as early-April’s 15% daily gain, which saw retail and institutional trading activity ignite as BTC rallied past two key resistance levels, $4,200 and $4,600. However, the recent influx of buying pressure comes after cryptocurrencies experienced a rapid 10% sell-off during the weekend, ensuring that bears don’t get a chance to follow through.
Related Reading: Bitcoin Beats a Retreat Below $5k, Has The Final Capitulation Started?
If Bitcoin Breaches $5,600, $6,000 May Be In Store
Per a recent chart from Credible Crypto, with Tuesday’s move, BTC is poised to soon break out of a triangle pattern, which has depressed the asset and slowed trading activity over recent days. If the upper bound of the triangle breaks as Credible expects, Bitcoin could rally past its year-to-date high at $5,500, moving to and beyond $5,600 as a local resistance level is broken.

Took a closer look at the $BTC chart after some of my followers mentioned the possibility of this being a triangle. I tend to agree after checking out the charts. This is perfect as it fits in with our Wave 4 count, and it would explain all the 3 legged waves we have been getting pic.twitter.com/eLBMg8vmKu
— Credible Crypto (@CredibleCrypto) April 16, 2019

While a move past notable $5,600 doesn’t seem notable, especially considering that Bitcoin’s monthly high is just $100 below that, analysts argue that a foray above the mid $5,000s will be monumental for bulls. In fact, as a popular trader, The Crypto Dog, depicted in a chart posted hours ago, not only would a rally to $5,600 break a flat top triangle, but it would put BTC in an area of low liquidity.
Any semblance of buying pressure seen in that region could catapult Bitcoin to $6,000. As the analyst writes: “$5,600 is the only thing standing between us and $6,000.”

Haven't been/don't follow $crypto Twitter too closely for $BTC analysis? This chart is a fair summary.$BTC $BTCUSD #Bitcoin $crypto pic.twitter.com/mD3ExNGWeZ
— The Crypto Dog (@TheCryptoDog) April 16, 2019

Charts Looking Bullish
Sure, $5,600 could be rejected, but a multitude of chartists are adamant that from a macro perspective, BTC is still looking hot. As trader B.Biddles remarked, Bitcoin’s one-week chart from August to now impeccably resembles a “bump-and-run reversal bottom” (BARR Bottom) shown in a notable technical analysis book.
If the BARR Bottom trend plays out as the textbook’s author, Thomas Bulkowski, explains, BTC will soon see an “uphill run” that will catapult cryptocurrencies into their next bull run.

$BTC. Literally a textbook BARR bottom. Hint: This means bears are fucked. pic.twitter.com/5ZUMGCXMIt
— B.Biddles (@thalamu_) April 14, 2019

Fundamental factors, too, are giving BTC and other digital assets a green light to head higher. As Cumberland, a crypto-friendly arm of DRW, noted on Twitter, as central banks have delayed interest rate hates, risk assets, like Bitcoin, have rallied. With institutions like the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank looking to continue this trend, this “risk-on” rally could easily continue.

Desk Update: Risk assets (along with $BTC) have rallied dramatically this year, as shown in the chart, while central banks delay interest rate hikes. pic.twitter.com/qyYAyMadn6
— Cumberland (@CumberlandSays) April 16, 2019

Should Declining Crypto Trading Activity Be A Worry?
Analysts are leaning bullish en-masse, but over recent trading sessions, the level of trading activity has begun to wane. In fact, the 24-hour volume registered by Coin Market Cap has fallen to $42 billion, which is nearly half that registered on April 3rd to 7th, the aftermath of April 2nd’s bullish breakout.
It is important to note that this data provider’s figures are widely deemed inflated, but Bitwise’s Bitcoin volume index, which takes only regulated exchanges into account, has accentuated that trading is on the decline.
Should this be a worry for bulls though?
In the eyes of some chartists, yes. But if we take Biddles’ analysis into account, declining volumes could indicate bullishness. Odd, huh. As the Bitcoin trader explains, “declining volume is bullish in this pattern (ascending triangle),” and signals that a rapid move higher is likely in BTC’s cards.

$BTC
Declining volume is bullish in this pattern, per Bulkowski.
"Volume is usually low just before the breakout." pic.twitter.com/UYF76dKJk8
— B.Biddles (@thalamu_) April 16, 2019

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Industry Exec: Bitcoin To Be The “Escape Hatch” In Impending Global Recession

In the eyes of many across the globe, including anti-establishment figures, credited and established economists, and consumers, the macroeconomy could be on the verge of collapse. In fact, in a recent Bloomberg op-ed, Narayana Kocherlakota, the former president of the Federal Reserve’s Minneapolis arm, advised his old employer to prepare for a crisis. But Bitcoin may be a way out — “an escape hatch,” as put by ShapeShift chief executive and crypto entrepreneur Erik Voorhees.

There has never been a global recession since Bitcoin was created. Next time it happens, there is an escape hatch. https://t.co/XmwcCcuSU9
— Erik Voorhees (@ErikVoorhees) April 16, 2019

The Case For A Recession
While the economy seems to be doing better than ever, certain fiscal and economic indicators aren’t looking all too hot. For instance, the U.S. Treasury bond yield curve recently saw a negative spread between the three and ten-year notes, which is a sign that has historically predicted recessions (1970s’ oil crisis, Dotcom, Great Recession).
Debt across the board, especially sovereign debt, is surmounting all-time highs on a daily basis. In fact, since 2008’s fiscal debacle, the nominal value of all forms of debt has increased by dozens of trillions of dollars, as central banks across the globe bolster their balance sheets, firms borrow more to promote their growth, and consumers spend more than ever, all while lenders are seemingly becoming more lenient with each passing day.
According to Trace Mayer, a long-time Bitcoiner and a zealous anti-centralization thinker, society has accumulated $87 trillion more debt as humanity’s relentless lust for growth continues, accentuating that governments and society at large haven’t learned from past mistakes.
The U.S. alone has seen its national debt breach $22 trillion mere weeks ago, up from ~$8 trillion when the recent Recession peaked. In response to this swelling statistic, the Peterson Foundation, an American financial services group that is focused on amending the nation’s economic issues, claimed that the fiscal situation is “not only unsustainable but accelerating.” As Ikigai head Travis Kling recently explained:
“The increasingly erratic U.S. president is yelling at an irresponsible central bank to act even more irresponsibly with its monetary policy, while running a $1 trillion deficit for the second year in a row.”
Related Reading: Economist’s Belief That Stocks Are Overvalued Has Bitcoin Enthusiasts Enthused
The economy’s outlook is so harrowing that Ray Dalio, the co-founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, recently drew eerie parallels between today and the Great Depression. In a comment made at Davos, the world-renowned investor, who has become a market pessimist as of late, explained that from 1929 to 1932, there was a lot of “printing of money, and purchases of financial assets,” much like today.
Even BitMEX’s research division has chimed in on the matter of the case for a recession. As reported by NewsBTC previously, the team of researchers and analysts noted that the current financial system is currently unstable and fragile, backing their claim by drawing attention to the dichotomy between the overall lack of volatility and sudden spikes in the VIX. They noted that this instability has only been underscored by low-interest rates and a tumultuous political climate (think Brexit, Trump/China, and the Yellow Vests), making it all the more likely that a crisis is brewing under the surface.
Why Bitcoin Is The Answer
So what’s a way to opt-out of a crisis?
According to many pundits, that’s Bitcoin, as the asset isn’t centrally controlled, has a deflationary supply issuance schedule, and is a non-correlated asset that exists independently of any traditional system, save for the Internet. As Kling, a Wall Streeter turned anti-establishment thinker, explains, the cryptocurrency’s value proposition as a non-sovereign, hard-capped supply, global, immutable, decentralized, digital money could be just what modern consumers are looking for in a market rife with uncertainty — a way out of this ongoing fiscal experiment that many argue benefits the wealthy before the underprivileged. The Ikigai C-suite head adds that “central banks and governments are proving the profound need” for such a digital asset, not discrediting it.
In other words, if any government takes on heavy debt and defaults, Bitcoin benefits. If hyperinflation makes U.S. dollars nothing more than glorified toilet paper, Bitcoin benefits — you get the point.
With the U.S.’ interest expenses on track to surpass the tax receipts themselves by 2022, meaning that America will be paying more in interest on its debt than the tax it receives, creating a negative, likely never-ending feedback loop, only one option will be left: print, print, print the debt away. And by then, Bitcoin would have likely won.
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Why Bitcoin Isn’t In The Clear Yet, Despite BTC Rally Past $4,600

It would be hard to deny that the past two weeks have been integral for the long-term prospects of Bitcoin (BTC). It staved off collapsing below the long-term trendline, and moved above key resistances, especially the 200-day moving average, with monumental levels of volume to match.
Related Reading: Analysts Convinced Bitcoin Bottom Is Finally In, New Highs Inevitable
While all this seems to signify that a crypto bull rally is on the horizon, this may not exactly be the case. In fact, citing a key trend indicator, a chartist opined that it is a bit too early to be bullish just yet.
Bitcoin Isn’t Home Free Just Yet
Cold Blooded Shiller, a cryptocurrency analyst, recently drew attention to the one-week Guppy, a collection of moving averages that aims to predict trends, resistances, and supports, for Bitcoin. And it wasn’t exactly all too pretty.
While BTC’s 25% rally from $4,150 to $5,450 over the past two weeks allowed the asset to break out of the green band of the Guppy, the top (key resistance/trend reversal level) of the red band was rejected.

Beautiful bearish retest of the weekly $BTC guppy. Why we bullish? pic.twitter.com/AD7rBBgVbb
— Cold Blooded Shiller (@ColdBloodShill) April 13, 2019

In fact, the wick to $5,450, in the eyes of Cold Blooded anyway, was a “beautiful bearish retest” in that it cements that BTC isn’t out of choppy waters just yet. Considering that the red band of the one-week Guppy acted as key support for Bitcoin in 2017’s rally, if BTC fails to break and hold past the red band, it may be that much harder to call for a bull run.
Interestingly, while the weekly Guppy is still depressing BTC, the daily is an entirely different story. As covered by NewsBTC on a previous date, the Super Guppy on Bitcoin’s one-day chart recently flipped bullish for the first time in 16 months, cementing that at a minimum, the medium-term bear trend has been mostly reversed.
Maybe Consolidation Is Inbound
So if Bitcoin isn’t home free just yet, what’s next for the asset and its altcoin brethren?
Per a chart posted by trader SalsaTekila, consolidation and short-term range trading may just be in the cards. He chalks this call up to the fact that right now, BTC is entering the region of a “broken price floor” that has pertained to over one year of price action. As such, it may be very difficult to break out above that level, which sits at $5,800, without a proper catalyst.

$BTC is re-testing a 1 year+ broken price floor. My current best case scenario is a couple weeks of consolidation / chop between 4700$-5500$. pic.twitter.com/TKTZd1wTu9
— SalsaTekila (JUL) (@SalsaTekila) April 14, 2019

Thus, Salsa concluded that in his eyes, the best case scenario would be for BTC to consolidate and chop between $4,700 and $5,500, the respective low and high of the past two weeks’ price action, for a number of weeks. Salsa isn’t alone in his expectation that cryptocurrencies will take a brief chill pill, so to speak.
CryptoHamster, an analyst known for his use of fractals and historical trends, recently claimed that if BTC follows historical precedent, it will more than likely trade around $5,000 for weeks, even months, before the eventual breakout.
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Slowing Macroeconomy Could Be A Boon For Bitcoin & FAANG Stocks: Researchers

Since 2018’s bear market came to life, investors have tried to determine what will revive Bitcoin (BTC) once again. According to industry researcher boutique Delphi Digital, the strength (or lack thereof) of the macroeconomy could be a boon for the cryptocurrency market moving forward, in spite of the fact that many pundits see digital assets as independent of traditional systems.
Bitcoin Could Catch Investors Looking For “Significant Price Appreciation” 
Per an excerpt from the New York-based group’s most recent report, a potential rise in growth investing strategies (throwing money at firms with strong growth upside to maximize capital gains) could aid Bitcoin in the coming months and years. Delphi’s analysts explain that growth-centric investors’ most popular choices include the stocks that consist of FAANG along with other hot Silicon Valley firms.

3/ Given the outlook of slower economic growth and subdued earnings forecasts, the backdrop appears favorable for growth to outperform. If so, #bitcoin may be poised to catch a bid as investors reach for riskier assets with significant price appreciation potential. $BTC pic.twitter.com/6MvZauouty
— Delphi Digital (@Delphi_Digital) April 12, 2019

The reason why this is significant is that in periods of slow economic growth and subdued earnings, which economists are calling for, growth stocks, meaning Bitcoin in turn (correlation), often outperform their peers. Thus, Delphi concluded:
“Given the outlook of slower economic growth and subdued earnings forecasts, the backdrop appears favorable for growth to outperform. If so, bitcoin may be poised to catch a bid as investors reach for riskier assets with significant price appreciation potential.”
Perfect Storm For Bitcoin Is Approaching
Delphi’s talented researchers aren’t the first to have claimed that factors in the macroeconomy could boost Bitcoin over the coming months. As reported by NewsBTC previously, Brendan Bernstein, the founding partner of Tetras Capital, an industry investment firm whose partners seem skeptical of Ethereum, recently laid out why he believes BTC’s long-term prospects are healthy.
He remarked that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision over the past decade to enlist quantitative easing (QE) strategies could aid BTC. Here’s why.
While QE, which is a fiscal policy that sees central banks purchase assets to boost the economy, has arguably been a positive catalyst for cryptocurrencies for the better part of a decade, some fear that the economy might get dicey (asset inflation, fiscal instability, etc.). Anti-establishment figures, presumably like Bernstein and Ikigai’s Travis Kling, are wary that with the overutilization of QE, the economy could be put in a bad place, potentially giving BTC a chance to rally as a non-correlated store of value.
Bernstein continued on the theme that macroeconomic and political factors may give a decentralized, digital currency a chance to outperform by drawing attention to democratic socialism, modern monetary theory, a growing retired yet financially stunted population, and the rapidly swelling amount of U.S. sovereign debt. He claimed that all this, coupled with QE, is why there is a “perfect storm for BTC right now.”
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Analysts Convinced Bitcoin Bottom Is Finally In, New Highs Inevitable

Bottom this, bottom that. At long last, prominent crypto analysts across the board are convinced that Bitcoin (BTC) has finally bottomed in this cycle, and will not see fresh lows for years, if at all.
While this may sound like wanton wishless thinking, a strong case has been made for this theory. In fact, the “bottom is in” theory has garnered so much traction that some of the industry’s biggest names have subscribed.
Related Reading: Prominent Analyst: Bitcoin (BTC) is Likely to Surge to 400k, Does This Mean the Bottom is in?
Bitcoin Bottom Might Just Be In
A well-followed trader going by “Mr. TA” on Twitter, the founder of a cryptocurrency education group, recently explained why he believes that Bitcoin has already put in its lows for this cycle.
He explains that historically, BTC has found a price bottom about one year out from its quad-annual block reward reductions — what many refer to as “halvings” or “halvenings.” It is important to know that this is a known fact, as made apparent by an array of NewsBTC’s previous reports on the matter.

Why I believe the Bitcoin bottom is in – looking at Bitcoin halving events
As you can see, around 1 year before the halving, a bottom forms
A big move up is seen leading to the one year away date, then a drop to form the ultimate bottom, before this price isn't seen again pic.twitter.com/r10PttfWw6
— Mr. TA (@technical_anal) April 10, 2019

What makes Mr. TA’s analysis interesting is that he points out that around 15 months prior to 2015’s halving, there was a strong rally in which Bitcoin showed signs of going parabolic, a short period of stagnation, then a slowdown. Sound familiar? Well, that’s because the same is effectively going on now.
If the current cycle plays out like that seen in 2015, Bitcoin may rally slightly further (potentially to $6,000), stagnate for weeks, before falling back under the $4,000 in a final bearish shakeout. But, in spite of all this, BTC will now establish new lows, meaning that a long-term price floor could be set in stone already.
As aforementioned. Mr. TA isn’t the only one convinced that a bottom is in. Per reports published just days ago, Dave The Wave, a long-term trend chartist, claimed that Bitcoin’s recent push past $5,000 isn’t a sign that parabolic price action is on the horizon. Instead, this uptick signifies that the bottom is in, explaining that now, the chances of a higher high followed by “further higher lows” are practically 100%. For those who missed Technical Analysis 101, this is a simple sign that a bearish trend has bitten the dust.

The significance of the breakout was not new all time highs tomorrow, but a confirmation of the bottom – a higher high, no doubt to be followed by further higher lows. pic.twitter.com/b2vm0xbWZn
— dave the wave (@davthewave) April 8, 2019

Travis Kling echoed this analysis to a tee in a recent Twitter comment. In response to an inquiry from The Crypto Dog, the former Wall Streeter noted that “in the seven weeks leading up to April 1st,” the chances that BTC would retest the low it established in December at $3,150, “diminished significantly.” He added that the price action experienced in April so far, which catapulted BTC to and well past $5,000 and altcoins to fresh year-to-date highs, is “the (effective) nail in the coffin for new lows.” In other words, put short and sweet by Kling, “a retest is now highly unlikely.”
What’s Next For BTC?
Well sure, the bottom is in, but what’s next for BTC in this market? Answers to this pressing question span the entire spectrum of bulls and bears, but by and large, most prominent traders seem to be leaning somewhat bullish. Here’s why, and here’s what they see.
Short-term, traders are extremely bullish. CryptoHamster, a subscriber to fractal analysis and how that applies to cryptocurrency, recently posted the chart below on Twitter, accentuating the similarities between Bitcoin’s price action on Wednesday and that seen last Wednesday. Barring that the trend shifts, Hamster is hinting that BTC could rally to $5,600 in the coming days.

#bitcoin $BTC $BTCUSD pic.twitter.com/Y27jttyyEN
— CryptoHamster (@CryptoHamsterIO) April 11, 2019

Long-term, analysts are also convinced that bears are in their death throes. The Super Guppy, a measure that weighs support and resistance levels to predict trends and their respective reversals, has flipped bullish on BTC’s one-day chart. The last time the Guppy was green was in early-2018, which was when cryptocurrencies began to unwind from 2017’s bubble-esque activity.
But where does this leave Bitcoin for the long haul? As a recent poll revealed, $100,000 and beyond, that’s where. But as to when BTC will reach that quixotic price target, no one is all too sure.
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Chinese Crypto Investors Return Strongly In Bitcoin: Did They Cause BTC Surge?

For much of the history of Bitcoin (BTC), traders from Asia, specifically China and Japan, dominated this embryonic market. China, of course, is the spiritual and actual home of Bitmain, one of the industry’s highest valued startups, and of key crypto asset projects, like NEO and Tron. But, the nation’s bans and restrictions on this market threw many for a loop.
As reported by NewsBTC previously, the Central Bank of China proudly proclaimed its series of stringent regulations, which included bans on foreign crypto exchanges, events, and certain trade publications, a resounding success.
Related Reading: China Banned Everything Bitcoin, Video Games Seem To Be Next
But, somehow, Bitcoin trading interest from Chinese investors has returned. Don’t ask us how, but locals are “FOMOing” in so hard that they’re skirting local regulations to get their hands on BTC. And many sure this influx of buying pressure from our friends across the pond is due to Bitcoin’s rally above $5,000, coupled with the monumental performance of Asian capital markets.
Chinese Investors Catapult Money At Bitcoin
When BTC began to show faint hints of bullish behavior in mid-March, pushing past $4,000 on the back of, well, nothing, investors tried to speculate what exactly was going on. Anton Pagi, a cryptocurrency researcher, revealed that the move was preceded (or caused) an uptick in exchanges known to have played host to a Chinese audience. To further illustrate his point, Pagi draws attention to a chart from data analytics provider CoinLib, which accentuated that there was a larger than normal influx of Chinese fiat into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Pressure subsided from this subset of investors in the days that followed the aforementioned move, however. But now, with Bitcoin’s recent foray above $5,000, Chinese investors seem to be back in full force. In fact, over the course of the past week, the search term “Bitcoin” has skyrocketed to the top of Baidu’s trending searches, showing that locals sure are interested.
Per a recent tweet from CnLedger, a local industry insider, over-the-counter (OTC) desks that cater to an Asian audience have begun to show signs of an influx of buy-side orders.

1/ Chinese markets reveal strong buys. OTC (Over-The-Counter) trades, the almost only way to buy bitcoin with fiat in China, showing considerable $ premium (1 USDT = 7 CNY) over the official rate of 1 USD = 6.7 CNY. pic.twitter.com/bd0n0DGFVU
— cnLedger (@cnLedger) April 8, 2019

Huobi’s and OkEX’s individual OTC portals, for instance, are purportedly registering trades of Chinese Yuan-to-Tether (USDT) at a rate of 7.0, rather than the market rate of 6.7 —  a casual premium of 4.4%.
All this has occurred as bitCNY, a stablecoin pegged to the Chinese Yuan based on the Bitshares protocol, has seen its 24-hour volume move higher by ten times since its lows in February.
While this isn’t a definitive sign that investors in the Asian nation are flocking to purchase Bitcoin en-masse, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) once revealed that Chinese traders have expressed a clear propensity to use stablecoins to bypass governmental firewalls. The outlet’s investigation revealed that a local trader’s common practice was to use VPNs, purchase USDT (or a similar token) through fiat portals, then transacting on foreign, presumably non-KYC-enabled platforms.
What’s The Deal? 
Why is this happening? you may ask. According to trader and analyst Light Crypto, China’s newfangled enamorment with Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies has much to do with macroeconomic factors.
The trader recently explained that with the Hang Seng Index rallying 20% since the end of 2018, Chinese investors are looking to park their gains in other assets, like the non-sovereign Bitcoin. Alternatively, traders, with their strong portfolios in their back market, may be looking to add risk to their portfolio, through cryptocurrencies and other alternative asset classes.

/1 We are witnessing a resurgence in Chinese demand for cryptocurrencies. This trend in the making comes after more than a year of relative quiet, a reminder of the time when Chinese volumes were king. pic.twitter.com/5ZOjD4dxbM
— Light (@LightCrypto) April 8, 2019

Tom Lee, Fundstrat’s in-house crypto permabull, recently touch on this factor, too. In a recent Bloomberg Television segment, the cryptocurrency diehard, who has stopped at nothing to get his bullish point across, remarked that growth in emerging markets, like China, will be a clear tailwind for BTC moving forward.
Did China Push The Crypto Market To The Moon?
This may have led some to ask if China in and of itself was behind the recent uptick. The answer: no, likely not. But, the region’s recent influx of interest in Bitcoin has likely played a positive role in BTC’s day-to-day valuation.
Although many common Joes and Jills have come to the conclusion that OTC trades have no effect on the spot price of Bitcoin, this isn’t the case. BTC sourced through such platforms have an origin, whether it be an exchange, flat-out mining, or other deals. Thus, if there is more buying liquidity on OTC desks (as seen with China as of late), suppliers will pick up as much cryptocurrency as they can, thereby propping up the price or decreasing natural selling pressure from mining operations.
It would be near-impossible to gauge how much BTC and other digital assets are transacted through OTC desks, and what effect its plays on the underlying market, but China’s quiet yet triumphant return to Bitcoin likely isn’t a bad sign for cryptocurrency.
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Could The Influx Of Bitcoin Trading Push Crypto Higher?

After months of proverbial CPR, Bitcoin came back to life early last week in a move that came straight out of left field. On Tuesday morning, BTC suddenly rallied, pushing $4,200, $4,400, and $4,800 in rapid succession. Other crypto assets followed close behind the market leader.
Throughout all this, volumes started to surge, as exchanges across the board, whether fraudulent or otherwise, registered trading activity highs. Some see this uptick, which signals an underlying return of interest in cryptocurrencies, as a clear bullish catalyst.
Bitcoin Volumes Boom
In March, Bitwise Asset Management released a scathing report about the state of Bitcoin markets, claiming that 95% of trading activity could be fake. While many saw this as a bearish sign, the firm’s newfangled statistics have allowed traders and investors to gauge conditions with more accuracy.
Bitwise’s Spot Volume Index, which disregards exchanges speculated to be facilitating/taking part in wash trading, in fact, registered a monumental four-hour volume candle on the day it rallied past $4,200. In fact, the candle, which amounted to 154,726 BTC, was the highest since September 15th, 2017. This influx of buying pressure comes, of course, amid a brutal bear market, in which retail investors have all but bitten the dust.

Largest 4H volume candle on the Bitwise Spot Volume Index…
SINCE September 15'th 2017!
It was the bounce candle after CHINA FUD.#Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/9L4N1Gs9Sz
— Bitcoin 𝕵ack (@BTC_JackSparrow) April 7, 2019

Volumes registered on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)’s Bitcoin futures contract, too, has seen a colossal uptick on the day of the aforementioned rally. According to data from the exchange itself, April 4th’s session saw 22,500 contracts, equivalent to 112,700 (paper) BTC, change hands. This is just under double the previous trading activity record, set on February 19th.

CME Bitcoin futures had a record trading day on April 4, hitting an all-time high volume of over 22.5K contracts (112.7K equivalent bitcoin), surpassing previous record of over 18.3K (64.3K equivalent bitcoin) on February 19. More #Bitcoin futures. $BTC_F https://t.co/kWYK203apA pic.twitter.com/CX5nF8dXyv
— CMEGroup (@CMEGroup) April 5, 2019

These two statistics show that Bitcoin’s recent move, which sparked an influx of mainstream media coverage (both negative and positive), has revived investor interest in this asset class. But can it really be sustained?
Related Reading: CME Bitcoin Futures See Record Volumes, Crucial Signal For Rising Institutional Demand
Bears Still In Control Of Crypto?
While monumental volume readings do pose a potential case for further highs in this rally, some are convinced that bears aren’t done playing with Bitcoin just yet. In fact, a multitude of traders has made it clear that investors would be remiss not to expect BTC to establish a fresh low under $3,000, despite analyses stating otherwise.
Jonathan, a forex and crypto asset trader, recently explained that it would be unfair to assume that the bear market is over. Through the medium of a Twitter post, he seemed to hint that proclaiming a bear trend over is irresponsible.

There's a lot of self-congratulating/circle-jerking that "I"/"we" called the bear-market-over bottom & start of the new bull market. Pretty sure this happened w every $BTC rally since Jan 2018. Most of them made that same call, multiple times, in 2018. Should be the same outcome. pic.twitter.com/wzSzx3Onbc
— Jonathan (@jcho710) April 6, 2019

Jonathan remarks that this same cycle of optimists calling for an end to the bear after a short-term, emotion-inducing spike always ended in disaster, looking to Bitcoin’s inability to not maintain upward price action throughout 2018. Technicals have also not painted the more cheery picture.
Nunya Bizniz recently wrote on Twitter that the last time Bitcoin’s one-week Guppy, a technical indicator that weighs moving averages to predict price trends, looked as it is now, BTC rallied into the top of its range, before falling dramatically. Thus, if history repeats, BTC will move to as high as $5,600 in the coming weeks, prior to a rapid sell-off that brings the asset under $3,000.
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Why Bitcoin Holding $4,950 Readies BTC For A Push To $6,000

Bitcoin (BTC) has continued its bullish assault late into the weekend. After rallying to and past $4,200 on Tuesday, the cryptocurrency continued higher throughout the week, currently sitting at a $5,150 valuation.
While some analysts have been adamant that this is where Bitcoin’s winning streak ends, as what some call “Bloody Monday” approaches, others have made a somewhat convincing case that further highs could be in store.
Related Reading: Analyst: Bitcoin (BTC) May Be Stuck in Accumulation Phase for Several More Months
Bitcoin Push To $6,000 Still In Play
Late last month, NewsBTC reported that Filb Filb, a leading industry researcher, posted two charts in a bid to show that BTC could easily rally to $6,000 by the end of April.
The first was Bitcoin’s price action from July to late-December, but inverted. The second was the asset’s recent price action following December’s downturn, which has been, let’s say, lackluster. Although these two charts may sound nothing alike, Filb depicts eerie similarities both in the structure of moves and the timing, specifically in a bid to show that Bitcoin could see a massive wick to the upside.

Many first cast his call aside, deeming it a mere coincidence that the charts share such similarities. But, with Bitcoin’s recent foray above $5,000, the lines that can be drawn between chart one and two have begun to mount. And as seen below, the structure of the recent move is still resembling that seen following the devastating Bitcoin Cash hard fork.
If this move, which could bring BTC to $6,000, is to play out in full, however, the cryptocurrency trader makes it clear that the Bitcoin price needs to hold above $4,950 in the coming days. If it doesn’t, the inverse fractal pattern is annulled.

Update.
Fascinating to watch the Similarities.
Bulls need to maintain $4950. pic.twitter.com/a5QDxxZLjS
— fil₿fil₿ (@filbfilb) April 6, 2019
Further Crypto Rally Might Not Be Possible
The stage may be set for a further move higher, but some have taken issue with the timing of this ongoing rally. Cryptocurrency advisor Josh Rager recently noted that Bitcoin’s ongoing move, if sustained, would totally destroy the theory that the asset follows set, multi-year trends. Of course, past performance is not indicative of future action, but some are convinced that BTC’s long-term price action can be charted many years in advance.
Another trader going by the moniker “throwaway” also recently made a similar point. He/she drew attention to the fact that Bitcoin has historically followed a logarithmic trendline, depicted in black below, effectively to a tee. But with the recent rally, the asset has moved well away from the “magnet”-esque trendline, meaning that a sell-off may actually be more likely than a rally higher.

The recent breakout if sustained would be one of the largest deviations from long-term trend.
Look to Nov. dump for an example of deviance. That black line is a magnet. @kenoshaking @MustStopMurad @woonomic pic.twitter.com/5RzOmKMJ1s
— throwaway (@throwaway82738) April 6, 2019

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Has The Bitcoin (BTC) Bear Trend Officially Ended?

It isn’t a secret that last week’s price action has some convinced that the year-long crypto bear trend is coming to a head. In fact, Fundstrat’s in-house Bitcoin (BTC) optimist, Tom Lee, recently told Bloomberg that he adamantly believes that the cryptocurrency market can now be classified as a bull market, looking to the 200-day moving average for BTC to back his point.
And interestingly, key technical indicators might agree with this buoyant sentiment.
Related Reading: Notable Bitcoin Bear Flips Bullish, Expects BTC to Go Parabolic in Near-Future
Bitcoin Trend Indicator Flips Green, Upside Could Be In Store
According to analyst Altcoin Pyscho, Guppy, a technical indicator that weighs moving averages to predict price trends, has “flipped green” on the one-day Bitcoin chart on BitMEX.

$BTC
THE GUPPY HAS FLIPPED GREEN
Unless this is a fakeout, which has only happened twice on the bitcoin daily chart, the trend has officially been reversed.
This is where you should start longing every bullish SFP (with stops) pic.twitter.com/aGHoqSl7jT
— Altcoin Psycho (@AltcoinPsycho) April 5, 2019

While there’s a fleeting chance that this shift in the Guppy is a bull trap or “fakeout,” which has purportedly only occurred twice in BTC’s history, Pyscho asserts that the bear trend has likely been reversed. He adds:
“This is where you start longing every bullish swing failure pattern (with stops).”
The popular Twitter pundit is far from the first to have proclaimed an end to bears, accentuating that this subset of traders is likely nearing hibernation.
Earlier this week, Alex Krüger explained that if BTC breaks past $4,200, which it did, it would be fair to say that the previously ongoing downturn had been reversed. Krüger even quipped that he is “going to miss this big fellow.” And more recently, as hinted at earlier, Tom Lee claimed that Bitcoin is officially in a “bull run” state, drawing attention to the fact that it closed above a key moving average, thereby cementing the validity of the recent surge.
Not So Fast, Weekly Guppy Indicates Otherwise
Funnily enough, however, the one-week Guppy is telling an entirely different story. Nunya Bizniz recently wrote on Twitter that the last time Bitcoin’s one-week Guppy looked as it is now, BTC rallied into the top of its range, before a final capitulation event, which brought the cryptocurrency lower than the seeming bottom. Thus, if history repeats, BTC will move to as high as $5,600 in the coming weeks, before a rapid sell-off that brings the asset under $3,000 for mere days.

BTC: Guppy. pic.twitter.com/1PbWKaJNju
— Nunya Bizniz (@Pladizow) April 5, 2019

A trader going by the moniker “Budd” made a similar point, explaining that his analysis of the same weekly indicator shows that there are a “few more months of sideways” before an eventual rally, making it clear that this recent price action doesn’t exactly confirm that BTC hitting all-time highs soon is possible.

Weekly Guppy says we have a few more months of sideways @AltcoinPsycho pic.twitter.com/U0PnfH0aZ6
— ₿udd (@crypto_budd) April 5, 2019
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Traders Remain Bullish, But Bitcoin Fundamentals Tell A Bearish Story

After 72 hours of nearly non-stop crypto hype, the market took a proverbial chill pill on Thursday, as buying pressure slightly subsided across the board. As a result of this, Bitcoin (BTC) fell from $5,300 to $4,800 as of the time of writing this, leading to a similar, if not more exaggerated collapse in other cryptocurrencies.
Some analysts are adamant that this move is simply a much-needed act of consolidation after a well-overextended rally, which pushed BTC past $4,200, $4,600, and $5,000 — three key resistances — in rapid recession. But fundamental researchers, who harness blockchain data, claim that a further move lower could be in store for Bitcoin.
Prepare For The Worst? On-Chain Bitcoin Data Signals Pullback
David Puell, the head of research at Murad Mahmudov’s cryptocurrency-focused hedge fund Adaptive Capital, recently unveiled an updated version of NVT Signal (NVTS), which relates network value and the 90-day moving average of daily transactional value to try and call Bitcoin bottoms and tops.
Related Reading: Crypto Professionals Predict $2,400 Bitcoin Bottom, Expect Infrastructure To Spark Bull Run
The indicator, which utilizes data from CoinMetrics, is currently trending higher (and has been since January), underscoring that the Bitcoin blockchain is showing signs of life, even following 2018’s dramatic downturn. But that isn’t the whole story. As Puell depicts, the current action in NVTS resembles that seen in early-2015, which was during a bear market recovery, but prior to Bitcoin’s final act of capitulation in that cycle.

$BTC: NVT Signal with brand new @coinmetrics transaction volume data.
Tells a much clearer picture of the current state of affairs. Loving it.@woonomic, @MustStopMurad, and I have more on this later. pic.twitter.com/8WEt29eSab
— David Puell (@kenoshaking) April 4, 2019

Thus, if history repeats itself, the ongoing uptick in NVTS could be shut down by a dramatic BTC wick below $3,000. As Puell explained in the sub-tweets under his original message, the chart above “implies [that there will be] a pullback before transaction finally spikes, followed by a confirmed bull run.” The Adaptive Capital partner didn’t mention any explicit price forecasts, but considering historical precedent, the final bout of selling pressure could bring Bitcoin well under $3,000.
Through a follow-up tweet, Puell’s partner in crime, Australian crypto researcher Willy Woo, also expressed a slightly wary sentiment towards the current state of the Bitcoin blockchain. Woo, a long-term Bitcoin bull, writes that the Bitcoin Network Momentum (BNM) indicator, a measure similar to NVT in that it weighs BTC’s value to the value of on-chain transactional throughput, recently “painted a very grim picture.”
In fact, as seen below on Woo’s chart, BNM collapsed to levels not seen since 2014’s bear market trough in early-2018, subsequently stagnating for over half a year. While there has been an uptick in this indicator, as the daily transaction count for Bitcoin has been on the rise, it previously signaled that there was “lots more bear to come,” as Woo writes on Twitter.

All charts on my site derive their on-chain volume from @blockchain (BCHAIN), this was our first and most reliable source until recently. It painted a very grim picture of the market… it was saying “lots more bear to come” pic.twitter.com/48YhhjH7Kg
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) April 5, 2019
Technical Analysts Still Bullish On BTC
On-chain data may paint a foreboding picture for the cryptocurrency market, but technical analysts have remained thoroughly enthused, even in the face of Thursday’s sudden 8% correction.
Industry personality Jacob Canfield recently drew out a chart that predicted that BTC would consolidate at and around $4,700, prior to moving higher to its 350-day moving average and two key Fibonacci levels. If this move comes to fruition, Bitcoin could be trading at the $5,700 range in a few weeks’ time, Canfield’s chart depicts.

From my $BTC long earlier, my stop is at 4750. Seeing big buy walls at $4800 and $4750.
Potential final move for #bitcoin before consolidation or moving sideways.
Final target is the 350MA on the daily along with the 1.618 of the 4th wave and 2.618 of the 2nd. pic.twitter.com/1QC796OQ7u
— Jacob Canfield (Official Account) (@JacobCanfield) April 4, 2019

Josh Rager echoed this analysis to a tee. The advisor to both TokenBacon and Blackwave remarked that while BTC isn’t going to see $6,500+ (or fresh lows sub-$3,200 for that matter) anytime soon, he expects for the cryptocurrency to consolidate at $4,670. And if this level, which is currently where Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average is situated, holds, he expects for a bullish continuation, just like Canfield.
Even Fundstrat’s Tom Lee threw his hat into the ring. The New York-based analysis outfit recently told CNBC that Bitcoin’s “fair value” is $14,000 right now, citing the fact that Bitcoin and commodities often do trade at 2.5 times the cost it costs to produce them. And with Fundstrat estimating that the cost to mine one BTC currently sits in the $5,500 region, the aforementioned quintuple digit sum was extrapolated.
He furthered his call that $14,000 could be in store for the leading cryptocurrency in a note to MarketWatch, in which he explained that Bitcoin, on average, moved 193% higher in the six months after it broke its 200-day moving average. Many say that it is unfair that past action is not indicative of future performance, but optimists sure hope that Lee & Co. are correct.
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How Bitcoin May Surge off of Billions of Dollars From IPOs Like Lyft, Uber

After multiple private funding rounds over half a decade, the San Francisco-headquartered Lyft, the world’s second largest ridesharing startup, took to the Nasdaq on Friday after months of media hype. While this happening has little to do with crypto on the surface, some industry commentators claim that Lyft’s initial success on American markets could bode well for Bitcoin (BTC) and other digital assets.
Silicon Valley’s Biggest Startups May Go Public, Could Crypto Rally?
The time has come for some of Silicon Valley’s biggest names to go public, as firms look to migrate away from the venture capital-only funding model. Lyft, of course, is now live on the Nasdaq. But, the transportation startup, which has consumed one-third of the world’s ridesharing market, is reported to soon be joined by companies like Uber ($72 billion), Pinterest ($12.3 billion), Postmates ($2 billion), Slack ($7 billion) and Airbnb ($31 billion) — whose products you likely actively use.
Related Reading: Why This Early Uber Investor Bought Bitcoin at Under $1 in 2009
This “IPO Frenzy,” as The Wall Street Journal dubs it, will allow venture capital firms to slowly unload billions of dollars worth of shares in the aforementioned companies, as long as their lockup contract allows it. Much of the cash (rumored to be in the dozens, if not hundreds of billions) garnered as a result of the sale of shares is likely to be reinvested in some of the Bay Area’s hottest names, Bitcoin-friendly firms included.
Barry Silbert, the head of Digital Currency Group, a New York-headquartered cryptocurrency conglomerate, claims that this newfound supply of cash, held by investors like Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), Accel, the Founders Fund, and Sequoia (all of which have serious stakes in the crypto industry already), will find its way into the hands of cryptocurrency and blockchain names.

Billions of dollars in private company stock is becoming liquid via IPOs this year. The crypto asset class is going to be a huge beneficiary
— Barry Silbert (@barrysilbert) March 29, 2019

This isn’t just baseless speculation.
a16z secured Lyft shares for $4.25 apiece in a private round years ago. These same shares now sell for $77 on the public market, netting the prominent venture firm a purported $1.8 billion. With Andreessen Horowitz also owning 5% of Pinterest, it should be able to cash $500 million out when the social media platform goes public. A hefty percentage of this liquid capital will likely be siphoned into the American fund’s crypto arm, which established a $300 million war chest for blockchain firms last year.

The @A16Z Fund III , $900M , 2012 vintage looks pretty good
own 6% of $LYFT, should generate $1.8B in liquidity based on $30B valuation, a 2x on the fund
also own over 5% of Pinterest, which should generate $500M+
Based on those two deals, will likely hit 3x DPI
— Shai (@shaig) March 28, 2019

Not So Fast, Claims Bitcoin Bull Arthur Hayes
While Silbert’s conjecture makes sense, especially considering the notable overlap of IPO whales and pro-crypto venture capitalists, Arthur Hayes isn’t convinced that the arrival of Silicon Valley startups on Wall Street will be a boon. In Hayes’ recent profanity-ridden BitMEX Crypto Trader Digest, the industry insider adamantly claimed that VC money is unlikely to find its way into the blockchain space.
Hayes remarks that 2017’s Bitcoin rally (and other cryptocurrencies too) was effectively predicated on “easy” or “free” money, which was created by the Federal Reserve’s third quantitative easing (QE) session. On the other hand, the collapse in this budding market over 2018 went hand-in-hand with a period of quantitative tightening, which also created turmoil in the stock markets. But interestingly, Hayes explains that the U.S. central bank “couldn’t stomach a 20% correction in the S&P 500,” and thus could begin another round of QE.

While this turn of events makes it sound like the prophesized fourth QE will boost cryptocurrencies yet again, the BitMEX chief executive claims that the next influx of “easy money will manifest itself in other higher profile and more liquid dogs**t before crypto.” Hayes adds that this newfangled asset class will be the last to “feel the love (VCs cashing in on IPO deals),” specifically as a result of 2018’s downturn, which likely left a sour taste in the mouths of bigwig investors — sour enough to disenchant them from “FOMO[ing] back into the markets.”
However, this all isn’t to say that cryptocurrencies cannot do well over 2019. In fact, Hayes explains that he still fully expects for Bitcoin to reach quintuple-digits by this year’s end, somehow. The former institutional player, who was slammed hard by 2008’s Great Recession, explains that by early-Q4 “green shoots will begin to appear,” giving Bitcoin a chance to rally back to $10,000 and potentially beyond.
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Perfect Storm Brewing For Bitcoin: Macro Factors Setting Stage For Crypto Rally

At long last, the crypto asset market has begun to get back on its feet after 2018’s harrowing decline. Technical indicators are seemingly falling in place for a recovery, and fundamentals have begun to present a positive precedent for Bitcoin (BTC).
In fact, one analyst writes that there is currently a “perfect storm” being brewed for the leading cryptocurrency at the moment, citing the rise in certain macroeconomy trends that could be a boon for BTC.
Related Reading: Survey: 72% of Institutional Investors Believe Crypto Prices Would Rise in a Recession
Macro Catalysts Could Boost Bitcoin
Brendan Bernstein, the founding partner of Tetras Capital, an industry investment firm whose partners seem skeptical of Ethereum, recently laid out why he believes BTC’s long-term prospects are healthy.
Like Travis Kling, Bernstein, a proponent of the “Bitcoin, not blockchain” raison d’etre, drew attention to the Federal Reserve’s propensity to enlist quantitative easing (QE) strategies. While QE, which is a fiscal policy that sees central banks purchase assets to boost the economy, has arguably been a positive catalyst for cryptocurrencies for the better part of a decade, some fear that the economy might get dicey.
Anti-establishment figures, presumably like Bernstein, are wary that with the overutilization of QE, the economy could be put in a bad place, potentially giving BTC a chance to rally as a non-correlated store of value.

Theres a perfect storm for BTC right now
– Democratic socialism– MMT (Modern monopoly money theory)– QE infinity– 10k boomers retiring daily (entitlements skyrocketing)– 2020 election– US interest expense > tax receipts by 2022– BTC halving in 2020
Never been more bullish
— Brendan Bernstein (@BMBernstein) March 29, 2019

Next, the Tetras founder looked to the rise in democratic socialism (seen in the 2020 election cycle)and modern monetary theory (MMT), two political and economic strategies deemed necessary for the betterment of the economy, but could result in inflation or other fiscal shortcomings. With one of Bitcoin’s most-touted characteristics being its deflationary issuance schedule, the rapid inflation of prominent government-issued currencies would likely give cryptocurrencies an opportunity to rally and eat up the global monetary pie.
With Bernstein claiming that 10,000 baby boomers are retiring daily, leading to a skyrocketing number of entitlements, central banks could be put under even more pressure, as global governments struggle to fill the needs of the retirement system. As Anthony Pompliano once wrote, pension funds do not have the ability to pay their dues, leaving something like Bitcoin the only answer to their problems.
Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Swell To $1.5 Million If It Absorbs All Fiat and Gold Holdings
And to put the cherry on the top of the crypto cake, the Bitcoin pundit looks to the U.S. sovereign debt issue, which will see interest expenses surpass the tax receipts themselves by 2022. Although some economists see ways out of this debacle, many libertarians claim that to solve this issue, the Federal Reserve’s only option would be to print its way out of a debt crisis, thereby inflating the dollar beyond compare.
Crypto Investors Over The Moon
Bernstein’s recent optimistic quip comes as crypto investors the world over, and notable ones at that, have also started to express unwavering hope for the long-term prospects of Bitcoin. In other words, Bernstein isn’t the only investor sure that BTC is far from biting the dust, despite a seeming scathing hit piece from The Economist, which lambasted cryptocurrencies and their premises.
Alistair Milne, the chief investment officer of an industry fund, recently took to Twitter to write that “pretty much every OG Bitcoin trader” that he respects is leaning bullish. Technical analyst The Crypto Dog echoed this too, remarking on Twitter that he knows many that are bullish, in spite of the downturn.

Pretty much every OG Bitcoin trader I respect is now leaning bullish
— Alistair Milne (@alistairmilne) March 31, 2019

It is clear that underlying industry developments, coupled with the recent price action, has begun to convince many cryptocurrency investors that this rally has legs, and that the bear market finally is over. However, some cynics claim that’s it’s too early to call for a rally, citing bull traps and fakeouts. But who will come out on top?
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What A Bitcoin-Friendly Cornell Prof Thinks Will Propel Crypto Past $1 Trillion

According to one Cornell professor proficient in computer science and an advocate for Bitcoin, Emin Gun Sirer, crypto will be unable to surmount a $1 trillion collective valuation until certain requirements are met. He believes that with industry developments, “crypto winter will end” — eventually.
Crypto Needs Scaling, Real Use-Cases, Decentralized Solutions
Sirer recently wrote on Twitter that the cryptocurrency market surpassed $700 billion with “inherently unscalable technologies,” referring to 2017’s seemingly hype-based rally. While some were sure that $1 trillion was in crypto’s sights then, the market obviously pulled back drastically.

Crypto winter will end.
We reached $700B with inherently unscalable technologies.
We will surpass $1T when we figure out how to scale, how to build non-custodial solutions, how to layer apps that people want to use and that bring net positive outcomes to society.
— Emin Gün Sirer (@el33th4xor) March 28, 2019
However, Sirer is under the belief that with scaling solutions, potentially like the Lightning Network or Ethereum’s Proof of Stake; a surge in non-custodial solutions, thereby mitigating the risk of hacks (just look at DragonEx & Bithumb); viable use cases that bring “net positive outcomes to society,” this market could finally begin to rally again.
Related Reading: EOS Scaling Issues and Their Impact on the Blockchain
Bitcoin To Surpass $1 Trillion With Halving Alone
While Sirer is making a case that the cryptocurrency market needs technical development to surpass the $1 trillion milestone, a number of pundits have recently claimed that this may not be the case.

PlanB, an industry researcher, recently claimed that 2020’s block reward reduction could be the sole catalyst that hoists BTC above $50,000 apiece. As reported by NewsBTC previously, the analyst noted that if Bitcoin follows a linear trend that relates the stock-to-flow ratio (SF) to asset valuation, the mentioned auspicious event will allow the aggregate value of all BTC to reach $1 trillion.
While $55,000 for each BTC seems irrational for most, PlanB writes that money from silver, gold, negative interest rate economies, authoritarian and capital control-rife states, billionaires looking for a quantitative easing hedge, and institutional investors will eventually flood into this space. This in and of itself may seem like a pipe dream, but some are sure this is likely, especially with the increase in hyperinflation, fiscal mismanagement, and speculators looking for alternative investment opportunities.
Although many are sure that the halving event will create waves, Messari’s Ryan Selkis recently drew attention to another catalyst that could be responsible for creating a $1 trillion Bitcoin. The chief executive of Messari explained that with millennials inheriting billions from their to-be-deceased parents over the coming decades, much of that money could theoretically find itself in the crypto market, pushing up prices as a result.
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Is The Crypto Bear Dead Yet? Trader Calls For Bitcoin Double Bottom

Over recent weeks, Bitcoin (BTC) has embarked on a slow and steady uptrend, moving convincingly off the mid-$3,000s. With the crypto asset recently holding above $4,000 on the back of an influx of volume, some are sure that bears in this market are ready to bite the dust.
But according to a popular trader, bears might get one last hurrah in the form of a final sell-off, which will likely mark the end of the ongoing market cycle.
Related Reading: Analyst: Bitcoin (BTC) Surging Above 4,200 Will Mark the End of the Bear Market
BTC To Double Bottom
Per analysis completed by Roger Quantrillo, there’s a likelihood that Bitcoin could find itself at $3,200 once again, in spite of the reports that this budding market is off of thin ice. Quantrillo looks to 2014-2016’s cycle, which saw BTC test a high, pullback by ~80% to a low at around ~$250, partially recover, and revisit the same low region again. This was followed by the monumental rally seen in 2017, which catapulted cryptocurrencies to the mainstream in a sudden turn of events.

Bitcoin: I really think we will see a double Bottom around 3200$ between 27.05.2019 – 01.06.2019..Second scenario is last week of April with a lil bit lower price around 3k! But first one fits my overall bias! What you think @crypToBanger .. #btc #bitcoin #btcusd #crypto pic.twitter.com/tCAPuXo3Dy
— Roger Quantrillo (@rogerquantrillo) March 30, 2019

Therefore, if history is repeated, BTC could find itself at the levels seen in mid-December yet again, meaning that a move to $3,200 in the coming weeks and months (Quantrillo predicts late-May) may just be imminent.
Of course, there is no guarantee that Bitcoin will follow its historical price action, but some are sure that the use of such analysis is extremely logical and viable in a market like cryptocurrencies, which are seemingly predicated on cycles alone.
Bitcoin To Break Lower
While the aforementioned analyst seems to be leaning bullish in that lower lows could be out of the cards, some are adamant that Bitcoin could easily go under $3,000 in an act of “capitulation”

Mahmudov, a partner at Adaptive Capital, recently argued that the cryptocurrency has yet to enter its “accumulation” region,” as it still is susceptible to lower lows. He expects for Bitcoin to enter a region of “hell,” in which the asset will range trade between $1,700 and $3,000 as 2020’s halving event nears. The reason why he expects for a sub-$3,000 is due to a combination of historical and fundamentals factors.
In a tweetstorm, Mahmudov explained that the waning number of Bitcoin-related comments on Twitter, as per BitInfo, should indicate that there remain very few people that care about decentralized, sovereign, uninflatable currency, thus limiting Bitcoin’s upside. The prominent analyst, who formerly worked on Wall Street, added that he expects for a “Final Capitulation” to play out, which will see BTC drop by potentially another 50% in a dramatic wick event.
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The “Conservative” Case For A Bitcoin (BTC) Rally To $50,000

While the value of Bitcoin remains down in the dumps, so to speak, its believers still have stars in their eyes. Many crypto investors are adamant that their holdings will eventually retest their all-time highs, prior to another jaw-dropping rally.
And while countless cynics have begged to differ, these hopes were validated recently with an extremely optimistic, yet potentially rational tweet from Ryan Selkis, the chief executive of Messari.
“Great Wealth Transfer” To Spark Bitcoin Rally?
It isn’t a secret that crypto’s audience is primarily millennial and younger. It makes sense. Cryptocurrencies, namely Bitcoin, are inherently digital, and of the Internet, as Jack Dorsey recently put it.
Related Reading: Binance CEO Lauds Jack Dorsey’s Pro Bitcoin Comments On Joe Rogan
Selkis used this demographic fact to his advantage, recently writing on Twitter that as millennials en-masse inherit $30 trillion from their baby boomer parents over the coming decades, much of the money could find its way into digital assets, meant for the Information Age that society currently resides in.

There's a $30 trillion "great wealth transfer" expected in the next 20+ years (millennials inheriting money from their parents).
If 1% of that goes into cryptocurrencies, crypto will be a multi-trillion dollar asset class.
That's the conservative case for $50k+ bitcoin.
— Ryan Selkis (@twobitidiot) March 28, 2019

Messari’s chief writes that if even 1% of the $30 trillion floods into crypto, which equates to about $300 billion, BTC could find itself conservatively at $50,000. This doesn’t exactly add up, but the call does make sense.
As hinted at in a previous NewsBTC report, due to the shallow order books (low liquidity) that are a byproduct of nascent markets, U.S. dollars that enter this market have often had an amplified effect on the value of digital assets. Per analysis compiled by Alex Kruger, a leading markets researcher, JP Morgan claims that for the crypto assets at large, a fiat amplifier of 117.5 is present, as a purported $2 billion in net inflow pushed Bitcoin’s market capitalization from $15 billion to $250 billion But, this isn’t the whole story. Citigroup purportedly estimated an amplifier of 50, while Chris Burniske of Placeholder Ventures calculated the figure out to somewhere between two and 25.
Considering a low-end estimate of ten times, that means the “great wealth transfer” that Selkis refers to could boost cryptocurrency’s value by $3 trillion, thus setting the stage for BTC to surmount $50,000. 
Crypto Cynics Aren’t Too Sure
Although Selkis was fairly convinced that his thesis is entirely probable, some begged to differ. David Silver explained that if his parents left him with money, he would not invest in Bitcoin, explaining that allocating inheretance money to cryptocurrencies “IS NOT AN INVESTMENT STRATEGY.”

While @twobitidiot MIGHT be right – this is not a use case investment analysis about why BTC could reach $50,000 – it’s a Suckers Born Every Minute – analysis. If my parents die and leave me money and I invest it in bitcoin I’ll be rich – IS NOT AN INVESTMENT STRATEGY. https://t.co/QlP9lzYmD4
— David Silver (SILVER MILLER) (@dcsilver) March 28, 2019

Others were less overtly sardonic, and were instead, skeptically optimistic. David Nage explained that while the transfer of wealth could be massive for cryptocurrencies, especially in an increasingly digital world, money won’t flow in on a whim. In other words, if the technology and infrastructure stay stagnant, it is nonsensical to assume that fiat from estates will rush into digital assets, whether it be Bitcoin, Ethereum, or otherwise, without a proper catalyst.

Obviously know about the wealth transfer data…agree that it “could” be massive for crypto.
However let’s not diminish the incredibly hard work that’s needed from everyone in the ecosystem to make that happen.
— David Nage (@DavidJN79) March 28, 2019
Thus, Nage concludes that if the “conservative case” is to come to fruition, industry stakeholders will need to continue putting their nose to the grindstone, so to speak, to create an inviting environment for the mentioned hypothesized wealth transfer.
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