Bitcoin [BTC]: Analyst Calls for Bullish Target at $12,870, but are bulls in the Clear?

Bitcoin [BTC] price turned slightly bearish last day as price dipped below $9250 levels to test low at $8985. The 200-Day Moving Average ($9025) is currently acting as support. However, the 100-Day moving average ($9607) as resistance.
Trader Josh Rager tweeted on the price movements,
$BTC lower time frame range broke before daily open leading down to test $9k
Keep an eye on $8800, needs to hold and above 200DMA
Weekly/ monthly open still remain the place to break for continuation
According to him, the weekly open at $9547 and the previous month opening at $9593 remain critical for the continuation of the bullish break.
BTC/USD 1-Day Chart on Bitstamp (TradingView)
Sawcruhteez tweeted about the break above the falling wedge pattern on Bitcoin. The target of the move is $12,800. Nevertheless, in his Sawcruhteez Streams, he also listed the bearish arguments, which were quite significant.

The current $BTC market structure looks like a confirmed falling wedge, which would provide a target of $12,870. 🧐
— Financial Survivalism (@Sawcruhteez) October 31, 2019

The recent jump, though attributed to Xi Xinping, hasn’t seen rallying volumes; instead, it has fallen back to levels of consolidation.
Hence, while the historic move indicated buying into strength, Sawcruhteez suggested that the Ichimoku cloud and ADX indicators are still bearish. He also hinted at the possibility of whale-sized orders shifting the price, which could lack real strength in the market.
Bitcoin NVT Signal (Source: Woobull)
The NVT signal, which measures the ratio of value to the 90DMA transaction volume, also witnessed a spiked to 80 following the move. This could suggest over-valued conditions. However, the growth of the futures and derivatives market is having an increasing effect on Bitcoin’s price as well.
Bitcoin Futures Order Book Update
BitMEX recorded another consecutive day of long liquidation as the expectations of bulls failed to meet. About $19.6 million longs were liquidated. However, 4.25 million in shorts were settled, as well.
Bitcoin [BTC] Funding and Premium Index at BitMEX (TradingView)The funding and premium rate at the derivates exchanges also dipped as the uncertainty seems to have crept in the market. The basis on Okex, which was trading about $10, has also declined to $4. While still positive, the volume of buying interest seems to have cooled down.
Hence, while the price action is inclining towards a cool-down, a bullish break is on the cards.
Do bulls have the strength for another round of gains? Please share your views with us. 
The post Bitcoin [BTC]: Analyst Calls for Bullish Target at $12,870, but are bulls in the Clear? appeared first on Coingape.
Source: CoinGape

NVT: Top and Bottom Indicator Signals Time To Buy Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s network to transactions ratio, or NVT for short, is an indicator developed by crypto analyst Willy Woo as a signal for deterring tops and bottoms of Bitcoin cycles.
A tweaked version of the indicator, one that was designed to filter out private transactions, is now signaling that Bitcoin is in a buy zone – an ideal time for buying Bitcoin at the point of greatest potential financial return.
Indicator That Called Bitcoin’s Recent Top Is Now Signaling Buy
Few crypto analysts have contributed to the overall Bitcoin community as much as Willy Woo. Woo has conducted extensive analysis and has even designed his own indicator for spotting the tops and bottoms of Bitcoin cycles, by looking at the network’s total value to transaction ratio.
The theory is that when Bitcoin’s total network value outpaces the ratio of transactions across the network, the price of the asset has risen past its fair market value, and is due for a correction.
Related Reading | Experts Weigh In On The Future of Bitcoin and Blockchain
The NVT indicator reached its highest peak of the last few years when Bitcoin reached its recent local top of $14,000 – a peak that was higher than even Bitcoin’s $20,000 all-time high.
However, even though the indicator work like a charm, predicting a nearly 50% fall from that top to under $8,000, Woo says that the indicator has become less reliable due to private transactions clouding the clarity of the results.

I quite like this dynamic ranging NVTS. I did something similar with NVT and quietly updated the chart last month.
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) October 10, 2019

But another crypto analyst has further honed the helpful top and bottom-calling tool, and created a version of the NVT signal that tracks the signal against a “dynamic” two-year, “long-term range.”
This new version of the indicator shows that Bitcoin’s NVT ratio has reached an ideal buy zone – typically acting as the bottom of a local cycle and providing the greatest financial opportunity in terms of eventual return on investment.
Previous Version Still Accurate, Predicted September Drop to $8,000
At the end of July, almost two full months ahead of the actual drop following the disappointing launch of Bakkt, the NVT signal had predicted that Bitcoin had topped out, and was due for a correction.
Each time the asset’s NVT signal peaked, on average the asset dropped over 50%. Bitcoin’s recent local top was $14,000, and fell just shy of reaching a full 50% retracement. However, the correction may not be over, and a full 50% or greater drop isn’t off the table just yet.
Related Reading | Bitcoin NVT Ratio: Top Predicting Signal Hits Highest Peak, Is a 50% Drop Ahead?
With the regular unfiltered version of the NVT signal being so accurate in calling tops, could this new, modified version of the indicator be even more accurate at calling bottoms – just as it is doing so now?
Featured image from Shutterstock
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Source: New

Bitcoin NVT Ratio: Top Predicting Signal Hits Highest Peak, Is a 50% Drop Ahead?

Bitcoin price is at a critical junction, with either a major bull run ahead or a deeper correction that could mean the bear market hasn’t yet ended. A powerful indicator called the NVT ratio – designed by one of the crypto community’s best and brightest – has been used to time the tops and bottoms of Bitcoin bubbles, and is currently showing that Bitcoin has fallen from the highest levels it’s ever reached.
The last three times Bitcoin reached such high NVT levels, it feel on average 50%. Could a similar drop be ahead? The signal also never signalled a bottom was in back in December, which could suggest that if Bitcoin does drop it could fall further than many are expecting.
Bull Market? Using NVT Ratio and Signal to Determine if Bitcoin Has Topped
Bitcoin is a powerful financial technology. So powerful, it often borders on religion, and many evangelists work tirelessly to spread the word about the first-ever crypto asset to the masses. Others contribute in other ways, dedicating research, analysis or some other kind of educational contribution, but still work toward the same goal of Bitcoin understanding and awareness.
Few have contributed as much to the crypto community as analyst Willy Woo, who created the Bitcoin NVT Ratio, or the ratio of the value of Bitcoin’s network compared to the value of the transactions being broadcasted across the network. Woo’s description of the NVT ratio as the “Bitcoin-land” equivalent to the “price-earnings ratio” in stock markets. But since Bitcoin is not a company, and doesn’t have earnings, NVT ratio can be used as a “proxy” to company earnings.
Related Reading | Why The Next Bitcoin Bull Run Could Eclipse The Last Crypto Bubble
The indicator successfully signaled the top of the 2017 rally, then almost immediately after signaled the sharp V-bottom structure in February 2018. The drop from peak to bottom was a nearly 70% drop, and ultimately, was not Bitcoin’s final bottom.
Later in 2018, NVT peaked again in July, resulting in a quick 27% fall that was quickly bought back up during the height of the ETF-approval speculation. Shortly after, NVT peaked again in August and stayed elevated until mid-November when Bitcoin plummeted to its eventual bear market “bottom.”
The drop in November to the December “bottom,” was a 58% fall. Averaging out the three major NVT ratio peaks to their eventual “bottoms” suggests that a nearly 52% drop could be in the cards for Bitcoin.

Chart created with TradingView
Bear Market? Indicator Never Signalled a Bottom Was In
It’s worth noting a few other factors that make the theory supporting NVT ratio as the best spot of tops and bottoms inconclusive.
For now, the indicator never signaled a bottom was in back in December 2018 the same way it did in February 2018. Either this means the indicator simply missed didn’t pick it up, or could mean that a bottom hasn’t actually been set.
Related Reading | Bubble Hasn’t Begun: Google Trends Shows Little Interest in $10,000 Bitcoin
Many analysts have used the NVT ratio in their trading strategies with great success. The eccentric and outspoken top TradingView author MagicPoopCannon has repeatedly cited NVT as an important indicator he uses for Bitcoin price action and setting targets.

Bitcoin's 50 day EMA is right at 10k. If we break below that, we could see a major fall. Also, the NVT is finally flashing a sell signal again. The 50 EMA is very important right now. I'm expecting it to act as tremendous initial support, but soemtimes BTC DGAF.
— MAGIC (@MagicPoopCannon) July 14, 2019

Currently, MagicPoopCannon is expecting more downside in Bitcoin’s future based on the NVT indicator, however, the creator of the indicator himself remains bullish. The signal’s creator, Willy Woo says that “stage 1” of Bitcoin’s bull run has laid the foundation for the full bull run to begin. This suggests that while the creator of the NVT signal expects a pullback, he isn’t putting any additional faith in its ability to stop tops and bottoms.

Stage 1 of the bull market is completing, once we bottom stage 2 begins promising the long sustainable bull drive that takes us through all of 2020 (if BTC continues its personality). Stage 1 was trader driven dominance squeezing us up and driving fomo. Fomo complete, stage set.
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) July 28, 2019

However, tops and bottoms are only that in hindsight, until enough time has passed, it’s difficult to say with any certainty that a bottom has been set. The perfect example of this was throughout the 2018 bear market when most analysts expected support at $6,000 to hold. For now, it’s advisable to consider that neither a top nor a bottom may be in for Bitcoin and to proceed with caution.
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Source: New

The Bearish and the Bullish Scenarios for Bitcoin [BTC] from Here: Analysts

Bitcoin [BTC] continued its impressive break out over the weekend as well as it broke above the $5700 mark reaching this year’s high. The price of Bitcoin at 5: 45 Hours UTC on 5th May 2019 is $5799.
A leading trade analyst, Murad Mahmudov, has created a long thread of analysis of Bitcoin from here. According to him, $5400 is a critical support level for Bitcoin which it must hold above for further continuation of the bull run.
Nevertheless, while he was mostly bullish on Bitcoin, he cited a few negative signals as well. The most striking amongst them was Willy Woo’s NVTS signal.
Bullish Signs
Mahmudov was mostly bullish on Bitcoin [BTC] from these price levels. He gave numerous perspective analysis to stand his case. On the 4-Hour Chart, he suggested that Bitcoin price has been forming an upward consolidation pattern and has turned $5400 from resistance to support. He tweeted:
Resistance flipped support on this order book. 4 Higher Highs. 3 Higher Lows. As the urban legend goes, consolidation patterns that break out upwards.
BTC/USD 4-Hour Chart Analysis (Tweet)
From the weekly chart, he pointed to a Bitcoin-specific analysis from the Relative Strength (RSI). Traditionally, an asset is considered overbought when the RSI crosses above 70. However, Bitcoin is a new asset class which is significantly affected rather positively due to the fresh influx of volume regularly. Hence, Mahmudov identified a long-term S/R line on the weekly RSI at 60.
Also read: Bitcoin [BTC] Enters Critical ‘Support and Resistance’ Zone of $5700-$6200
BTC/USD Weekly RSI (TradingView) 
On the daily chart, he tweeted,
This is speculative on my part, but if the above is right, we could see something crazy like this:
Furthermore, he suggested that the daily RSI also broke above the bearish trendline. From the Bollinger bands, he suggested that Bitcoin has found support near the half-way Moving Average 20 line, which is a bullish signal.
Parabolic Trend on the daily chart of Bitcoin (Tweet)
Bearish Signals
The Bitfinex Premium has been a concern for the traders as even after a week the arbitragers haven’t diluted the difference in the price of Bitcoin between Bitfinex and other Exchanges. Bifinex Premium w.r.t. Coinbase at 5: 45 Hours UTC on 5th May 2019 is $343.
Also read: Bitfinex Premium on Bitcoin Reminiscent of Mt. Gox’s “Good Old Days”: Vinny Lingham
Willy Woo’s famous Network Value to Transactions Ratio (NVT) signal was also brought into the light, however, this time on the bearish side. In the past, an intersection between the NVTS line with the price has usually been identified as a bottom.
Bitcoin NVTS and Price Analysis (Source)
Moreover, this comes an update the earlier version which had reported an intersection which suggested that ‘bottom is in.’ However, if a cue is retaken from this signal, it indicates that the bottom is close but not achieved yet. He noted two other “market indicators” pointing towards a pullback: trendline conspiracy theory and tensorcharts resistance.
According to him, bearish action might resume temporarily. However, he was bullish on it in the long term.
“Then, if we go below 5400 then it’s more consolidation before the next sharp movement.”
Do you agree with the analysis shared? Please share your analysis with us as well. 
The post The Bearish and the Bullish Scenarios for Bitcoin [BTC] from Here: Analysts appeared first on Coingape.
Source: CoinGape