Bitcoin [BTC]: Fundstrat’s Co-founder explains why institutional investors are jumping ship to Bitcoin

Bitcoin is transitioning from being bearish to bullish, as emerging and risk markets rally to produce a tailwind for Bitcoin. Fundstrat’s Thomas Lee has been very vocal about his bullish opinions on Bitcoin. On April 12, Lee tweeted and compared Bitcoin’s correlation with emerging markets and the S&P 500. Lee tweeted,

1/ Risk markets globally have rallied YTD big time and this is a tailwind for #bitcoin $BTC. As noted previously, S&P 500 YTD is 2.5 std dev = ~ $14,000 for BTC
It’s curious that Bitcoin correlation is now negative to equities (next tweet)
From @fundstrat_ken latest piece https://t.co/mgolqFqTbv
— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) April 12, 2019

Lee said that the correlation between Bitcoin and S&P reached the lowest, i.e., -3,2%, while that with Gold hit the highest i.e., 12.6%. The chart attached above shows the correlation of various markets like the S&P 500, Gold, Oil market etc.
The report by Fundstrat elaborated on Bitcoin’s correlation, stating,
“Within major asset classes, Bitcoin is most correlated to Gold with a 90D correlation of 12.6%.In the past week, the largest change in correlation was S&P 500 (-15.7%).”
According to Lee, the disparity between S&P 500 and Bitcoin is with respect to luring investors to invest in Bitcoin, which offers much higher returns when compared to traditional markets. With reference to the Fundstrat report, Lee said that since S&P 500 has been less volatile and since its BTC correlation was turning negative, Bitcoin’s position in the mainstream market seemed to be solidifying. It further explained why institutional investors were showing interest in Bitcoin, he said.
Lee’s conclusion read,
“From page 9 of @fundstrat_ken report, BTC correlation to S&P 500 has turned negative. Couple that with low volatility everywhere and It partially explains why institutions have been buying crypto recently”
In one of his previous tweets, Lee had compared various factors which were acting as tailwinds for Bitcoin, further adding weight to Lee’s opinion about investors jumping ship from markets like the S&P 500 to Bitcoin.
Lee had stated,
“earlier this year, we noted the “macro” factors such as rally in risk assets plus USD no longer surging are tailwinds 4 $BTC #bitcoin”
Moreover, Lee also tweeted about Bitcoin’s Misery Index, according to which, Bitcoin had bottomed as it reached 89, its highest level to-date. He also claimed that the recent pump was the start of a bull rally.
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Source: AMB Crypto

Bitcoin proponent says it’s ‘likely’ that Bitcoin’s bear market ended when it reached $3,000

Bitcoin’s sudden spike on April 02, 2019 has stirred up a lot of belief that the bull run for Bitcoin has already begun, however, some disagree and believe that it is yet to bottom. Fundstrat’s Thomas Lee tweeted his opinion which stated that Bitcoin has “likely” hit the bottom and it is on a bull run.
Lee tweeted:

The Bitcoin Misery Index reached 89 on 4/2. Highest reading since June 2016. Means good and bad.
Good–> Since 2011, BMI >67 only seen during $BTC bull markets. More evidence bull starting.
Bad –> BMI >67 after peak, $BTC falls ~25% = Profit taking ST.#bitcoinmiseryindex pic.twitter.com/X55q2ypiCA
— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) April 11, 2019

In his tweet, Lee spoke about Bitcoin’s Misery Index, which measures the momentum of Bitcoin based on the trading activity and the price. BMI is the ratio of winning trades to total trades, and also takes into account the volatility into a daily score, which is measured on a scale of 0 to 100.
According to Lee, Bitcoin is “miserable” if the BMI is below 27, which means that Bitcoin has reached its lows and it would be a good buy signal. If the BMI is above 67, it is bad, as Bitcoin would be on a bull run and is closer to peaks, which would be a good sell signal.
Lee also mentioned that the BMI was at 89, which is an all-time high for Bitcoin since 2011 and it meant that Bitcoin had bottomed and the bull run had already begun.
With the above explanation, Lee said that Bitcoin’s bull run might have begun. He summed up his tweet saying:
“The main takeway is that BMI reaching 67 is further evidence the bear market for Bitcoin likely ended at $3,000”
Lee is well-known for his predictions on Bitcoin as he recently tweeted another bullish proof for Bitcoin. He said that Bitcoin had moved above the 200-day moving average, which was a bullish indicator for Bitcoin. Lee added that BTC’s ascent above the 200-day moving average had a higher win ratio in comparison to moving away from the 200-day moving average.
He tweeted:
Reminder that BTC generally generates all of its performance within 10D of any year.
–ex the top 10 days, BTC is down 25% annually since 2013”
@_Dumb_Genius, a Twitter user, commented:
“Interesting that BMI recently bottomed in April 18 and then rose but this did not signal actual cycle bottom, just a dead cat bounce followed by a false floor (6K), then capitulation in Nov/Dec 18 (which was still higher BMI than April 18). Is BMI capturing the right things?”
Lee replied:
“This is an index designed to measure sentiment, so it’s not really going to line up with price peaks and troughs”
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Source: AMB Crypto

Crypto Bull Tom Lee: “The Fair Value of Bitcoin Right Now is $14,000”

Ever-the-optimist when it comes to crypto, Tom Lee has stated that he thinks a fair price for Bitcoin is $14,000. He bases this opinion on the cost to mine a Bitcoin and what he considers a traditional markup on commodities.
The managing partner and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors also stated that the ongoing bear market of 2018/19 was over. He believes that infrastructure developments and the accumulation of Bitcoin by so-called whales is behind the change in price trends seen thus far in 2019.
Tom Lee: Infrastructure, Turmoil, and Whales Driving Bitcoin Rally
Tom Lee has appeared once again on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” segment. This time, the Fundstrat manager and researcher provided insight into the latest price rise that took Bitcoin from around $4,119 at the beginning of April to a high of $5,300 yesterday according to Coinmarketcap.
After a “rough 2018”, he stated that the Bitcoin price had been heading up for most of 2019. He attributed this to original investors one again accumulating Bitcoin. Many of these, according to Lee, managed to sell at the top of the 2017 price run up in late December.
Lee believes that several factors are influencing these original Bitcoiners to reload. Amongst them is the growing interest from parts of the suffering from poor government money management or political instability and greater infrastructure development from the likes of Fidelity Investments and the much-anticipated Bakkt platform.
Although not entirely sure what caused the sudden move at the start of April, Lee stated that there was:
“… real evidence that there’s a lot of dry powder.”
He went on to say that the crypto community kept a lot of cash and was waiting for Bitcoin to break below $3,000. When it failed to do so and instead made the recent upwards move, much of this cash poured back in.

FYI, @CNBC interview on BTC with @BeckyQuick, and our take on why the 40% rally in $BTC is credible… @SquawkCNBC https://t.co/5WGfUzW00J
— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) April 4, 2019

Perhaps the most interesting part of the short interview was when Lee gave his opinion that the fair price of Bitcoin is around $14,000. When prompted for explanation, he opined that the price of a commodity is often two to three times its cost of production when in a bull market.
Since Lee estimates that the cost to mine a single Bitcoin is now around $5,000 to $6,000 and therefore a fair valuation is between two and three times that figure. He briefly stated that since Bitcoin has crossed over the 200 day moving average, the market is indeed bullish. He therefore joins a sizeable and growing group of crypto commentators that believes the bear market of 2018 is now over and the bottom is in.
Finally, Lee was asked whether he was buying Bitcoin right now. He largely skirted the question, stating that Fundstrat recommended that individuals invest one to two percent of their net worth in Bitcoin. This according to the presenter was crazy and akin to gambling. Lee largely agreed but sees no problem with a high risk, high reward investment with a small percentage of a portfolio.
The interview concluded with Lee arguing that Bitcoin makes most of its gains in a 10 day window. Therefore, his advice for those wanting to cash in on those gains is simple:
“You’ve got to essentially hold [Bitcoin], or hodl it, as they say, to really capture the gains.”
 
Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Surged More In 1 Hour Than Last Two Months Combined
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Bitcoin is in a ‘perfect storm’ for the rest of 2019 to perform a bullish move

Bitcoin’s collapse from its 2017 high is still continuing. There have been people who said that Bitcoin had bottomed and others who concluded that Bitcoin was yet to bottom.
It is impossible to predict the bottom of Bitcoin, however, it can be seen that Bitcoin has had some improvements in the macro scale as compared to its situation in 2018.
Brendan Bernstein, a Twitter user, pointed out a couple of these factors that were helping Bitcoin, directly or indirectly.

Theres a perfect storm for BTC right now
– Democratic socialism– MMT (Modern monopoly money theory)– QE infinity– 10k boomers retiring daily (entitlements skyrocketing)– 2020 election– US interest expense > tax receipts by 2022– BTC halving in 2020
Never been more bullish
— Brendan Bernstein (@BMBernstein) March 29, 2019

Fundstrat’s Thomas Lee aka Tom Lee, a Bitcoin bull and an enthusiast, commented on the tweet. He agreed with Bernstein and added that there were definitely a number of macro factors acting as tailwinds for Bitcoin. He also mentioned that a couple of these tailwinds were acting as headwinds for Bitcoin in 2018.
In addition, Lee posted an image which detailed a list of factors which were a hindrance to Bitcoin’s growth, but have now transformed into a helping factor for Bitcoin.
Source: Twitter | Thomas Lee
Some of these factors included the US Dollar, EM, and Bitcoin Technicals, among others. The US Dollar, according to Lee, will weaken over the course of 2019 due to various reasons like QE by the Fed, and debt reaching an all-time high. Emerging Market [EM] was a headwind in 2018 and is now starting to act as a tailwind for Bitcoin as EMs are outperforming equities.
The technicals for Bitcoin, particularly the 200-day moving average, is currently acting as a support for Bitcoin’s prices. According to Lee, the price of Bitcoin will support the 200-day moving average and push for a bull run.
Other factors included the overall development in the crypto and the blockchain community, like the adoption of the Lightning Network, which would help Bitcoin scale successfully. Clarity regarding regulatory framework around cryptocurrencies and the entry of institutional investors into crypto could also trigger the bull run.
A Twitter user, @bitcoinpassada, commented:
“It’s honestly not even a question any more. 100k is gonna look cheap for a lot of people within a few more years.”
@tradeslower, another Twitter user, commented:
“Not to mention macro ie recession risk into 2021. QE has created alpha addiction/expectation like no other per equities. When that music stops where does liquidity turn to? Pension crisis? Bitcoin allocations…?”
The post Bitcoin is in a ‘perfect storm’ for the rest of 2019 to perform a bullish move appeared first on AMBCrypto.
Source: AMB Crypto

Tom Lee of Fundstrat: Bitcoin Bulls to Return in 2019

Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors has once again given cryptocurrency market predictions. The long-term Bitcoin bull stated earlier that sentiment will once again turn positive during 2019.
Lee draws on technical, macro, and fundamental indicators to make these conclusions. However, we all know that he has been wrong on more than one occasion when it comes to Bitcoin price.
Tom Lee: Bitcoin Cash “Fork Wars” Terrible for Investor Confidence
Tom Lee, the co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors appeared earlier today on a CNBC segment titled, “Futures Now”. There, he was asked about his outlook for the Bitcoin (BTC) and general cryptocurrency markets.
Lee opined that 2019 was a year of “repair” for BTC. He stated that the Bitcoin Cash hard fork and the subsequent “fork wars” as he refers to threats made by Craig S. Wright to 51% attack the Bitcoin ABC side of the split out of existence had been massively detrimental for investor confidence.
During the so-called “fork wars”, the price of Bitcoin dropped steeply from the low $6,000 range it had held for many weeks down to just above $3,000. Lee therefore expects this range to serve as massive resistance on the way back up.
However, the BTC optimist did highlight multiple positive factors that he believes will allow the market to soar when sentiment does finally improve. These included previous macro headwinds – the fact that the dollar performed so well in 2018, for example; infrastructure improvements – the launch of Fidelity’s custody solution and the Bakkt platform; and finally, technical indicators – Bitcoin price is now comfortably bouncing along the 200 day moving average.
The upcoming launch of various crypto products from multi-trillion-dollar Fidelity has many excited.
The conversation then turned briefly to Venezuela. Lee pointed out that people there were starting to use cryptocurrency thanks to the hyper-inflated bolivar:
“Turmoil is causing adoption to grow.”
Lee: JPM Coin is No Competition for Bitcoin
When going through the various positive factors that would boost the Bitcoin price when sentiment finally improved, Lee mentioned the launch of digital currencies by some of the planet’s largest financial institutions and companies. This prompted a question about whether such centralised digital assets posed a threat to Bitcoin’s value proposition. The research analyst replied that he did not think that it represented competition and that Bitcoin would remain at the centre of the digital currency universe:
“It’s not a threat to Bitcoin because it doesn’t offer upside but it probably makes other stable-coin projects less useful… Bitcoin is essentially starting to look like a reserve currency for digital currencies in general.”
Finally, Lee was pushed for a timeline for market sentiment to improve. The Fundstrat co-founder stated that he felt it needed perhaps five or six months more to recover from the plunge into the $3,000-4,000 range, which he attributes to the Bitcoin Cash fork last year.
It is worth remembering that Tom Lee has been spectacularly wrong about BTC price predictions in the past. He spent most of 2018 calling for BTC to exceed its previous all-time high set at the end of 2017. This, of course, never happened. His new outlook appears more measured by contrast and the analyst has been aloof from giving precise figures this time round too.
 
Related Reading: Analyst: Bitcoin Is a Bull, High Possibility of $5,000 by May
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Is $1,000,000 for Bitcoin Real? IBM’s VP of Blockchain Jesse Lund Thinks It Is

CoinSpeaker

Is $1,000,000 for Bitcoin Real? IBM’s VP of Blockchain Jesse Lund Thinks It Is

Mr. Lund notes that if we continue to focus on the utility of Bitcoin (BTC), its price will surely surge northwards creating much higher liquidity to be considered by big organizations.

Is $1,000,000 for Bitcoin Real? IBM’s VP of Blockchain Jesse Lund Thinks It Is

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Source: CoinSpeaker

Fundstrat’s Thomas Lee: Bitcoin [BTC] bearish market will transcend into a bullish one in 2019

Thomas Lee, the renowned Bitcoin bull and the Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, has come out to state that most technical analysts are switching their Bitcoin [BTC] predictions for 2019 from bearish to bullish.
Following the February 8 uptrend, which saw the overall market cap add a whopping $9 billion in less than 24-hours and saw coins reach massive double-digit percent increases against the US dollar, proponents are hopeful, and Tom Lee backs this hope with numbers.
Lee appeared on Fox Business to reiterate his bullish sentiment for the coin and then took to Twitter to state the same. He referenced a piece from a “MagicPoopCannon,” titled, “Odds Increasing That The Bitcoin bear is Dead!” and added that the analysts who were bearish on cryptocurrencies in 2019 are switching to the bull. He added that the piece looks at a 200-week moving average acting as the support, which people like Robert Sluymer, the Managing Director and Technical Strategist at Fundstrat, have noted as well.
In his analysis, MagicPoopCannon compared the Bitcoin price charts from early-2015 to the current period. He stated that there is a triangle formed using the 200 MA and that Bitcoin has, “rallied back into the triangle formation that it broke down from”. He added that if the coin could close its daily price candlestick inside the triangle, that would represent 2015-like conditions and prove to be a bullish swing.
MagicPoopCannon had earlier confirmed that Bitcoin would bottom at $2,000 and that the February 8 bullish push could prove a strong technical case for the top cryptocurrency. Bitcoin surged from being just under $3,400 at the start of the trading day on February 8 to a high of almost $3,700 at the close of the day, a remarkable rise following weeks of bearish movement.
He also drew several parallels between LTC’s recent rise, which saw the coin surge by over 30 percent, and that of Bitcoin’s, he added that “as soon as LTC began to move, I figured BTC would follow suit”. The analyst believes that if Bitcoin can push above the 50 EMA market and further to the top of the downtrend channel, then:
“In my opinion, that would basically confirm that the bear market has ended.”
The support is pegged at the 200-week EMA, which as current price movements go, stands at $3,300 and if Bitcoin would edge below this point, thereby failing to end outside the triangle, the trend would reverse.
As the cryptocurrency markets turned for the better on February 8, Tom Lee listed out nine incremental improvements in the landscape that will push cryptocurrency prices upwards. In it, he added that the value of the US Dollar is expected to fall, institutional investors will see institutional grade custody solutions and top exchanges like Binance will add credit-cards to their offerings. All this and more, according to Tom Lee and his team at Fundstrat, will push Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies upwards in 2019.
Some Twitter users were not very hopeful, despite Lee’s prediction. Carlin Lee tweeted:
“Rattling around in a downward trend channel is bullish? I think not.”
Tim Les, tweeted:
“it doesn’t matter if you’re bullish if there are no buyers.”
The post Fundstrat’s Thomas Lee: Bitcoin [BTC] bearish market will transcend into a bullish one in 2019 appeared first on AMBCrypto.
Source: AMB Crypto

Crypto Pioneer Mark Jeffrey is Sure that Bitcoin will Reach $250k, and Here’s Why

CoinSpeaker

Crypto Pioneer Mark Jeffrey is Sure that Bitcoin will Reach $250k, and Here’s Why

Bitcoin pioneer, Mark Jeffrey, who published “Bitcoin Explained Simply” (2013) and “The Case For Bitcoin” (2015), bets that Bitcoin will multiply surpass the earlier highs seen towards the end of December 2017.

Crypto Pioneer Mark Jeffrey is Sure that Bitcoin will Reach $250k, and Here’s Why

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Source: CoinSpeaker

Fundstrat: Bitcoin Fundamentals “Should” Turn Positive Over 2019

While 2018’s lethargic crypto market crawl has continued into early-2019, save for Friday’s sudden buy-side influx, analysts have begun to express optimism. Case in point, Fundstrat Global Advisors, a New York-headquartered investment advisory outfit, expressed why the outlook for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could improve over 2019.
Fundstrat Expects Bitcoin Fundamentals To Improve
In a recent tweet outlining the premise of a company report, Thomas Lee, the co-founder of Fundstrat, expressed why cryptocurrencies’ prospects could move from “negative” to decidedly “positive” over the course of 2019. Lee & Co., who called fundamentals “convergence trends,” laid out a normal of macro, technical, fiat-to-crypto inflows, blockchain technology, and equity trends to back their analysis.

CRYPTO: we see 9 incremental improvements in the landscape that ultimately support higher prices.
See below… pic.twitter.com/7DSrfVjkoi
— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) February 8, 2019

Firstly, Fundstrat expects for the U.S. dollar to weaken over the coming months, thus catalyzing a potentially inverse trend in the Bitcoin price. The advisors also expect emerging market equities to outperform American stocks, bonds, and similar vehicles, again creating a likely positive environment for cryptocurrencies, which are often classified as “risk-on” and non-correlated assets.
This will all be underscored by Fundstrat’s belief that institutional investors, especially notable endowments, will continue to trickle in during 2019, especially due to developments in cryptocurrency custody and over-the-counter trading. Fundstrat’s research team also noted that an influx of consumer interest may be catalyzed by Binance’s recent addition of credit card purchasing capabilities, the Lightning Network’s achievement of “reaching critical mass,” and potential initial public offerings from Bitmain, Bitfury, and other crypto industry giants. And with all this in mind, it was concluded:
“We have detailed the trends of factors affecting crypto in 2019, ahd [there are] more positive than negative developments… Overall, the outlook for Bitcoin should improve over the course of 2019.”
This report comes just weeks after Lee took to Fox News‘ business segment to quip why $25,000 is a “fair valuation” for Bitcoin.
What About Bitcoin’s Technicals?
While Lee & Co. seem to be in the state of mind that the value proposition that cryptocurrencies pose will gain traction in 2019, from a technical standpoint, Fundstrat is more bearish than bullish.

According to a research note from the investment group’s Rob Sluymer, obtained by Bloomberg, the technical setup for altcoins is looking a tad dismal. As reported by NewsBTC on an earlier date, CryptoFX’s large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap advance/decline indices are on track to retest their mid-December 2018 lows, especially due to their supposed “vulnerability to a pending breakdown.”
Sluymer, the head of technical research at Fundstrat, went on to paint a foreboding picture for Bitcoin. While he was hesitant to mention specific time frames in a bid to stay cohesive with company policy, the former RBC Managing Director stated that a price point to watch for BTC will be $3,100. In his eyes, if the cryptocurrency breaks under its Q4 lows at ~$3,150, a move to $2,270 wouldn’t be unlikely, as that would indicate that the market hasn’t found a long-term floor just yet.
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2019 Will Be Even Worse for Cryptos, Believes Famous Californian Professor

CoinSpeaker

2019 Will Be Even Worse for Cryptos, Believes Famous Californian Professor

While some remains optimistic about the current market decline, crypto-naysayers take this occasion to sentence Bitcoin and the rest of crypto-waggon to death.

2019 Will Be Even Worse for Cryptos, Believes Famous Californian Professor

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Source: CoinSpeaker

Crypto Year in Review: How Bitcoin (BTC) Performed in 2018 and What Hides in 2019?

CoinSpeaker

Crypto Year in Review: How Bitcoin (BTC) Performed in 2018 and What Hides in 2019?

On December 17th, 2017 the price of Bitcoin neared $20,000. Optimists hoped that was just the beginning. They were right: that was the beginning.. but maybe the beginning of end? Check out how BTC performed in 2018 and what is likely to hide in 2019.

Crypto Year in Review: How Bitcoin (BTC) Performed in 2018 and What Hides in 2019?

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Source: CoinSpeaker

Ex-Goldman Exec Believes the Crypto Market Will Thrive in the Long-term

CoinSpeaker

Ex-Goldman Exec Believes the Crypto Market Will Thrive in the Long-term

An Ex-Goldman is among the few notable investors remaining positive on the crypto markets. He holds his ground in spite of other institutional investors exiting the crypto space.

Ex-Goldman Exec Believes the Crypto Market Will Thrive in the Long-term

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Source: CoinSpeaker

“Crypto valuation Models Are Just A Bit Backward” says Michael Casey

Crypto markets are in the mood of their own and as one thinks the floor is reached, the markets plunge again. With markets collapsing without an actual change in the fundamentals of Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies, all discussion has now moved to one question – “What is the fair value of Bitcoin”. Recently Michael Casey, a well-recognized author, and the co-founder of Network Effects Media spoke to a media outlet saying that valuation models used to valuing cryptos and bitcoin are wrong.
Casey concentrates on valuation methods while others discuss fair values
Michael Casey, a well-recognized author, and the co-founder of Network Effects Media said in an interview with a media outlet, that the crypto market’s valuation models are “all just a bit backward.”  Expanding on what he meant, Casey explained that cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies are foreseen as a way to disintermediate or remove intermediates from the ecosystem and curb centralization of entities. But when it comes to valuing these crypto assets, the models used are very similar to the once that are used for traditional markets instruments.
He added, “we’re continually denoting BTC’s value in dollar signs, rather than the iconic Bitcoin”.  In other words, he said that much of the crypto market is focused on a positive exit into fiat, rather than maintaining the skin in the game. Casey added that this causes incentives to get misaligned, as investors look for profit, instead of overthrowing the often-corrupt powers that be
Casey is not the only one that is now looking at the valuation of cryptocurrencies. Recently Stephen Pair, CEO of the world-renowned crypto-friendly payment processor BitPay, spoke to CNBC Squawk Box where he mentioned that the Bitcoin Price is currently driven by speculations and is very divergent from what its actual price could be.
Another prominent crypto bull which spoke about the valuation and fair market value of Bitcoin is Tome Lee. The Fundstrat Global Advisors Head of Research recently stated that the current market conditions for Bitcoin are wrong and he believes BTC’s fair value is between $13,800 and $14,800.
“Bitcoin’s fair value, given the number of active wallet addresses, usage per account and factors influencing supply, is between $13,800 and $14,800”. – Lee said to Bloomberg
He further added that “Fair value is significantly higher than the current price of Bitcoin. In fact, working backward, to solve for the current price of Bitcoin, this implies crypto wallets should fall to 17 million from 50 million currently.”
Another crypto enthusiast Morgan Creek’s Anthony Pompliano, in his recent post, had spoken about several parameters that Bitcoin fundaments were growing and this market meltdown was currently not justified

Bitcoin's fundamentals are strengthening. Don't let the price distract you.
The best performing asset in the last 10 years isn't going anywhere.https://t.co/avY2WrA1q0
— Pomp 🌪 (@APompliano) November 30, 2018

 
In his post, Pompliano also mentioned to his readers that
“Don’t be distracted by the noise. Focus on the fundamentals. Bitcoin isn’t going anywhere.”
With so much spoken about valuation and fair prices no one actually knows why the markets collapsed or where the floor for this fall is. But one thing is definite Bitcoin usage is getting wider as more and more people are aware of it. Will the market bounce back, well let’s wait and watch
What do you think is the bottom of this market? What do you think will the next trigger for this market? Do let us know your views on the same.
The post “Crypto valuation Models Are Just A Bit Backward” says Michael Casey appeared first on Coingape.
Source: CoinGape

Bitcoin [BTC]: Tone Vays “couldn’t disagree more” with Tom Lee’s valuation

Tone Vays, former Wall Street Risk Analyst and Bitcoin enthusiast/influencer, spoke about the bear market and how Bitcoin is performing and gave his opinion on probable outcomes for Bitcoin in the near future.
Vays referred to the monthly chart of Bitcoin said that this was the worst that Bitcoin has ever seen ever since the start of 2018.
Furthermore, Vays said that there was a chance for the monthly RSI to reach and possibly cross the 30-line, referring to an oversold market for Bitcoin.
Source: TradingView
He continued:
“That would mean a sub $1000 Bitcoin or a $1,000 Bitcoin for a year, like $1,200 over a year, that’s what it would take to get the RSI to be below 30”
In the live stream, Vays said that he disagrees with Tom Lee’s valuation of Bitcoin which is in the range of $13,000 – $14,000.
Vays said:
“I just saw links to an article about Tom Lee today morning telling you that Bitcoin’s valuation is still above like $15,000. I couldn’t disagree more. I think Bitcoin’s current valuation at best $5,000 and I could be a little over-optimistic on that.”
According to Tom Lee, the fair price of Bitcoin should lie between $13,800 and $14,800 and if the Bitcoin wallet users approach 7% of the total number of users of Visa, which is at a massive $4.5 billion, then the fair price of a Bitcoin would be $150,000.
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee said:
“Given we are so close to year-end, we are not providing any updates to near-term price objectives—read this as, we are tired of people asking us about target prices.”
Apart from his fair price prediction, Lee recently slashed his year-end prediction for Bitcoin from a prior $25,000 to $15,000 because Bitcoin had fallen below the break-even point.
There was a huge uproar in the community about Tom Lee’s opinion which led many prominent people to talk about it, and mostly disagree with it.
Nouriel Roubini tweeted in reply to Tom Lee’s fair price for Bitcoin asking people to “keep digging deeper in that cesspool”.

Kevin Marek replied to Nouriel Roubini saying:
“What is your actual argument against protocols that enable value transfer online in a trust less manner? Calling things shitcoins makes you look much less like an economist and more uneducated with every post.”
Another user, CryptoRev added:
When will you stop regretting your decision of not investing in Bitcoin at 1 usd?
You still have chance to invest in Btc else we will see your post in 2020
“Bitcoin down 35% in a week trading at 135000 Usd told these crypto traders to stay away”
The post Bitcoin [BTC]: Tone Vays “couldn’t disagree more” with Tom Lee’s valuation appeared first on AMBCrypto.
Source: AMB Crypto

Bitcoin [BTC]’s prices are significantly lower than its $13000-$14000 fair price, says Tom Lee

Fundstrat’s Thomas Lee aka Tom Lee, well-known for his predictions on Bitcoin in the crypto-community spoke about the current market for cryptocurrencies and more specifically about Bitcoin and year-end predictions.
As reported by CNBC, Thomas Lee, former J.P. Morgan Chief of Equity Strategist said:
“Given we are so close to year-end, we are not providing any updates to near-term price objectives—read this as, we are tired of people asking us about target prices.”
Lee, in his recent appearance in the crypto-community, said that he was done with giving out year-end predictions but instead updated his opinion on what the fair price for Bitcoin should be.
As per the International Accounting Standards Board, fair value is the price received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants on a certain date, typically for use on financial statements over time.
To further simplify it, fair value is the rational and unbiased estimate of the potential market price of a good service or asset.
Lee calculated the fair price of Bitcoin with the number of active wallet users in mind and said that it is “significantly” higher than the actual price. Considering the number of active wallet users are 50 million, Lee thinks that the active wallet users have to be reduced to $17 million to justify the current price of Bitcoin.
Moreover, Lee thinks the fair price of Bitcoin should lie between $13,800 and $14,800, but the current price is hovering in the $3,300 range.
It might be true to some extent as the price of Bitcoin has collapsed vastly in the last two months breaking major supports at ~$6,500 and now at ~$3600. The prices are getting closer to $3,000 mark as the end of the year approaches.
If the Bitcoin wallet users approach 7% of the total number of users of Visa, which is at a massive $4.5 billion, then according to Lee’s regression model, the fair price of a Bitcoin would be $150,000.
Bitcoin has suffered a massive decline of 82% in its price and market cap since its all-time high in December 2017 and the total market cap of all-cryptocurrencies have also declined by an approximate of 87% and is currently hovering at $111 billion.
Lee said that investors will likely stay bearish until Bitcoin remains below the 200-day moving average and that technicals play an important role in cryptocurrency trading.
In his recent appearance on CNBC, Lee cut his year-end prediction for 2018 from $25,000 to $15,000 and substantiated it with the research done by the Fundstrat’s data science team which included calculating a break-even point. Lee later changed his prediction to $15,000.
A Twitter user J. Braunstein commented:
“A prudent speculator never argues with the tape. Markets are never wrong, opinions often are.” – Jesse Livermore
Another user BitHoncho replied:
“Oh well .. he was wrong about $ES targets as well .. But always called on cnbc .. It should be @winternomics who should be there”
Jersey replied BitHoncho saying:
“Value is scarce man, even if Kaz was up there, most wont take in the info and judge the mask or his grammar, look at the 99% nitpicking Musk’s tweets #RuleOfTheAtom”
The post Bitcoin [BTC]’s prices are significantly lower than its $13000-$14000 fair price, says Tom Lee appeared first on AMBCrypto.
Source: AMB Crypto