Sally Ho's Technical Analysis 20 August 2019

Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) orbited the psychologically-important 10,000 figure early in today’s Asian session as traders attempted to build upon the positive upward momentum that saw traders reclaim the 10,000 figure last weekend.  The 10,508.20 level emerged as an important one late in the weekend when traders tested it, an area that represents the 38.2% retracement of the move from 5,072.01 to 13,868.44.  Bids have recently emerged at multiple important technical levels over recent trading sessions, and this is indicative of a stronger upward bias.
These levels include the 9,470.23 area, representing the 50% retracement of the move from 5,072.01 to 13,868.44. Additional buying pressure also emerged around the 9,765.93 area, followed by Bids around the 9,765.93 level and the 10,087.62 area. Chartists are observing some upward price pressures around the 10,955.39 and 11,262.06 areas.  Additional selling pressure is expected between the 11,262 and 11,439 areas.
Price activity is nearest the 200-bar MA (4-hourly) at 10,516.18 and the 50-bar MA (Hourly) at 10,287.61.
Technical Support is expected around 9,765.93/ 9,265.49/ 8,919.72 with Stops expected below.
Technical Resistance is expected around 10,638.50/ 10,810.13/ 11,136.82 with Stops expected above.
On 4-Hourly chart, SlowK is Bullishly above SlowD while MACD is Bullishly above MACDAverage.
On 60-minute chart, SlowK is Bullishly above SlowD while MACD is Bearishly below MACDAverage.
 
Ethereum
Ethereum (ETH/USD) continued its advance towards the psychologically-important 200.00 figure early in today’s Asian session as traders sought to push market activity above this level for the first time since 14 August.  The 183.33 area emerged as an important one last week as buying activity emerged around that level, representing the 23.6% retracement of the move from 515.88 to 80.60.  Traders then succeeded in pushing the rate above the 100-bar MA (hourly) and traders then tested the 200-bar MA (hourly).
Chartists note that the 50-bar MA (4-hourly) emerged as a technical barrier during the move higher, and traders are attempting to establish some buying pressure above this level. The 100-bar MA (4-hourly) and 200-bar MA (4-hourly) are also upside price targets that traders will need to challenge, along with the 209.75 area that represents the 23.6% retracement of the move from 627.83 to 80.60.  Selling pressure and Offers are anticipated between the 217.55 and 220.40 areas.
Price activity is nearest the 50-bar MA (4-hourly) at 197.73 and the 200-bar MA (Hourly) at 197.65.
Technical Support is expected around 178.47/ 165.25/ 157.28 with Stops expected below.
Technical Resistance is expected around 201.38/ 206.18/ 217.55 with Stops expected above.
On 4-Hourly chart, SlowK is Bullishly above SlowD while MACD is Bullishly above MACDAverage.
On 60-minute chart, SlowK is Bullishly above SlowD while MACD is Bullishly above MACDAverage.
Source: Crypto Daily

How Europe is Driving Adoption

According to a poll by bitFlyer that sampled the thoughts and feeling of 10,000 participants across ten different countries in Europe has revealed a high percentage of Europeans who claim that cryptocurrencies aren’t just a ‘phase’.
Bullish in Europe
According to the details of the bitFlyer Google survey, just over 60 percent of Europeans think that cryptocurrencies will still exist by 2029.
Ten countries were involved in the poll including, France, the UK, Belgium, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Poland, Holland, Italy and Norway. The latter of which showed the highest levels of confidence in cryptocurrencies as 73 percent believe digital currencies will still be around in a decade’s time.
Participants in France have the least confidence in crypto though with only 55 percent thinking that crypto will last another ten years.

On the whole, the results of bitFlyer’s Euro Poll are in line with the emerging sentiment of cryptocurrencies moving from hype to legitimate asset class. Earlier this month, a Twitter poll by IMF showed that more than half of the respondents said that cryptocurrencies will become mainstream within the next five years.
As reported by Bitcoinist:

“Since 2018, there has been a considerable uptick in institutional involvement in the cryptocurrency market. From endowment funds taking investment positions to multinational conglomerates looking to establish vital crypto-based services.”

The growing outlook on the next crypto bull run will occur on the back of a strengthened asset class as against the hype-driven speculative play that characterised the 2017 bull market.
Source: Crypto Daily

Singapore's Fast-Growing Blockchain Industry

In the last few years, the small bustling island of Singapore has emerged as a forerunner in the field of crypto innovation and blockchain technology in Asia. This is primarily fuelled by the support it has received by the government to adopt cutting-edge blockchain technologies, as well as continue research and development in the blockchain arena.
In fact, apart from being at the forefront of the blockchain movement in Asia, Singapore-based blockchain projects are also creating a global impact.
A few reasons for Singapore’s accelerated blockchain growth can be attributed to its free market economy, tax framework, stable socio-political setting and ease of doing business — all of these factors make it easier for founders to launch their companies in Singapore.
To propel this further, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), the central authority responsible for regulating the laws of the financial sector has released a guide to digital token offerings to encourage adoption of blockchain technologies and is taking an open approach to categorize digital tokens such as utility, payment and security tokens.
MAS recognizes blockchain’s potential impact on the economy of the country and is therefore proactively encouraging projects to facilitate better systems.
It has recently launched Ubin, a project centered towards creating solutions for payment settlements and securities. Another example is  Tribe Accelerator, a government-backed blockchain accelerator based out of Singapore and branching throughout South East Asia. 
In order to create a wider impact, the Singapore government continues its efforts to foster a broader platform to support start-up blockchain-based collaborations in the country.

Another such initiative is Blockchain Summit Singapore, a 1-day conference and exhibition in Suntec, dedicated solely to the business of blockchain and distributed ledger technology (DLT).
The conference will feature promising blockchain start-ups, 80 industry-leading speakers, keynote presentations and panel debates.
Some of the keynote speakers include thought leaders in the blockchain industry such as, Celine Le Cotonnec, Chief Data Officer, AXA Insurance Singapore, Guilhem Vincens, Head of Change and Innovation APAC, ABN AMRO and Vic Tham, CEO, Quantum Energy Asset Management & Portfolio Manager of QEX Fund.
“Singapore Blockchain Summit is going to be great, I’m really looking forward to it,” Alexander Von Kaldenberg, Director of Asia Marketing for Swiss-based blockchain start-up, Velas, says. “Singapore specializes in blockchain for business and this provides us with a fantastic environment to present the innovations that Velas has developed.”
Von Kaldenberg will also be speaking at the event, with Velas featured as a gold sponsor.
Since Singapore has positioned itself as a dynamic and strategic blockchain hotbed in the Asian region, it’s only fitting that Velas and other crypto-industry start-ups see it as an excellent platform to showcase their contributions to the rapidly growing blockchain market.
Other key sectors  that are leveraging the growing acceptance of blockchain in Singapore include, insurance companies employing blockchain technology to achieve transparency using smart contracts, Singaporean Airlines Krishflyer allowing users to maintain a block-chain based digital wallet for loyalty and payment programmes, and The National University of Singapore incorporating blockchain technology classes to their curriculum in partnership with IBM researchers.
With the crypto-market gaining more strength in this region, many more industries and start-ups are bound to carve their niche in this ever-expanding market.
Source: Crypto Daily

The Week: Bakkt Cleared for Launch and yet More ETF Delays

Over the past week, Bakkt announced it will be launching its bitcoin futures platform on September 23 following several delays, Coinbase acquired institutional custody business Xapo for $55 million, the SEC delayed its decision on three Bitcoin ETF proposals until autumn, Binance paid out a bounty to a white hat hacker who hijacked its Binance Jersey Twitter account, and a Florida federal judge called out inconsistencies in Craig Wright’s court statements in the Kleiman vs Wright case.
Source: Crypto Globe

Ethereum (ETH) Is On The Verge Of A Game Changing Crash

Ethereum (ETH) broke past $200 in an impressive run up yesterday as the price shot straight past the 50 EMA on the 4H time frame breaching the 38.2% fib retracement level from the local top. RSI on the 4H chart for ETH/USD shows that the price is now trading under overbought conditions but if circumstances were different, this may not have stopped it from rallying higher. However, the reality on ground is that Ethereum (ETH) remains in bear trend despite the recent bullish move. The descending triangle that ETH/USD is trading in could end in a lot of blood especially because the next crash is going to be a game changer. The decline below $180 will convince a lot of traders that they have been wrong about the bear market being over or altcoin season being around the corner.

The ICO space is full of scams that are just ready to unfold. When the proverbial hits the fan, we are going to see a lot of these ‘projects’ declare bankruptcy and all of that is going to terribly hurt the altcoin market and coins like Ethereum (ETH) that have been used for such scams are going to be under fire from regulators and investors alike. It is true that there are some very hardworking teams in this space that really want to see this space succeed and they are more interested in the tech than the money but the fact remains that unregulated markets like these attracts all kinds of people and in the absence of meaningful regulation, investors are not protected which means founders of these scam ‘projects’ can just get away with anything. Of course, the end result of all that is that it brings a bad name to the entire space.

I’m a strong believer in the idea that news events or similar developments follow what is happening on the charts. So, if the price is poised for a decline, we will find a reason that supports the crash. Most of the times, it is either an exchange hack, regulatory crackdown or a ban. If we take a look at the daily chart for ETH/BTC, there is no way this looks bullish in any way. The price remains within a descending channel and it has yet to break past the trend line resistance.
Conditions are now ripe for Ethereum (ETH) to begin its next decline which I believe will have game changing consequences. Confidence  in altcoins is going to decrease further and when that happens more of the scams in this space will get exposed which is going to induce more fear in the market that will in turn hasten the inevitable which is Ethereum (ETH) falling to a price of $60 or lower toward the end of this bear market. There are a lot of people that are even more bearish calling for Ethereum (ETH) to go to zero but I don’t think that could happen. I wouldn’t discount a move to a single digit price but I don’t see ETH/USD going to zero despite all its flaws, shortcoming and unreasonable valuation. 
Source: Crypto Daily

Spanish Banking Giant To Connect Ripple Remittance Service To Latin America

The use of Ripple technology is being expanded by the Spanish banking behemoth, Santander. 
Currently undergoing the construction of a “payment corridor” that would allow customers in Katin America to send money to the US for free and instantly through One Pay FX. 
Whereas it’s only an option available to customers residing in the UK and Spain (who can send money over to the States via One Pay FX), the bank wouldn’t reveal how many Latin American nations it plans to connect to the corridor, Santander serves Chile, Mexico, Uruguay and Brazil.
In a similar light to Santander’s DLT efforts to date, the new payment capability won’t involve the cryptocurrency that Ripple periodically sells to fund its projects, XRP which will in turn power it separate Rapid product.
In 2018, Santander introduced One Pay FX in four nations that happen to account for more than half of the bank’s profits including, Spain, the UK, Poland and the aforementioned Brazil.

Cedric Menager, CEO of One Pay FX, said that this is gaining traction:

“Customers who were not doing international transfers are now using the service, customers who were using international transfer are now doing it more, and customers who had gone to use fintech competition have come back because of the One Pay offering.”

The Spanish bank hasn’t given any details in regards to its transaction volumes for One Pay FX, Santander said those volumes tripled from January this year to June and volumes for Spain increased by more than a hundred percent.
Menager said that expanding One Pay FX would mean a bigger change for some countries in South America, who will go from making international transfers in branches to instant online payments, than for European countries.

“The international payment experience in the Latin American markets is even less evolved than in the European markets,” he said. “There are even parts of the Latin American market where it’s almost impossible to do an online international payment.”

He later went onto say:

“International payments is a way for us to acquire customers having a painful experience with traditional banking.”

Source: Crypto Daily

Bitcoin (BTC) Manipulation Reaches New Highs As Turning Point Nears

Bitcoin has broken above the bearish pennant in an unprecedented turn of events. This move was quite surprising considering there was confluence of resistance zones and also because bearish pennants are usually broken to the downside. If we take a look at the definition of a bear pennant, it is pennant that results in the price breaking to the downside soon as it exits it. A pennant is a continuation pattern. So, if the price is going up before it enters a pennant, it is likely to keep going up after it exits the pennant. Similarly, when the price is going down as it enters a pennant; it is likely to keep going down after it breaks out of the pennant. This has already happened two times in the recent past but this time the price has invalidated classical technical analysis because the price is now at a turning point and the stakes are too high.

If we take a look at the 4H chart for BTC/USD, we can see that the price just shot past the 50 EMA. This happened because it was too obvious and a lot of bears had their stops just above the 50 EMA in anticipation of the pennant breaking to the downside. Needless to say, most of them were shaken out and I think this is what this move was all about. This is in no way an indication of real buying interest in the market. I think it is just manipulation because the whales had two pronged objectives here. They wanted to shake out the bears and they want to trap the bulls that took this is a sign of a bullish reversal. They are going to give the longs more time to stack up and then they are going to ‘help’ the market do the inevitable and a lot of these bulls will be either liquidated or left holding the bags.

It is interesting to note that the last time Bitcoin (BTC) invalided a bearish pennant was in December, 2018. I think the fact that we have seen a move similar to December, 2018 is not just coincidence. Over the next few days you will find posts on Crypto Twitter saying that “when Bitcoin invalidated the bear pennant last time, it ended up rallying hard as it ended up shooing past $13k.” This is what the market makers want them to believe. They want them to believe that they will come to their rescue again to ‘help’ the price rally higher again with Tether pumps. This is why some analysts and traders are now talking about the “bull flag” on the daily chart but they won’t go back in time to see how that ended back in 2017-18 when everyone was expecting that “bull flag” to lead to the price rallying towards $50,000. I think times like these calls for less greed and more caution. If you want to protect your investment, this might be the time to do it, because in the upcoming days and weeks, it might be a little too late.  
Source: Crypto Daily

Experts Give Their Thoughts On Blockchain And FaceApp Privacy On User Data

Over the past few months, you have probably heard something about an mobile application called FaceApp. This app blew up all over social media so if you haven’t heard about it, not only am I really surprised but here’s a quick recap.
FaceApp is a Russian developed mobile app from Wireless Lab which allowed people to take photos of themselves and make themselves look old, young or as the opposite gender. Like all popular internet tends, FaceApp brought up a lot of controversy in regards to users who uploaded their selfies for editing. 
Thanks to Artificial Intelligence, FaceApp can edit user’s images that they upload to the application. The app only became mainstream popular this year despite being released since 2017.
Faceapp has denied selling or sharing data from users without permission though. Going off an article from CoinTelegraph, as it states in the fifth section of Faceapp’s terms of use, you give the Russian application the right to do whatever they want with images you upload to the site.

“You grant FaceApp a perpetual, irrevocable, nonexclusive, royalty-free, worldwide, fully-paid, transferable sub-licensable license to use, reproduce, modify, adapt, publish, translate, create derivative works from, distribute, publicly perform and display your User Content and any name, username or likeness provided in connection with your User Content in all media formats and channels now known or later developed, without compensation to you.”

Blockchain
So where are we going with this and what does it have to do with blockchain?

Well, a couple of experts were asked whether blockchain-based dApp could be much better for user privacy and security. Here are a few of their responses:
CEO of Muckr.AI and board member of Blockchain for Impact at the United Nations General Assembly, Susan Oh said:

“Oh, for sure DApps can be better for privacy and security — if they work, and they work for more than 50 people at a time! Scaling vs. security is a classic dilemma. Privacy vs. security is the other one. My question would be: Why does the world need another app/DApp? Why aren’t you building infrastructure and interoperability toward intelligent decentralization, personal agency and transparency?
I guess DApps could in an ideal world — but honestly, I’m not seeing useful things work in a decentralized way as much as I’d like.”

Board member at NYU Blockchain, Timothy Paolini said:

“Blockchains are built around the principles of decentralization, removing the single point of failure risk (think Equifax servers) and cutting out unnecessary third parties by establishing a more direct, peer-to-peer network. This also maintains your privacy and control of your data from third-party apps as data rests at the protocol instead of the application layer. 
For something like FaceApp, this means you could temporarily grant access to your photo stored on the blockchain in order to use its fun filters, but FaceApp wouldn’t be able to maintain a copy”

Source: Crypto Daily

Bitcoin (BTC) Rally Comes To An End As Price Runs Into Strong Resistance

Bitcoin (BTC) made an impressive rally in the past 24 hours but that rally has now come to an end as the price has run into a strong resistance at the 38.2% fib retracement level at the $10.691 level. This is a strong resistance level but it is important to note that the price is currently trading above the 50 day EMA. It shot up past the 21 day EMA as well but it soon retraced below it and is now expected to close the day below both the 38.2% fib retracement level as well as the 21 day EMA. That would formally mark the end of this bullish advance to the upside as further downside follows in the days and weeks ahead.

It is becoming increasingly clear that there is not enough bullish momentum for BTC/USD to rally past the 38.2% fib retracement level towards the top of the descending triangle. The most likely scenario is that the price is not going to rally to the top of the descending triangle and end up crashing below it to find a temporary bottom around in the low $8,000s. This could pave the way for a rally to the upside but investors need to be careful as this move will tilt the balance in favor of the bears and mark the beginning of a more brutal correction. Recently, the Token Plus exit scammed siphoned off more than $3 billion dollars of their victims money. Now that is an obvious exit scam where the team just runs away with your money. However, there are other more organized scams in this space that are yet to unfold.

Amateur con artists run away with investors’ funds but those that are more skilled in the game try to do this Bernie Madoff and Elizabeth Holmes style. They try to sell you a dream and a hope and they dump on you while you buy. Sounds a bit far-fetched? Just do a comparison of market cap and coin supply of most of the ICOs. I know it is going to be hard in some cases to see what time insiders bought and sold but even a look at token supply should tell you what time the founders were dumping tokens on their investors.
In my days as a penny stocks trader, I have seen all kinds of things but usually it is a company pretending to be big. They do not necessarily have the wrong intentions; they just want to get the money to grow. That was wrong too but it comes nowhere close to what we have here. If we take a look at the 4H chart for BTC/USD, we can see that the bearish pennant has been broken to the upside. This is a prime example of a fake out. Market makers are fighting tooth and nail to get traders to buy those coins, preferably on margin so they can dump on them in the weeks ahead. It is important to note that Bitcoin (BTC) could still have a future long term but at this point we are a long way from the end of this bear market just yet.     
Source: Crypto Daily

Ethereum (ETH) Bulls Are Fighting A Lost Battle Hoping For Altcoin Season

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are fighting a battle and that battle is to prove to the world that Bitcoin (BTC) could be a good hedge during times of crisis and that it can be a store of value. That may be considered a lost battle as well but not as lost as the one Ethereum (ETH) bulls are fighting and in this analysis we will see why. First of all, while Bitcoin (BTC) is hailed as digital gold by some, Ethereum (ETH) is not digital anything. It is just a smart contracts platform that derives its valuation from the high number of useless ICOs that have been accepting ETH as the primary payment method. So, if everyone was buying ETH to partake in ICOs, it is not surprising to see how Ethereum (ETH) became the second largest coin by market capitalization.

Ethereum (ETH) still has an unjustifiable market capitalization and the price still remains in a downtrend. If we take a look at the 1H chart for ETH/USD, it has run into the 61.8% fib retracement level as well as a strong trend line resistance at the same time. Meanwhile, its RSI has shot past 70 and it is trading in a bear flag that could break to the downside anytime now. In the recent past when its RSI was above 70, it was followed by large moves to the downside. The same is expected to happen this time but not just because it has rallied to far too fast. Ethereum (ETH) has run into a confluence of resistance zones and is now in no position to rally higher from here. This means that the bears are better positioned to take control and drag the price below $180 resulting in ETH/USD forming a lower low.

If we take a look at the 4H chart for Ethereum Dominance (ETH.D), we can see that it already broke below our fib circle and is now trying to test the last broken ring again. However, before it could do that, it got stopped at a strong resistance around the 7.72 mark and is now expected to decline further. One thing that is very important to note here is that when we are in a bull market or an altcoin season, Ethereum (ETH) dominance rises not falls because cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP) and Litecoin (LTC) outperform Bitcoin (BTC) most of the time during a bull market. 
The fact that Ethereum Dominance (ETH.D) is in a downtrend tells us that there is more downside to come for the market. A lot of popular influencers on Crypto Twitter have recently changed their tone but they won’t admit that they were wrong and we are still in a bear market. I think the next few months will make that clear to everyone when Ethereum (ETH) falls to a double digit price and ends up falling below the $80 mark to find its true bottom towards the end of this bear market.
Source: Crypto Daily