Bitcoin On-Chain Momentum Bullish Again, Traders May Push Prices Higher

While some analysts are still expecting Bitcoin (BTC) to fall further, it appears that fundamentals and on-chain metrics are starting to imply bulls have the upper hand.
Related Reading: Bitcoin CME Futures Gaps Are Filled With 95% Certainty, But Trading Them Is Risky
Bitcoin Preparing to Head Higher Ahead of Halving
Adaptive Capital partner Willy Woo recently noted that on-chain momentum, which the popular analyst has long claimed is correlated with Bitcoin’s macro price trends, is “crossing into bullish” territory after a multi-month downturn.
Woo didn’t give the name of the indicator he was using or the indicator’s details, as “they’re proprietary” to his fund, though the on-chain analyst asserted that investor momentum is starting to turn bullish.
With this in mind, he asserted that the “bottom is most likely in,” meaning that any move lower than the $6,500 plunge “will be just a wick in the macro view.” He added that the unnamed indicator also implies that cryptocurrency investors will start to front-run the impending “halving,” the block reward reduction that will be taking place in May 2020.

On-chain momentum is crossing into bullish. Prep for halvening front running here on in. Can't say what this indicator is, as it's proprietary to @AdaptiveFund, but it tracks investor momentum. The bottom is mostly likely in, anything lower will be just a wick in the macro view.
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) December 7, 2019

Woo isn’t the only one noticing that BTC’s on-chain metrics are starting to favor bulls.
Philip Swift, the founder of cryptocurrency analytics site Look Into Bitcoin, recently posted a 10-part thread in which he noted that Bitcoin’s price bias remains positive due to a confluence of factors.
One such factor was that Bitcoin’s Network Momentum indicator, which tracks the movement of coins to determine the usage of the network, has begun to trend higher, bouncing off bear market levels. This is something often seen six to 10 weeks prior to the beginning of a bull market, Swift remarked.

4/ Also keep an eye on Bitcoin Network Momentum
At this point in prior cycles, we saw rapid increases in on-chain BTC volumes for 6-10wks b4 bull market started
Worth watching for now to see if this repeats following recent uptick@woonomic version with coinmetrics data is
— Philip Swift (@PositiveCrypto) December 5, 2019

There’s also Glassnode, a crypto-centric on-chain intelligence firm, which noted just recently that their metrics suggest that Bitcoin is bottoming and slated to revert higher in a “strong” fashion.
One such metric that Glassnode drew attention to was that the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), the ratio between market cap and realized cap, is “consolidating towards one,” which implies that gains are being realized by crypto asset investors. A reading of one for the ratio often marks a bottom for the cryptocurrency market.
Related Reading: Researcher: Bitcoin is Alive and Well, Price Still in Macro Uptrend
Featured Image from Shutterstock
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Source: New

Here’s the Best Performing Quarter for Bitcoin [BTC] Price Over the Last 6 Years

Like equities and other investments, the performance of cryptocurrencies also changes from quarter to quarter, influenced by different events that take place in the quarter. An analysis by Skew Markets has revealed the top performing and the worst performing quarters in the last 6 years.
A Look Bitcoin’s Quarterly Years Over the Last 6 Years
As per Skew Markets’ analysis, Q2 has seen the positive Bitcoin quarterly returns from 2014 to 2019, except for 2018. The worst performing quarter has been Q1 in these years, except for 2017, and 2019, when Bitcoin price showed growth of 11.21% and 10.34% respectively.

Any reason why Q2 almost always strong for the price of bitcoin?
— skew (@skewdotcom) December 3, 2019

Q2, on the other hand, has shown marked growth in Bitcoin price, except for in 2018, when the majority of the year was characterised by bearishness after the crypto boom of 2017 as the market tumbled from its all-time high. In 2017, the year of Ethereum-based ICOs, Bitcoin price grew from $1,000 to nearly $3,000, recording a whopping 131.47% gain in Q2. The success of the quarter repeated itself in 2019, when Bitcoin price, from $4,000 level at the beginning of quarter, peaked to nearly $14,000 at the end of the quarter.
Q4 has also shown good performance. In 2015, 2016 and 2017, Bitcoin’s quarterly gains were 82.40%, 58.06%, and 226.28% respectively.
Earlier in October, crypto economist and partner and Adaptive Fund, Willy Woo, had also commented on Bitcoin price’s seasonality.

Bitcoin Seasonality:October is profitable 56% of the timeMay is the strongest, profitable 80% of the timeMarch is weakest, profitable only 20% of the time
Data encompasses BTCUSD performance since October 2009, so 10 data samples per month surveyed.
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) October 12, 2019

Skew Market’s findings are in sync with Willy Woo’s comment on Bitcoin’s seasonality where he points out that May is the strongest month for Bitcoin price and March is the weakest.
Why is Q2 High?
The best way to explain why Q2 is the most profitable would be the Reverse “Sell in May and Go Away” trend. A blog by delta exchange explains that the value of US equities usually declines at this time as US investors and traders close their positions before the beginning of the summer holidays. The trend works in reverse when we talk about Bitcoin.
Source: Delta Exchange Blog  
From the chart, it is evident that the reverse “Sell in May, Goa away” trend has worked for Bitcoin during most of the years, except for 2015 and 2018 when Bitcoin price fell. 2017 and 2019 saw record gains as Bitcoin price increased by 60.83% and 58.71% respectively. It is likely that investors, at this time, flock to Bitcoin because of the suppressed prices of equities due to the selling.
Why is Q1 Depressed?
On the other hand, Q1 is likely to have seen mostly negative Bitcoin returns because of two main factors – the reverse January effect and the tax effect.
In January, US equity stock markets are abnormally high due to the New Year and Holiday effect. At this time, Bitcoin has been observed to experience a reverse January effect with suppressed prices. The bearishness of the market may be attributed to the increased attention that the US equity stock markets receive at this time.
Source: Delta Exchange Blog
From 2014 to 2019, 2014 was the only year when Bitcoin had a positive price movement in January. During the remaining years, Bitcoin price plunged between 3% to 30%.
Then in March comes the tax effect. In March, many investors liquidate their Bitcoin holdings to pay taxes.
Source: Delta Exchange Blog
As a result of the tax effect, only 2019 saw positive Bitcoin price movement. From 2014 to 2018, Bitcoin price has been in the red in the month of March.
The holiday season is almost here and now it is time for the Santa Claus rally. Bitcoin price rose consecutively for 3 consecutive years from 2015 to 2017. Now, it remains to be seen if the Santa Claus rally will take place this year or not.
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Source: CoinGape

Bitcoin (BTC) Now Finding a Middle Ground, $3K Was an Overreaction to the Downside – Crypto Analyst

People talking about Bitcoin (BTC) free falling to $3,000 are more unreasonable than those who are bullish, expecting prices to soar back to $20,000. This is the debatable opinion of a leading crypto analyst, CryptoDonalt, who explains that at spot rate, BTC is at a level ground.
Overreactions to Downside and Upside
CryptoDonalt says that the super bull run of 2017-when BTC prices erupted from $200 to $20,000, will take some time to “digest”, and market participants were merely overreacting in both instances when prices tumbled to $3,200 in late 2018 and rallied to $14,000 in mid-2019.

People talking about $3000 right now are being more unreasonable than people talking about new highs.A run from $200 -> $20k is going to take some time to digest.$3k was an overreaction to the downside.$14k was an overreaction to the upside.We're now finding middle ground.
— DonAlt (@CryptoDonAlt) November 21, 2019

To $20,000 or $3,000
Whether BTC will rally or not is a source of discourse. Permabulls and no-coiners are locked in a never-ending argument when opposing camps lay down reasons as to why they are confident of their stance.
However, one thing is clear. Bitcoin will be a go-to digital asset even if the number of organic searches in countries like China, where crypto trading is barred but nonetheless strategic, is dropping, insinuating a fall in interest on a valuable digital asset stocked by Chinese merchants.
A shake out for weak Miners
As it is, BTC is at a crossroads. While there is optimism that it will stabilize, bottom up and edger higher ahead of halving, it will also be marked by the US elections, expected to be hot and highly competitive. So far, its performance has been dismal characterized by low trading volumes.
Bitcoin (BTC) Performance
Week-to-date, the coin is down 10% against the resurgent greenback forcing it below the main support line at $8,000. As traders search for direction and double guess maturing regulators’ position, weak miners are already feeling the brunt of low prices, with some reported to have capitulated as mining simply becomes unprofitable.
BTC Could Slide Back to $4,500 Before Rallying
Discussing Bitcoin’s outlook, Willy Woo, an on-chain analyst, and Tone Vays, a trader, projected that BTC could tumble to as low as $4,500, a 71% fall from this year’s high before prices bottom up as the market prepares for May 2020 halving.

Already Tone Vays is advising his followers in Telegram cautions saying:
“I’m totally back in cash now. There doesn’t seem to be obvious sign of reversal. Going to sit on the sidelines until there is more indication.”
Woo’s and Vays’ assessments could prove to be the antithesis of CryptoDonalt’s position more so if the latter’s analysis came to pass.
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Source: CoinGape

Altcoins Bottomed Against BTC in September Says Analyst; Is Altseason Knocking?

Altcoins are on a short slump against Bitcoin (BTC) at the moment despite gaining ground against the top cryptocurrency in the past few weeks. According to sampled crypto trading analysts, the altseason could be fast approaching as BTC further slumps below $8,000, setting a run downwards towards $7,500 support level.
Across the top 10 cryptocurrencies, only Litecoin (LTC), Bitcoin SV (BSV) –both which have a very high correlation to BTC’s market sentiments – and Binance Coin (BNB) lost significantly against the dollar in the past 24 hours.
‘Altcoins Bottomed in September,’ Analyst Remarks
Looking at the charts, altcoins have had a smooth run against Bitcoin (BTC) since the start of Q4 as seen at the right end tail of the chart below. The unrelenting surge in altcoin value against BTC since September has finally confirmed the bottom for the second fiddle cryptocurrencies against their emperor, BTC.
Source: Woo Charts
Luke Martin, a crypto trading analyst and host on Coinist Podcast, explains that the long bear run across the altcoin market has effectively ended given the vast number of coins showing signals of pulling out of a 6-month downtrend.
“Alts collectively started trending down vs $BTC around April 1st when $BTC broke above $4,000 USD,” Luke wrote on Twitter.
Furthermore, taking four random coins across the top 100 tokens (except the top 10 coins) in market cap, Martin shows a similarity in the overall trend in altcoins against BTC.

Alts collectively started trending down vs $BTC around April 1st when $BTC broke above $4,000.
I marked April 1st on the chart for 4 random alts.
You can see the downtrends on all of them have stopped, for now.
Cycle lows put in around Sept-October.
Worth keeping an eye on!
— Luke Martin (@VentureCoinist) November 20, 2019

Top 10 Cryptos Correlation Surges to Pre-September Highs
Looking at the correlation charts across the top 10 cryptocurrencies (including BTC), the sharp dip in correlation, to 55% in September and to 59% at the end of October, following BTC’s sharp rises , is quickly weaning off.
Image: Skew Markets
Currently at 73.6%, the altcoin movement targets highs last recorded in August which may be good news for the altcoin market. The high correlation across altcoins as technical indicators show a possible uptrend – a pleasing signs for alt bag holders.
An Incoming $28 Billion Boost in Altcoins?
According to a tweet shared on Nov. 12 by Rekt Capital, a featured trader on Forbes, the alt season is in play as coins experience the never-ending Q4 hype cycle once again.

Altcoins are already experiencing the Q4 Altcoin Hype Cycle$BTC $ALTS #Crypto
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) November 12, 2019

The altseason hype is currently gaining heat as investors dump their satoshis to grab some alt bags. Crypto Bombshell on Twitter predicts a possible $28 billion dollar boost in the altcoin market before the end of the year, asking investors to select the right alts to grow their crypto bags.

Altcoin market cap (excludes $btc)
I think we're about to see a $20billion increase in the entire altcoin marketcap. Thats a 28% increase across all your favorite cryptocurrencies. Those with positive FA and TA set ups will yield better returns. Plan wisely.
— CryptoBombshell 🐸🧢 (@cryptobombshell) November 17, 2019

An inverted head and shoulders patters is forming on the total altcoin market cap charts signaling a possible bullish run in the market before 2020 kicks in.
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Source: CoinGape

This indicator Signals a ‘Unique Setup’ for Bitcoin Price Prior to 2020 Halving

Bearish sentiments linger over Bitcoin (BTC) months before halving.
A unique market for Bitcoin miners.
BTC/USD slips further below $8,100 USD as bears firmly in control.

Bitcoin’s price is currently on a free fall, clearing out most of the gains from President Xi’s embracing speech on blockchain, and latest developments shows the halving may not save it. Well, according to one indicator created by Willy Woo, partner at Adaptive Fund, the current sustained downtrend in BTC’s market is set to form a ‘unique’ setup leading to the halving in 2020.
“Never entered a halving period BEARISH”
A look at the “Bitcoin Difficulty Ribbon”, an indicator that tracks the price in relation to the difficulty of the network, paints a really bearish picture on the future price of BTC following May 2020’s block reward halving. The possibility of a first bearish price run leading to the halving is on the cards, strengthened by the recent drop below support levels at $8,500, $8,200 and $8,100.

According to Woo, the current selloff originates from miners pressure to sell months to the halving which presents a unique feel to the halving of BTC in 2020.
“Historically we front run with a BULLISH setup, miner capitulating only after halvening when revenues are slashed.”
A unique market pattern
As the price of Bitcoin plummets, weaker miners are chucked out of the network due to unprofitable business. This leads them to dump their BTC on to the market creating a huge selling pressure as we saw in 2018 during the bear run from all-time high prices the preceding year.
With the markets bullish 6 months prior to the halving in each of the last halving periods, November’s bearish momentum presents a unique setup for BTC leading up to the event.

Well this time around, we have gone $14k->$7.5k and that's killing off weak miners who are dumping and dying. This adds to the already bearish action, so no happy front running 6-momnths out due to sell pressure. You can't draw repeat fractals, the fundamentals are different.
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) November 18, 2019

While only two prior halvings have occurred in the past it would be a stretch to try to correctly predict the future trends of BTC’s price following the halving. Some analysts believe the halving has already been priced in which makes a case for the perma bulls.

Yes. I don't get why this is so hard to understand:
– Most people who are aware of BTC and care to hold it have implicitly priced-in all future halvings
– Most of the world is not sufficiently educated on BTC yet to decide whether to hold. Their buying pressure is not priced in
— Dan McArdle (@robustus) November 18, 2019

However, according to a poll on Twitter by Jameson Loop, CTO at Casa HODL, with over 6000 votes were cast, 68% believe the having will cause yet another explosive spike in BTC’s price.

The Halving
— Jameson Lopp (@lopp) November 17, 2019

BTC/USD short term indicators signals bears firmly in control
Looking at the daily charts, BTC/USD is set to test support levels below $7500 in the coming days, as bears take firm control of the market. Since a death cross formation, the SMA 50 is widening from the SMA 200 signaling a possible drop towards resistance levels at $7,412 USD.
A close below the $7,800 support level will spell doom for the pioneer cryptocurrency signaling a continuation of the bear market since July. Could the miners selling pressure push the price towards the falling channel support?
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Source: CoinGape

Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Indicates that Miners Could get “rekt badly” – Analyst

Bitcoin Mining Difficulty dropped by 7% – the highest drop after a continual rise in 2019.
New age miners and the halving due in May next year are making things difficult for existing miners.
Crypto-analyst, Dovey Wan tweets about the possibility of miners getting “rekt price does not double.”

Bitcoin has had a dominant bull run during Q2 and Q3 of 2019. The price of BTC was well above the break-even cost of mining around $5600-$7000.
Nevertheless, while the miners are still making a profit at current prices, the future seems highly uncertain for them.
Bitcoin [BTC] Mining Difficulty of the Network (Source)

The network is witnessing a capitulation of old miners due to halving and competition from newer miners. Dovey Wan, a crypto-analyst with insights and sources from Chinese miners tweeted,
Bitcoin difficulty sees a major drop first time in 2019, abt 7%
Mainly due to price as lower end rig has shut down, partially due to end of raining szn, when cheaper excessive hydro is no longer widely available
Many miners will rekt badly if price does not double in halving
Current Price Depressing for both New and Old Miners
As halving comes closer, the old miners stand the risk of making taking considerable losses as the price is close to break-even cost currently. Moreover, the newer miners are far more efficient and powerful, eliminating the older miners in large numbers.
Wan also noted that ‘assuming a per hour electricity cost of $0.05 Kwh, the cost of mining 1 BTC on S9 (current) is ~$7000, S17/M20S (new miners) is $3000‘. Hence, a massive shift in the ecosystem seems inevitable.
Moreover, while older miners face profitability issues, new investors have to cover their capital costs and depreciation of miners. Wan noted that “the static payback/break-even for Capex now is over 300 days.” In the current technological environment, a generation of miners lasts only about 3-5 years. Hence, 2020 poses severe risks to the mining business in terms of profitability.
Expert Analyst Suggests Price Should Rise
Expert on-chain crypto analyst, Willy Woo, has charted the effect of changes mining ecosystem on the price of Bitcoin. The mining difficulty ribbon on moving averages had been compressed for a reasonable amount of time.
Mining Difficulty Ribbon (Source: Woobull)
As the weaker miners begin to capitulate, the selling pressure in the market will be reduced. This will effectively increase the price. Moreover, with the increase in price, new miners will be able to cover their cost of depreciation as well.
Nevertheless, the volatility and the risk of global regulations on Bitcoin is tremendous. Hence, if the price does not make a bullish move and bears continue to push the price lower, the miners will stand to face huge losses. They will be closely watching the price action and try to cover their risk soon.
Do you think that the price will support the mining ecosystem, or they will have to bear the cost and stand the risk of shutting down? Please share your views with us. 
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Source: CoinGape

Is Bitcoin [BTC] Running Out of Bullish Arguments Due to Stock Market Rally?

Bitcoin price plunged below $9000 mark yet again. What looked like a possible break above $10,000, has turned into longer days of consolidation.
The narrative for Bitcoin [BTC] investment has taken many shapes and forms over the years. After its failure as a payment mechanism in 2016-2017, the ‘safe haven‘ narrative has become wildly popular.
Kolanovic, JP Morgans’ global head of macro quantitative and derivatives strategy, suggests strong bullish growth of the equity markets.
Gold/USD Daily Price Chart (TradingView)
Gold prices slumped below $1500, at the beginning of the week. As the stock market continues to rally, and the trade tension relaxes and easing of the global monetary policies. Hence, the short term need for a safe haven, which was a strong catalyst in the upward price movement, seems to have slowed down.
Can Halving Keep the Momentum Going?
Bitcoin [BTC] halving is due next year in May. The event will reduce the rewards for mining Bitcoin by half. This represents a massive shift in the supply of the cryptocurrency. It acts as a reliable bullish indicator as the ecosystem looks to keep the price above the break-even price for miners.
Nevertheless, the overall demand for Bitcoin has been questionable with a lack of retail interest. An analyst, KernelTrader noted on Twitter,
$btc has shown one thing, with current supply, the demand just isn’t there to maintain 5 digit prices over a sustained period
Is a small reduction in daily issuance going to suddenly change that?
Based on current demand, I’m not convinced it will
But Bitcoin is More than That
Bitcoin [BTC] competes with gold as a store of value. However, the demand for gold has been subdued by the demand for other reserve currencies like USD, Euros, and YEN. While gold bugs continued to argue against them, the market went towards short term gains.
Hence, in a world where there isn’t a strong demand for sound money, how will Bitcoin present its case? Alex Kruger tweeted,
I think only a very small (loud) minority care or will ever care about “sound money”. Goldbugs did not succeed in getting widespread support for their sound money crusade. Don’t see why Bitcoiners will succeed were gold bugs failed.
Bitcoin investors are now counting on a ‘paradigm shift’ in the economy on a large scale. A fall in the economy of large proportions sounds like the perfectly opportune moment.
While it seems far fetched at the moment, the inflation and rising debts support the cause. Economist Ray Dalio reaffirmed his belief in the fall of the FIAT system under its massive debts.
Willy Woo, a prominent on-chain crypto analyst, replied to Kruger on similar lines,
n the 6000 yr arc of gold as money, this 48 yr reign of fiat is a stop-hunt wick on century candles. Fiat happened before, it’ll happen again far after this candle closes.
Do you think the end of the FIAT era is near as well? Please share your views with us. 
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Source: CoinGape

What Will Be Bitcoin’s Price in 2020? Leading Analyst Explains

Adaptive Fund Partner and analyst, Willy Woo predicts that the Bitcoin bull market will undergo three phases. The three phases namely are accumulation, steady climbing phase, and the bullish breakout phase. 
May 2020 – The Best Time To Play With Bitcoin
Source- Twitter
Willy Woo explained that we are undergoing an accumulation phase, which will pave way for the second phase which will witness a steady climb in Bitcoin price with low volatility. He further said that in the present case scenario, Bitcoin will enter the 2nd phase a few months before May 2020 halving. Wherein, a bullish on chain-structure will walk hand in hand with front running. This will be the best time to play with Bitcoin. 
Source- Twitter
He further said that once Bitcoin price crosses $14k, the second phase of the bull market will start. It is likely that it will happen at the starting of 2020. Furthermore, it will be the best time to stake funds in Bitcoin. 
He further commented on investor behavior which is largely bearish. While the trends continue to be unperturbed for a long time now, he believes a bullish structure shall be visible by next week.  Also, if powered by organic investment, bullish on-chain action can take a month before it ultimately gets reflected in the price. 
A look at Bitcoin Price Trends
Bitcoin appears to be nurturing a bullish momentum towards the end of the European session. Further, the Bitcoin price is displaying a triangular pattern.
Source- Trading View
Tone Vays Suggests A Long-Term Bullish Reversal
Per Tone Vays sequential analysis, the historic break on 25th October signals a long-term bullish reversal. However, it is subject to confirmation with this week’s close.
So I would need to see pretty much $10,000 broken by next week in order to be bullish.
Would Bitcoin price hit $20k by the end of 2020? Let us know, what you think in the comments below!
The post What Will Be Bitcoin’s Price in 2020? Leading Analyst Explains appeared first on Coingape.
Source: CoinGape

Bitcoin [BTC] Macro: Analysts See a Rising Wave of Investments among Millionaires

Gone are the days when Bitcoin used to trade only via cryptocurrency exchanges. In 2019, numerous institutional platforms started providing products and services on digital assets. The development was seen with Custody, Trust funds, trading portals, and derivates market.
Michael Novogratz, the founder of Galaxy Digital, recently reiterated his stand on the institutional interest. Earlier, he had expressed similar views saying they’re coming, but things take time. He stated that institutions tend to follow the funds like Yale, Harward, and Stanford endowments.
Willy Woo, an on-chain crypto analyst, supported the rising interest of high volume investors with credible data. The number of addresses with more than 1,000 Bitcoins has risen linearly since this time around last year.
Number of Bitcoin Addresses with more than 1000 BTC (Source)
Woo seemed to draw similarities between the geeks of Bitcoin’s early days and other high volume investors. He tweeted,
IMO we’re likely in a new renaissance of Bitcoin, this one is powered by capital influx of high net worth investors, while the early one was from the tech savvy who were bootstrapping the network.
Super Bullish.
Bitcoin’s Revised Value Proposition
Bitcoin’s proposition as a store of value is particularly attractive in the current macro-situation. The rising debt crisis and quantitative easing, devaluation of currencies, political tension in Hong-Kong, and even the threat from China’s digital currency. Novogratz said,
We’re in a very strange macro environment… When Greece is raising money at negative interest rates. I look back just in the last five years there 40 emerging market currencies that have devalued more than 40%.
Mati Greenspan has also spoken about Greece, a country which was at the brink of collapse 5 years ago is now raising money at negative interest rates. Greenspan said,
Watching economists on the television this morning try to pass this off as ‘normal’ and ‘sustainable’ is literally making me sick to my stomach.
Moreover, he also suggested that the US must be apprehensive of the Chinese digital currency and why it shouldn’t be totally dismissive of Libra. The Chinese and its counterparts already use Alipay and Wechat to conduct more than 90% of their transactions. A state-powered cryptocurrency could provide a lot of control and dominance to China.
According to him, the need of the hour is the growth of decentralized transactions, led by Bitcoin. He said,
Quite frankly when I look at change and Hong-kong, I see how its gonna end. It’s not gonna end with tanks rolling down the street. It’s gonna end with what they called white terror. That they’re slowly gonna say, you know, that guy doesn’t get credit anymore or that guy doesn’t get jobs anymore.
Do you see the need for decentralization as well? Please share your views with us. 
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Source: CoinGape

NVT: Top and Bottom Indicator Signals Time To Buy Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s network to transactions ratio, or NVT for short, is an indicator developed by crypto analyst Willy Woo as a signal for deterring tops and bottoms of Bitcoin cycles.
A tweaked version of the indicator, one that was designed to filter out private transactions, is now signaling that Bitcoin is in a buy zone – an ideal time for buying Bitcoin at the point of greatest potential financial return.
Indicator That Called Bitcoin’s Recent Top Is Now Signaling Buy
Few crypto analysts have contributed to the overall Bitcoin community as much as Willy Woo. Woo has conducted extensive analysis and has even designed his own indicator for spotting the tops and bottoms of Bitcoin cycles, by looking at the network’s total value to transaction ratio.
The theory is that when Bitcoin’s total network value outpaces the ratio of transactions across the network, the price of the asset has risen past its fair market value, and is due for a correction.
Related Reading | Experts Weigh In On The Future of Bitcoin and Blockchain
The NVT indicator reached its highest peak of the last few years when Bitcoin reached its recent local top of $14,000 – a peak that was higher than even Bitcoin’s $20,000 all-time high.
However, even though the indicator work like a charm, predicting a nearly 50% fall from that top to under $8,000, Woo says that the indicator has become less reliable due to private transactions clouding the clarity of the results.

I quite like this dynamic ranging NVTS. I did something similar with NVT and quietly updated the chart last month.
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) October 10, 2019

But another crypto analyst has further honed the helpful top and bottom-calling tool, and created a version of the NVT signal that tracks the signal against a “dynamic” two-year, “long-term range.”
This new version of the indicator shows that Bitcoin’s NVT ratio has reached an ideal buy zone – typically acting as the bottom of a local cycle and providing the greatest financial opportunity in terms of eventual return on investment.
Previous Version Still Accurate, Predicted September Drop to $8,000
At the end of July, almost two full months ahead of the actual drop following the disappointing launch of Bakkt, the NVT signal had predicted that Bitcoin had topped out, and was due for a correction.
Each time the asset’s NVT signal peaked, on average the asset dropped over 50%. Bitcoin’s recent local top was $14,000, and fell just shy of reaching a full 50% retracement. However, the correction may not be over, and a full 50% or greater drop isn’t off the table just yet.
Related Reading | Bitcoin NVT Ratio: Top Predicting Signal Hits Highest Peak, Is a 50% Drop Ahead?
With the regular unfiltered version of the NVT signal being so accurate in calling tops, could this new, modified version of the indicator be even more accurate at calling bottoms – just as it is doing so now?
Featured image from Shutterstock
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Source: New

Bitcoin [BTC] Makes Recovery Above $8000 – Here’s Why Some Analysts are Bullish

After a week of bearish moves, Bitcoin [BTC] price made a slight recovery on Friday. The rise attempted to break above the 200-Day Moving average, which acted as a resistance. It recorded a high at $8294.
The price of BTC at 3: 30 hours UTC on 28th September 2019 is $8176. It is trading 2.27% higher on a daily scale. The entire crypto market turned slightly green after a week of aggressive selling.
BTC/USD 4-Hour Chart on Bitstamp (TradingView)
While some traders see this as a momentary correction, others are also seeing a reversal.
The bears are eyeing sub $5k levels for a good entry point. However, it echoes with the situation earlier in Q1 this year. While the price has been bearish, the overall sentiments are bullish.
Moreover, even on the downside, crypto traders will be looking for a buying opportunity. UglyOldGoat, crypto trader and analyst tweeted on a sub $5k prediction,
Just as I was bullish at 3,500 bearish at over 11,500 I can only be bullish at 7800 – 8200. Bakkt is bullish and structure changed when we rekt weak specs with future backwardation. The good thing is Bitcoin will be right regardless.
On-chain Vs. Price Movements
The recent uncertainty in price seems to be rising from opposing views of fundamental and technical analyses.
Bitcoin mining hashrate is at an all-time high, the transaction volume and realized price has also increased considerably. Moreover, long-term ‘hodlers‘ have also increased significantly. Leading on-chain analyst Willy Woo tweeted,
Structure is bullish, you can’t turn that around with a whiplash in price. Bull phases and bear phases of market cycles do not turn on a dime, especially on-chain.
However, the break-down below 200-Day Moving average is currently acting as a significant bear indicator. $7000-7500 has been the predicted range of this move. Sawcruhteez, a crypto-trader is turning bullish on technical indicators as well. He tweeted on why he is turning bullish, he said,

That was mainly due to the RSI bull div and the ADX rollover. I mentioned that final confirmation would come from a break of the 4 hour Lucid SAR, which just occurred. Now all systems are a go!

Bitcoin Price Analysis on the 4-Hour (Source: Twitter)
The next couple of weeks will be instrumental in confirming the year-end trend for Bitcoin. The speculations in Bitcoin [BTC] will further increase as halving comes closer well. The scheduled event in May 2020 has been creating a strong influence on market psychology.
Do you think December 2019 will be bullish or bearish? Please share your views with us. 
The post Bitcoin [BTC] Makes Recovery Above $8000 – Here’s Why Some Analysts are Bullish appeared first on Coingape.
Source: CoinGape

Analysts Predict Bitcoin Cash and Ethereum Doom – Will Altcoins Dive Further?

Tuesdays’ drop in Bitcoin price had more significant adverse effects on altcoins. Altcoins plunged by more than 15% on an average.
Ethereum [ETH] swiftly dropped below $200 psychological support to test lows at $150. Bitcoin [BCH] Cash, Litecoin [LTC], XRP also plummeted below support levels. The altcoins are closing in on the year to date rise due to revival of Bitcoin bears.
The plunge in altcoins was of gigantic proportions due to the violent price action in Bitcoin. Sawcruhteez, crypto-trader, and analyst suggested that a bounce is on the cards short term. However, his targets towards the end of October are near $130.
ETH/USD Price Analysis (Source: Twitter)
Bitcoin [BCH] Cash, Bitcoin SV, and EOS fell steepest among top ten cryptocurrencies. BCH has dropped more 22% to test lows near $220. According to leading chart analyst, Peter Brandt, there could be further downside to it.
He suggested a break-out from the bearish head and shoulders pattern on a daily scale in BCH/USD. The formation of the pattern has been panned out from about five months.

$BCH target is 127.50.
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) September 24, 2019

Notably, most top altcoins followed a similar pattern of rising and fall. They have moved together in tandem this year. Hence, a drastic drop in the price of one of the top altcoins could act as a catalyst for others as well.
The total market capitalization of altcoins broke below the 200-Day Moving Average on the daily and weekly. It was currently tested the consolidation levels before the break-out in 2017. However, the momentum is reversed this time.
Altcoin Market Capitalization Weekly Chart Excluding Bitcoin (TradingView)
The dominance of Bitcoin [BTC] is again closing near 70%. Willy Woo’s had suggested earlier from the altcoin cap/bitcoin that it is currently testing a critical support level. More than 5% drop this level can initiate another round of bears. He said,
If this level fails, I’d expect roughly a 60% drop relative to Bitcoin’s cap before we some the next area of support.
Altcoin/Bitcoin Price Analysis (Source: Twitter)
Currently, Bitcoin’s [BTC] price is looking to hold the psychological support level at $8500. A revival or further drop in Bitcoin will act as a cue for altcoins as well.
Do you think altcoins will reach its bearish targets or bounce before? Please share your views with us. 
The post Analysts Predict Bitcoin Cash and Ethereum Doom – Will Altcoins Dive Further? appeared first on Coingape.
Source: CoinGape

Bitcoin Price Unlikely to Fall Under $9,200; Here’s Why

Bitcoin has, to put it lightly, seen a helluva past 48 hours. On Wednesday night/Thursday morning, the BTC price plunged by nearly $600 out of nowhere, dropping the cryptocurrency to $9,600 from $10,150.
Related Reaidng: Prominent Bitcoin Analyst Says Altcoin Carnage May Soon End: Here’s Why
Many traders immediately saw this as a sign that BTC was going to collapse lower, as it would have then resolved to the downside of a long-term descending triangle that has haunted bulls for months.
But, just as fast as Bitcoin plummeted, it rocketed back up. On Thursday, the cryptocurrency surged back through the key $10,000 support all the way to $10,300, managing to regain all the losses that it incurred just hours prior.

This confusing price action has left many traders stumped, wondering exactly what this odd bout of volatility implies for Bitcoin holders. According to a popular analyst, Bitcoin is decidedly in a bull trend, and shouldn’t fall much further should bears manage to take over.
Bitcoin Price Still in Strong Spot
According to CryptoKea, the worst-case scenario per his analysis of the Mayer Multiple (MM) — defined by putting BTC’s current price over its 200-day moving average — the “worst-case scenario” would see Bitcoin fall to a maximum of $9,200 over the next few days, no lower.
In an extensive Twitter thread that weighed on historical price action and trends, the analyst noted that he came to this conclusion by overlaying Bitcoin’s price action prior to the 2016 halving on the current chart, using MM readings to determine price ranges.

53/ UPDATE: Based on, we have 226 days to go until the next halving (error in prior version: 144 days). So, how is BTC price in terms of Mayer Multiple (MM) doing compared to this time before halving 1 & 2?
Let´s have a closer look @TraceMayer
— CryptoKea (@CryptoKea) September 19, 2019

His model shows that the “lows [could] be behind us in a few days”. Kea did admit that this wasn’t an explicit price prediction or target, but using historical analysis to determine Bitcoin’s trends has proven to be very useful in the past.
Kea isn’t the only one pointing towards the importance of the low-$9,000s. Prominent trader Josh Rager recently noted that the $9,400 support is a level of key importance, as BTC managed to bounce off it on three separate occasions.
The fact that Bitcoin didn’t sweep that low — or the one that Kea mentioned, for that matter — is a clear sign that bulls remain in control of the Bitcoin price, depends the critics asserting that the cryptocurrency is in somewhat of an “echo bubble”.

Not really worried unless price breaks and closes below $9400 again
This is the area to keep an eye on
— Josh Rager (@Josh_Rager) September 19, 2019

Willy Woo, a partner for Adaptive Capital and a prominent on-chain metrics analyst for Bitcoin, has also remained bullish. In a recent stream published to the channel of trader Tone Vays, Woo explained that he is still seeing that Bitcoin is in an “expansion” phase — which is often seen in bull markets, he proposes — not an unwinding of the January to June rally as some cynics have suggested.

Woo went on to point out that the Realized Price — an indicator effectively giving insight into how much the market pay for each Bitcoin — is currently looking much like it did during the early stages of the previous bull market.
History repeating would see a breakout to the upside in the coming months, one that could potentially bring BTC to trade on an order of magnitude about the 10,000s.
Related Reading: “Bitcoin Price Rocket Fuel”: Trump Lambasts Federal Reserve After Rate Cut
Featured Image from Shutterstock
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Source: New

Analyst Predicts 60% Drop in Altcoins Relative to Bitcoin [BTC] MCap

Bitcoin [BTC] closed  6.5% higher at $10,400 on a weekly scale. The week saw another altcoin dumping as Bitcoins dominance crossed above 70%. Nevertheless, the alts have made a brief comeback during the weekend. While the gains are slight, this is one of the very few instances of altcoin rise relative to BTC this year.
Crypto analyst Willy Woo, however, suggests that this rise has could be temporary. He said in a tweet,
Though locally oversold and may see some bounce in coming weeks, longer term, into 2020, I can’t see these levels holding (relative to Bitcoin).
Currently, altcoins are testing their three-year support w.r.t BTC. The weekly RSI of altcoins with respect to Bitcoin’s Market capitalization is currently oversold. This could be a level of reversal. However, Woo suggested that room to grow is not very large. According to him, the next rise could be one of the last attempts for altcoin revival.
ETH/BTC 1-Week Chart on Bittrex (TradingView)
Moreover, while Bitcoin is finding utility as a store of value, the fundamentals and regulation around altcoins have been weak post the ICO bubble of 2017.
Cryptocurrency MarketCap Relative to Bitcoin (Source: Tweet)
According to him, the parity between Bitcoin and crypto market was close before 2016. However, due to the ICO scams and fraudulent investment schemes, the price blew-up in a bubble.
Here’s the same data visualised on the price domain. Total crypto cap priced in BTC supply.
The 2017 gap that opened up was made of ponzi fluff, ERC20 ICOs investing in other ERC20 ICOs blowing up their combined caps like a fiat money printing machine.
Furthermore, while the rise in Bitcoin was tremendous as well during the 2017 bubble. The rise in altcoins was astronomic. Ripple, for instance, recorded yearly gains near 19000% through 2017. Hence, he feels that the correction to those levels hasn’t occurred yet. The current sentiments are nowhere near hyped value.
Altcoin MCap/BTC MCap Analysis (Source: Twitter)
According to Woo, altcoins will continue losing value w.r.t to Bitcoin. Therefore, the only chance of a rise in value is if the Bitcoin price continues to grow upwards. He says as they are testing the lows on the trendline with Bitcoin, this level could be the last area of support. He tweeted,
If this level fails, I’d expect roughly a 60% drop relative to Bitcoin’s cap before we some the next area of support.
Willy Woo is also a Bitcoin bull. Hence, this time if Bitcoin reaches $20,000, the dominance of bitcoin over the crypto-market could be bear near 83%. Coincidentally, it also aligns with the psychological levels in the market established by Max Keizer’s similar prediction. During the 2017 run, it was less than 50%.
Do you have any additions or comments on Woo’s analysis? Please share your views with us. 
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Source: CoinGape

Analysts Suggest Why Bitcoin is a More Cost Effective Store of value than Gold

Bitcoin [BTC] is an emerging asset class. While crypto-enthusiasts continue to criticize its technical prowess compared to the newer cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin is highly efficient to Gold – the number one ‘safe haven.‘
Both Bitcoin and gold make a good store of value due to their limited supply. While Gold has 1000 years of history behind it, Bitcoin has also gained importance its alternative in the past ten years.
Moreover, due to the digital nature of Bitcoin, it is far more convenient and cost-efficient. Recently. Nic Carter and Willy Woo estimated one aspect of Bitcoin’s intrinsic value debate – the cost of production and verifications. According to Woo’s estimate based on Coinmetrics data, the average fees paid for Bitcoin transactions over the years is just 0.0005%.
According to Coinmetrics data, the total amount of value moved in Bitcoin has surpassed $2 trillion. Furthermore, the cost of mining (electricity, equipment, maintenance, etc.) is around $14 billion. Willy Woo, crypto-analyst and trader, tweeted,
Economic metrics of Bitcoin, paraphrased:
– The current valuation of all coins: $182b
– Amount paid by the current holders: $100b
– Cost to bring these coins into existence: $14b
– Fees paid to move coins between holders: $1b
– Value transmitted by the network between holders: $2.0T
The estimates also suggest that the average investor has made about 82% profit on Bitcoin in the past ten years. Nevertheless, the volatility in the price over the years would find a varying response to that estimate.
Moreover, it also counters the criticism around Bitcoin’s intrinsic value. The economics of Bitcoin indicates that Bitcoin is indeed backed in the same way gold is. Moreover, Bitcoin is one step ahead of gold due to its low transaction fees. Nic Carter, the co-founder of Coinmetrics noted,
The high cost of verification leads to emergent outcomes, like gold being circulated in walled gardens (like the LBMA) or gold being easy to confiscate (exec. order 6102), or gold ending up in central banks. Cost of verification is everything.
On the other hand, the reduced cost of verification with Bitcoin makes it a useful ‘individual’ store of value. Gold is a long history and geopolitical existence; gold mines exist in specific areas only. Its density is also significant, which makes it difficult to carry in large amounts. Hence, it needs a lot of security, and large institutions end up managing it.
Moreover, with Bitcoin, a full node can be maintained for about $10/month. This contributes to the verification of the integrity of the transactions. Carter noted that “Gold is far costlier and more cumbersome to verify.”
Do you think Bitcoin is a better store of value that Gold? Please share your views with us. 
The post Analysts Suggest Why Bitcoin is a More Cost Effective Store of value than Gold appeared first on Coingape.
Source: CoinGape